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No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

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Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#221

Post by DanBC »

nradov wrote: post #219
DanBC wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the current IFR of about 1% is the best case with current treatment options. It was much higher earlier on.

No the current IFR is significantly less than 1%. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...

Those are not real IFRs, those are estimates used for planning scenarios. Also, they don't include anyone over the age of 80.

> The parameters in the scenarios:

> Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning.

> Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.

> Do not reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions.

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#222

Post by nradov »

lostlogin wrote: post #198
dageshi wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's somewhat easier to accomplish that when both countries are islands and the majority of incoming traffic is by air.

It is. Plenty of other islands have done poorly though. Britain and Hawaii come to mind.

Hawaii has actually done fairly well with only 155 deaths per 1M residents.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/hawaii/

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#223

Post by nickthemagicman »

jberryman wrote: post #148
DrJones1098 wrote: post #124

So they achieved 0 infections without herd immunity via natural means or a vaccine? Isn't that a temporary win? Once a person enters the country with the virus its back on. Are we pattong our selves on the back too soon for these kinds of wins? The modern news cycle is so short sighted that the media makes money off this kind of thing without reporting the full picture.

I think the idea is to suppress numbers via lockdown to the point where contact tracing, along with ubiquitous testing, can detect and squash any local outbreaks before they spread widely, and people can live somewhat normally. Afaict that has been the plan all along in the US as well (in terms of what scientists and infectious disease experts were saying), but most states and the administration gave up on that month…

How is that possible given that the virus spreads so rapidly, asymptomatic people can spread the virus, and the tests aren't 100% accurate and population size is large?

By the time an out break is identified hundreds or thousands of people have possibly been infected.

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#224

Post by DrJones1098 »

chillacy wrote: post #166
DrJones1098 wrote: post #124

So they achieved 0 infections without herd immunity via natural means or a vaccine? Isn't that a temporary win? Once a person enters the country with the virus its back on. Are we pattong our selves on the back too soon for these kinds of wins? The modern news cycle is so short sighted that the media makes money off this kind of thing without reporting the full picture.

The US makes visitors get certain vaccinations before being able to visit https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/immigrat... Assuming a vaccine comes out, Australia can make US visitors get vaccinated before visiting.

When and if a vaccine comes out.

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#225

Post by nickthemagicman »

angry_octet wrote: post #181
nickthemagicman wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thailand never had a bad outbreak to begin with and no one knows why. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/world/asia/coronavirus-th... Also, isn't Thailand a dictatorship where if you insult the royal family verbally you can be beheaded?

Just put in prison. With the new King there is a lot to be critical of, but for whatever reason he has held back on imprisoning people. The junta has nevertheless been quite harsh on critics of the regime.

Oh that's right 3 to 15 years of prison for criticizing the royal family....that's as fascist as it gets. Not a great model for any country to aspire to.

How do we know Thailand isn't just executing anyone testing positive for Coronavirus?

Would anyone report it if true with free speech laws like that?

Pandemic Problem solved!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%C3%A8se_majest%C3%A9_in_Th...

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#226

Post by evgen »

anoncake wrote: post #144
evgen wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And still sucking hind tit compared to Norway, Finland, and Denmark. But let's not let simple facts and data get in the way of your anti-lockdown fairy tale...

Saving 2-3 people a day objectively isn't worth any kind of lockdown.

Unless you happen to be one of those 2-3 people. Just let us know when you are ready to be sacrificed for the sake of the market, happy to oblige.

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#227

Post by doubleunplussed »

luckylion wrote: post #153
yorwba wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Land borders can be closed except for a few checkpoints, which serve as the equivalent of international airports (and seaports, don't forget about those). I don't know much about Australian geography, so I had to check on a map, but it looks like it's possible to travel from Melbourne to other parts of Australia over land. Apparently some measures were taken to prevent the virus from spreading along that route. Drivi…

> Land borders can be closed except for a few checkpoints, which serve as the equivalent of international airports (and seaports, don't forget about those). Not in continental Europe, not without involving the military.

So involve the military? Not seeing the problem here.

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#228

Post by 0xfaded »

apexalpha wrote: post #214
0xfaded wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm an Australian living in Europe, it's painful to keep hearing people say "it will never work in Europe", when it's been shown to work elsewhere in countries small to large, with borders or without. Borders can be shut, it was done earlier this year. Lockdowns can be enforced, it was done earlier this year. Governments can provide financial support, it's been happening all year. All this could be over in 4-6 months…

As you say, all of Europe went into lockdown earlier this year. Only for it to come back and keep growing. What makes you think another lockdown would eradicate it entirely in stead of it just coming back again?

It would take an actual eradication strategy to eradicate it entirely. The first lock down was all about lowering the curve, which i think now is plainly a mistake.

I also don't believe europe would be capable of implementing an eradication strategy. The required social capital has already been burned, and at no point has europe demonstrated it's ability to work together on this. Now we can only wait for the technocrats to deliver us salvation in the form of a vaccine.

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#229

Post by anoncake »

evgen wrote: post #226
anoncake wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Saving 2-3 people a day objectively isn't worth any kind of lockdown.

Unless you happen to be one of those 2-3 people. Just let us know when you are ready to be sacrificed for the sake of the market, happy to oblige.

Sweden has a population of 10 million. If 2 of them die, that means everyone has a chance of 0.00002% of being one of them. I'd be willing to take that "risk".

And I don't give a shit about the market.

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#230

Post by [deleted] »

DanBC wrote: post #221
nradov wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No the current IFR is significantly less than 1%. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...

Those are not real IFRs, those are estimates used for planning scenarios. Also, they don't include anyone over the age of 80. > The parameters in the scenarios: > Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning. > Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19. > Do not reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions.

[deleted]
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