Bitcoin and Fed Balance Sheet are pretty well correlated.
I think that's what bitcoin maximalists want to believe, but surely not true.
Don't pretend people know what bitcoin maximalist means.
Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
41–50 of 60 posts
Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#42Wild market manipulation / tinfoil hat thoughts: I wonder if that billion dollar wallet movement in the last few days could have any relation to this? A lot of retrospective analysis of the 2018 run found price painting and similar shady tactics by just a few actors drove the prices up substantially, used as an undergirding to the news hype cycle. If you had a billion dollars in today's bitcoin value to move, how muc…
Devils advocate against the tinfoil hat: If you weren't trying to do market manipulation, when would you make the move? It seems that waiting for the price to go up would be the time. As they say, playing the stock market is easy - just buy low and sell high.
Edit: Now we know its actually US gov that moved it, so not market manipulation: https://www.vice.com/en/article/akdgz8/us-feds-seize-1-billi...
Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
To my eye, it looks like there is a plausible argument that BTC price innovations have a positive loading on Fed balance sheet growth. Can you link raw data? At this point, the marginal buyer is a leveraged investment firm. So, the hypothesis is not a crazy one.
I'm afraid I don't have the raw data.
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Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#44Earlier quoted context omitted.
Plenty of criticisms to be had about bitcoin's scalability but what you said isn't true. Quite a bit has changed with the prevalance of Segwit transactions, some-to-many Lightning transactions, a lot of Liquid transactions, and transaction bundling. Specifically in reaction to how the network convulsed last bull market and correction. Yeah it still sucks and is hardly competitive especially on the layer-2 front, but…
Yes things have been done, but nothing that's effective. Any layer-2 solution is just a dead end as you still have to pay the high fees to enter and exit. And it's funny, and sad, that you bring up Liquid as a potential solution because it's a centralized solution and we might as well be content with PayPal if we're going that route.
I don't consider it a solution, I consider it a reality.
If you want to transact in unlimited amounts very quickly, there are extremely viable options. If you then want to pay a little bit more to custody your asset in the most secure way onchain, you can do that. Let's step back and look at the criticism: we are still talking about nearly instant on-chain settlement, and by instant I mean within an hour, at any time of day any day of the week.
We are talking about fees lower than what trading commissions were for decades, but being mad that it isn't simultaneously better than merchant processing fees or for poor people all the time.
There is just a parallel world here with plenty of options, completely accessible now with atomic swaps or bonded minting/burning in a way that wasn't available even just two years ago. The exchanges are mostly irrelevant except the largest fiat onramps, which have recently expanded too.
That's where we are. If the market really wants to get frothy this time, I think the capacity is quite ready. And for things that aren't ready due to programming or people just not using them, they incentivize is there to be a catalyst.
Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#45It will probably fall. Unlick stocks, Bitcoin is purely a function of supply an demand, with no intrinsic value. It is not like Amazon stock gains, which hold. Commodities always have a tendency of giving up gains and lagging stocks, because no shareholder equity can be generated and the supply is always increasing.
Someone has been licking stocks again. If I had a staoshi for each person that said it would go down! It will probably go down. It will probably go back up. It will always go back up, as long as there is a general belief in the population that the tech is worth the cost of running it. Bitcoin is valuable because it represents an immutable data store which is difficult to change - much like "stocks". The value an immu…
but how does this translate into bitcoin being worth hundreds of billions of dollars? PHP and Javascript are free and used way more than bitcoin, but is it worth hundreds of billions?
Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
Plenty of criticisms to be had about bitcoin's scalability but what you said isn't true. Quite a bit has changed with the prevalance of Segwit transactions, some-to-many Lightning transactions, a lot of Liquid transactions, and transaction bundling. Specifically in reaction to how the network convulsed last bull market and correction. Yeah it still sucks and is hardly competitive especially on the layer-2 front, but…
Yes things have been done, but nothing that's effective. Any layer-2 solution is just a dead end as you still have to pay the high fees to enter and exit. And it's funny, and sad, that you bring up Liquid as a potential solution because it's a centralized solution and we might as well be content with PayPal if we're going that route.
what high fees to enter and exit. Lightning fees are very low (typically( about 0.00001 pence. Liquid is not needed for lightning. As an end user you can use a lightning wallet and enjoy fast lowest fee transactions.
Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#47Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes things have been done, but nothing that's effective. Any layer-2 solution is just a dead end as you still have to pay the high fees to enter and exit. And it's funny, and sad, that you bring up Liquid as a potential solution because it's a centralized solution and we might as well be content with PayPal if we're going that route.
what high fees to enter and exit. Lightning fees are very low (typically( about 0.00001 pence. Liquid is not needed for lightning. As an end user you can use a lightning wallet and enjoy fast lowest fee transactions.
You need to pay for an expensive on-chain Bitcoin transaction before you can use Lightning. You must also have enough money so you can pay for another on-chain transaction if the channel closes and you must issue a dispute to not lose your funds.
Did I mention that if you open a channel to the wrong hub, you must open yet another channel, with all associated costs?
It's ridiculous to even entertain Lightning as a viable option when there are other low-fee and fully functioning cryptocurrencies that aren't gimped by a tiny blocksize.
Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
But it all depends on the demand. Which is not baked in. So your insight is not very insightful.
If you want a third data point, add the trend. Obviously demand is greater than supply and it has been for over 10 years now.
That's not true. The demand depends on the liquidity (available supply for trading) and the price, among other things. There have been many cases in the last 10 years when the demand went down.
Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
I haven't really been following Bitcoin much recently, but I don't disagree that Tether can have a huge effect. But that's not what you said. You said $15,000 usdT, which is incorrect.
It's 90%+ correct. Almost all trading volume is in Tether, which is erroneously assumed to be 1:1 with usd. Once the "bank run" on tether happens it'll be revealed that most of their billions are not backed by anything and the actual btc:usd price will become clear
you're original statement was wrong, so you were wrong.
Admit it and move on because changing topics midstream doesn't fool anyone and just exposes how flimsy your reasoning was to begin with.
Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#50Any article about Bitcoin price should mention Tether and how $7B worth of these supposedly USD-backed tokens have been printed recently. There's no evidence that Tether is backed by anything, yet these newly minted cryptodollars are used to buy Bitcoin and thus pump up the price. It's not that different from Fed stimulus creating money that ends up being used to buy stocks and inflating prices across the market. Fed…
It's mind boggling, few guys in some offshore company claim to be holding almost 17 billion dollars in cash somewhere when it was revealed they were kicked out of all the banks they attempted to use, and they keep printing money in the billions with no consequences
It is quite striking. If you look at the graph way more were printed recently than in the last boom https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/
I wonder if the end game has a Tether collapse?