No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday • Hacker News Board

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#261

Post by jackvalentine » Mon, Nov 02, 2020, 1:24 AM UTC

nickthemagicman wrote: post #220

graeme wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plenty of countries have maintained local transmission at zero or near zero thanks to travel restrictions: taiwan, vietnam, new zealand, the Atlantic region of Canada, Thailand The virus isn’t magic. If you have a testing and tracing system in place and act quickly with temporary restrictions you can squash any outbreaks that do make it through. And meanwhile life in those areas is basically normal. I’m in one now. F…

Or just lucky? We know the virus is asymptomatic yet contagious in people for weeks. All it takes is for one low paid person at a checkpoint to have a bad day or be bribed and let an infected person through and you have a pandemic again. Additionally the tests aren't 100% accurate so even with perfect testing of borders someone could slip by given a large enough sample size. I think those countries have either: 1. Re…

Any excuse to wave away the possibility that competent government and a society that is willing to take a temporary hit for a bigger goal is possible right?

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#262

Post by Zarel » Mon, Nov 02, 2020, 1:25 AM UTC

nickthemagicman wrote: post #220

graeme wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plenty of countries have maintained local transmission at zero or near zero thanks to travel restrictions: taiwan, vietnam, new zealand, the Atlantic region of Canada, Thailand The virus isn’t magic. If you have a testing and tracing system in place and act quickly with temporary restrictions you can squash any outbreaks that do make it through. And meanwhile life in those areas is basically normal. I’m in one now. F…

Or just lucky? We know the virus is asymptomatic yet contagious in people for weeks. All it takes is for one low paid person at a checkpoint to have a bad day or be bribed and let an infected person through and you have a pandemic again. Additionally the tests aren't 100% accurate so even with perfect testing of borders someone could slip by given a large enough sample size. I think those countries have either: 1. Re…

There's no testing at borders in the countries I'm aware of that have eliminated COVID-19. How it works is that very few people are allowed in at all, and every single person who _is_ allowed in is force-quarantined for two weeks in facilities specifically built/converted for secure quarantine. Outbreaks that _have_ happened tend to start from guards in quarantine facilities, not from someone slipping by border security (which is hard to mess up if you let in single-digit numbers of people per day).

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#263

Post by freddie_mercury » Mon, Nov 02, 2020, 1:35 AM UTC

apexalpha wrote: post #146

freddie_mercury wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in Vietnam. It is neither a small island nor on a remote corner of the planet. We have a population of 95,000,000 people -- substantially more than any single country in Europe -- and share land borders China, Cambodia, and Laos as well as being within trivial sailing distance of Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Hong Kong. We have had 0 cases for over 2 months. You should stop with the "it i…

That's really great and you did far better than Europe, no doubt about it. But the borders vietnam shares with those countries are hard borders. You need a visa and pass a government controlled checkpoint when you enter. Europe (mainland) has no internal borders. There are no checkpoints, customs agents or chokepoints between countries. There's thousands of roads leading from every country into others. That, plus the…

> But the borders vietnam shares with those countries are hard borders. You need a visa and pass a government controlled checkpoint when you enter.

As someone who lives in Vietnam, I think your conception of the hardness of the borders is mistaken. The land border with Vietnam-China is 1,300 kilometers long. That's longer than Germany's combined border with the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, and France.

"The 1,400km border between Vietnam and China is extremely porous, with a complicated geography characterised by mountains and rivers – especially in the north – that makes it difficult to monitor cross-border traffic, according to Mimi Vu, an independent Vietnamese-American anti-trafficking expert based in Saigon."

> Europe (mainland) has no internal borders. There are no checkpoints, customs agents or chokepoints between countries.

Yes it does. Germany closed its borders on March 16.

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/germany-introduces-bor...

France, Spain, and Italy also closed their borders. Something like a dozen countries in the EU closed their borders.

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#264

Post by graeme » Mon, Nov 02, 2020, 2:01 AM UTC

nickthemagicman wrote: post #220

graeme wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plenty of countries have maintained local transmission at zero or near zero thanks to travel restrictions: taiwan, vietnam, new zealand, the Atlantic region of Canada, Thailand The virus isn’t magic. If you have a testing and tracing system in place and act quickly with temporary restrictions you can squash any outbreaks that do make it through. And meanwhile life in those areas is basically normal. I’m in one now. F…

Or just lucky? We know the virus is asymptomatic yet contagious in people for weeks. All it takes is for one low paid person at a checkpoint to have a bad day or be bribed and let an infected person through and you have a pandemic again. Additionally the tests aren't 100% accurate so even with perfect testing of borders someone could slip by given a large enough sample size. I think those countries have either: 1. Re…

You’ve got some heavily inaccurate assumptions about how the virus spreads. Most infected people spread to nobody, even without restrictions. The bulk of spread happens in clusters in poorly ventilated indoor environments. The household attack rate is something like 17%. That’s people living in the same house. 83% of people don’t get it!

To have a sustained outbreak breach quarantine, you’d need:

1. An infected person to arrive (probably less than 2% of arrivals are infected)

2. This infected person must breach isolation protocol. (Most people are honest or fear or penalties)

3. They must be infectious when they breach protocol (you are only very infectious for five days or so)

4. They must go to a place apt to superspreading (not everyone breaching isolation will go to a bar or a party)

5. The newly infected must all remain asymptomatic and not seek testing

6. Once community spread is detected, the government must delay taking action, fail to contact trace, and avoid implementing new measures

This is obviously possible. Outbreaks have happened in Australia, Vietnam, New Zealand, New Brunswick. But it is much, much less likely than you suggest, which is why you’re being downvoted: you’re completely failing to consider the system dynamics.

And in each case step 6 has put things back on track pretty quick. Australia is the exception, but there the local government was slow to respond and so they needed a big, long lockdown. Other areas responded quickly and so the necessary lockdown has been short.

I’m in the Atlantic bubble. Frankly it leaks like a sieve and yet it’s still been enough to keep out infections for now.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overloo...

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#265

Post by DrJones1098 » Mon, Nov 02, 2020, 2:02 AM UTC

jackvalentine wrote: post #261

nickthemagicman wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or just lucky? We know the virus is asymptomatic yet contagious in people for weeks. All it takes is for one low paid person at a checkpoint to have a bad day or be bribed and let an infected person through and you have a pandemic again. Additionally the tests aren't 100% accurate so even with perfect testing of borders someone could slip by given a large enough sample size. I think those countries have either: 1. Re…

Any excuse to wave away the possibility that competent government and a society that is willing to take a temporary hit for a bigger goal is possible right?

First of all, throughout all of recorded history, when has government been competent in caring for it's subjects needs?

When it had its foot on the neck of the peasants for a thousand years during Egyptian times or a thousand years during medieval times?

The only thing that ended massive repression by the government during the middle ages, was the black plague which killed indiscriminately and allowed redistribution of the wealth and subsequently the enlightenment.

What about when gov't started started holocausts, genocides, crusades?

When it invaded Vietnam and many of the other frivolous wars the human race has been in?

This is not hand wavy this is history.

SECOND OF ALL, this is not a temporary hit this is permanently hurting hundreds of millions of peoples lives increasing real poverty around the world destroying small businesses and people's livelihoods.

This is rewriting society and culture.

This is increasing homelessness, suicide, drug addiction and overdoses and more.

If you think this is a temporary hit you and the rest of the people like you are truly in your own bubble.

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#266

Post by nickthemagicman » Mon, Nov 02, 2020, 2:05 AM UTC

Zarel wrote: post #262

nickthemagicman wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or just lucky? We know the virus is asymptomatic yet contagious in people for weeks. All it takes is for one low paid person at a checkpoint to have a bad day or be bribed and let an infected person through and you have a pandemic again. Additionally the tests aren't 100% accurate so even with perfect testing of borders someone could slip by given a large enough sample size. I think those countries have either: 1. Re…

There's no testing at borders in the countries I'm aware of that have eliminated COVID-19. How it works is that very few people are allowed in at all, and every single person who _is_ allowed in is force-quarantined for two weeks in facilities specifically built/converted for secure quarantine. Outbreaks that _have_ happened tend to start from guards in quarantine facilities, not from someone slipping by border secur…

Something like 3% of the population in America is illegally immigrants, that's millions of people.

And we have a huge border control service.

Are you arguing that it's possible to close the borders in the United States? Like that is an actual option?

Do you think other countries don't have illegal immigration as well?

Do you think those illegal immigrants are going to voluntarily present themselves to get tested?

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#267

Post by nickthemagicman » Mon, Nov 02, 2020, 2:14 AM UTC

graeme wrote: post #264

nickthemagicman wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or just lucky? We know the virus is asymptomatic yet contagious in people for weeks. All it takes is for one low paid person at a checkpoint to have a bad day or be bribed and let an infected person through and you have a pandemic again. Additionally the tests aren't 100% accurate so even with perfect testing of borders someone could slip by given a large enough sample size. I think those countries have either: 1. Re…

You’ve got some heavily inaccurate assumptions about how the virus spreads. Most infected people spread to nobody, even without restrictions. The bulk of spread happens in clusters in poorly ventilated indoor environments. The household attack rate is something like 17%. That’s people living in the same house. 83% of people don’t get it! To have a sustained outbreak breach quarantine, you’d need: 1. An infected perso…

I think a lot of what you said doesn't take into account how actual reality works.

I think the system dynamics you're using may be purely academic.

I was saying one person as an example...but America has millions of undocumented people that snuck across the border here. Do you honestly think other countries don't?

Borders are very fluid.

Humans are social creatures by nature. They're going to come into infectious proximity of hundreds if not thousands of people a week at grocery stores, restaraunts, gas stations, bars, salons, etc.

Also theres's science showing corona virus stays on surfaces for days which means if they cough on a surface like a doorknob that can spread to people they weren't in contact with.

Contact tracing is useless.

Like I said.. once again.. youre just lucky and are patting yourself on the back too soon... or your region has reached some form of herd immunity.

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#268

Post by nickthemagicman » Mon, Nov 02, 2020, 2:36 AM UTC

doubleunplussed wrote: post #254

nickthemagicman wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is that possible given that the virus spreads so rapidly, asymptomatic people can spread the virus, and the tests aren't 100% accurate and population size is large? By the time an out break is identified hundreds or thousands of people have possibly been infected.

It's not asymptomatic enough, not infectious enough, for that to be impossible. Multiple Australian states have demonstrated this, as have China, New Zealand, Taiwan and a few others. If every time you get a symptomatic case that tests positive, you isolate contacts and secondary contacts, you will have isolated enough of the asymptomatic cases and false negative tests to get R < 1 and halt the spread of the virus.

If they go to the grocery store that's hundreds of people they contact potentially.

Its odd that you believe that only contacts and secondary contacts are susceptible.

With an natural r naught of three and the and the fact that it stays on surfaces for days...it's just a matter of time until another outbreak happens.

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#269

Post by doubleunplussed » Mon, Nov 02, 2020, 6:32 AM UTC

nickthemagicman wrote: post #268

doubleunplussed wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not asymptomatic enough, not infectious enough, for that to be impossible. Multiple Australian states have demonstrated this, as have China, New Zealand, Taiwan and a few others. If every time you get a symptomatic case that tests positive, you isolate contacts and secondary contacts, you will have isolated enough of the asymptomatic cases and false negative tests to get R < 1 and halt the spread of the virus.

If they go to the grocery store that's hundreds of people they contact potentially. Its odd that you believe that only contacts and secondary contacts are susceptible. With an natural r naught of three and the and the fact that it stays on surfaces for days...it's just a matter of time until another outbreak happens.

I'm telling you, empirically if you do this, the virus goes away.

The proof is in the pudding: we are seeing this strategy work.

Those grocery store shoppers might be susceptible, but it turns out that not enough of them get infected for this strategy to fail if it is stuck to for long enough.

I'm posting this from Victoria, where we've had zero new COVID cases for three days now. I'm telling you, it works.

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#270

Post by 0xfaded » Mon, Nov 02, 2020, 7:18 AM UTC

Devils-Avocado wrote: post #235

0xfaded wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's 25 grand per person. If life goes back to normal for Australians for 1-2 years before everyone else, that's a bargain. Considering that the Australian economy is based on digging and has an economic complexity just below Uganda[0], most of that damage was unavoidable anyway. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Complexity_Index

Australia will be the slowest to go back to normal since they will need to maintain national quarantine forever - until a suitable vaccine is found and administered. $25,000 per person is a huge amount of money, far greater than for any national scheme, ever. Probably approaching Australia's expenditure for a world war or major international conflict. Keep in mind that currently in Europe - there is very limited exce…

Well, my parents live in Perth. They've been living a normal existence since May.

Monetarily, it's no different than any other medical expenditure. Would you spend 25k for an extra year of normal life? What about if you're 20-30?

Colour me jealous.