Bitcoin and Fed Balance Sheet are pretty well correlated.
If by "pretty well" you mean "not at all"...
Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
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Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#12Bitcoin and Fed Balance Sheet are pretty well correlated.
so two things that have gone up are corrected. fantastic insight.
Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#13It will probably fall. Unlick stocks, Bitcoin is purely a function of supply an demand, with no intrinsic value. It is not like Amazon stock gains, which hold. Commodities always have a tendency of giving up gains and lagging stocks, because no shareholder equity can be generated and the supply is always increasing.
Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#14Bitcoin and Fed Balance Sheet are pretty well correlated.
If by "pretty well" you mean "not at all"... https://ibb.co/z7vgwSd https://ibb.co/Zhqzdxk
To my eye, it looks like there is a plausible argument that BTC price innovations have a positive loading on Fed balance sheet growth.
Can you link raw data?
At this point, the marginal buyer is a leveraged investment firm. So, the hypothesis is not a crazy one.
Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#15Earlier quoted context omitted.
If by "pretty well" you mean "not at all"... https://ibb.co/z7vgwSd https://ibb.co/Zhqzdxk
To my eye, it looks like there is a plausible argument that BTC price innovations have a positive loading on Fed balance sheet growth. Can you link raw data? At this point, the marginal buyer is a leveraged investment firm. So, the hypothesis is not a crazy one.
I'm afraid I don't have the raw data.
Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#16Wild market manipulation / tinfoil hat thoughts: I wonder if that billion dollar wallet movement in the last few days could have any relation to this?
A lot of retrospective analysis of the 2018 run found price painting and similar shady tactics by just a few actors drove the prices up substantially, used as an undergirding to the news hype cycle.
If you had a billion dollars in today's bitcoin value to move, how much could you increase your take for say, $50 million 'invested' in paying price-painting experts to generate bitcoin hype news?
Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#17Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#18Wild market manipulation / tinfoil hat thoughts: I wonder if that billion dollar wallet movement in the last few days could have any relation to this? A lot of retrospective analysis of the 2018 run found price painting and similar shady tactics by just a few actors drove the prices up substantially, used as an undergirding to the news hype cycle. If you had a billion dollars in today's bitcoin value to move, how muc…
the $1 billion moving should j have been bad for bitcoin because the assumption was those coins were either lost for good or forgotten. now the supply has increased by $1 billion.
Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#19It will probably fall. Unlick stocks, Bitcoin is purely a function of supply an demand, with no intrinsic value. It is not like Amazon stock gains, which hold. Commodities always have a tendency of giving up gains and lagging stocks, because no shareholder equity can be generated and the supply is always increasing.
Someone has been licking stocks again. If I had a staoshi for each person that said it would go down! It will probably go down. It will probably go back up. It will always go back up, as long as there is a general belief in the population that the tech is worth the cost of running it.
Bitcoin is valuable because it represents an immutable data store which is difficult to change - much like "stocks". The value an immutable-like data stores presents to some business models is more valuable than the idea of publicly traded stock to others.
For example, I could hook up a Bitcoin transaction to this POST, and do it without any authentication or credit card number, yet it would still be paid and secure. That is available to everyone today in the form of Lightning. Once more business models, such as those backed by ML adopt these types of micropayments, there will be no stopping Bitcoin, whether you lick stocks or not.
Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#20It will probably fall. Unlick stocks, Bitcoin is purely a function of supply an demand, with no intrinsic value. It is not like Amazon stock gains, which hold. Commodities always have a tendency of giving up gains and lagging stocks, because no shareholder equity can be generated and the supply is always increasing.
and that's not controversial.
perma-bulls should never be in the commodities markets and typically aren't.
they should stay married to the framed stock certificate their grandma gave them and stay out of this market.