Live data from Hacker News

Global circulation of influenza viruses in 2020

who.int

21–30 of 55 posts

Re: Global circulation of influenza viruses in 2020

#21
post #14

The title on HN is probably invented by the submitter, which is misleading and doesn‘t match the HN policy. The title on the page: “Influenza: FluNet Summary 26 October 2020 Source: Laboratory confirmed data from the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS).” It‘s also possible that those who would normally participate in the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System just weren‘t able to do w…

Apologies, I re-phrased the title to be accurate.

Re: Global circulation of influenza viruses in 2020

#22
81k is kind of a shitty sample size to make a sweeping worldwide judgement for 7+billion.

Next part, since the focus of 2020 was Covid testing, I'm pretty sure flu testing resources were lessened in the process, if not borderline ignored.

At what point was it okay to judge a population on 0.0000001157142% sample size?

While I'm not a fan of the WHO anymore, to be fair to them, where the hell do they say the flu disappeared? This title is disingenuous.

Re: Global circulation of influenza viruses in 2020

#23
post #18

Reading the graph posted, you may think we stopped tracking the flu. However, it's not clear yet whether that is the case, and the charts from 2019 show that. Here are the charts for 2019 and 2020 in the US*: https://imgur.com/a/HvBJoj2 (Note the axes are on different time scales unfortunately). They are very similar with two major exceptions. 1. Week 13, about March 23rd, there is a dip lower, presumably due to the…

Note the different horizontal axes been the graphs. The top one goes back up after week 43/44 which is about where the bottom one ends.

I know your text describes this but it's easy to look at the graphs and miss!

Re: Global circulation of influenza viruses in 2020

#24
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But this article is using flu-tests to test for specimens of the flu. Why would a lack of COVID tests mess up the flu-tests that they're using?

They didn't perform flu tests on all "covid" deaths.

But the vast majority of samples are coming from people who will ultimately survive, but who have respiratory illness. Anyhow, scientists have considered testing bias.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6937a6-H.pdf

“Initially, declines in influenza virus activity were attributed to decreased testing, because persons with respiratory symptoms were often preferentially referred for SARS-CoV-2 assessment and testing. However, renewed efforts by public health officials and clinicians to test samples for influenza resulted in adequate numbers tested and detection of little to no influenza virus.”

Re: Global circulation of influenza viruses in 2020

#25
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure why you are getting flagged. People not seeking medical assistance could be a reason why the sampling isn’t collecting any flu case.

Because they're not reported cases, but sampled cases, so whether reported goes up or down doesn't really matter as the sampling is consistent.

Saying that they are sampled cases doesn't mean anything about whether that number can be effected by other variables. Fewer tests would result in lower total positive results. So would people with flu symptoms actively avoiding being tested. Whether that's happening is an entirely valid question.

Re: Global circulation of influenza viruses in 2020

#26
The actual WHO Influenza update [1] rightfully adds a disclaimer:

> The current influenza surveillance data should be interpreted with caution as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic have influenced to varying extents health seeking behaviours, staffing/routines in sentinel sites, as well as testing priorities and capacities in Member States. The various hygiene and physical distancing measures implemented by Member States to reduce SARS-CoV-2 virus transmission have likely played a role in reducing influenza virus transmission.

But also:

> Globally, despite continued or even increased testing for influenza in some countries influenza activity remained at lower levels than expected for this time of the year.

[1]: https://www.who.int/influenza/surveillance_monitoring/update...

Re: Global circulation of influenza viruses in 2020

#27
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But this article is using flu-tests to test for specimens of the flu. Why would a lack of COVID tests mess up the flu-tests that they're using?

They didn't perform flu tests on all "covid" deaths.

Most people don't die from flu, so that means it might be underrepresented by 0.1%.

If anything, there's less testing for flu because of covid. But nonetheless, this is sampling, not testing, the WHO performs consistent randomized sampling over time to keep the data meaningful. If they just were based on testing of reported flu cases the data would be heavily biased and basically useless in tracking the disease.

Re: Global circulation of influenza viruses in 2020

#28
post #18

Reading the graph posted, you may think we stopped tracking the flu. However, it's not clear yet whether that is the case, and the charts from 2019 show that. Here are the charts for 2019 and 2020 in the US*: https://imgur.com/a/HvBJoj2 (Note the axes are on different time scales unfortunately). They are very similar with two major exceptions. 1. Week 13, about March 23rd, there is a dip lower, presumably due to the…

[deleted]

Re: Global circulation of influenza viruses in 2020

#29
post #18

Reading the graph posted, you may think we stopped tracking the flu. However, it's not clear yet whether that is the case, and the charts from 2019 show that. Here are the charts for 2019 and 2020 in the US*: https://imgur.com/a/HvBJoj2 (Note the axes are on different time scales unfortunately). They are very similar with two major exceptions. 1. Week 13, about March 23rd, there is a dip lower, presumably due to the…

Note the different horizontal axes been the graphs. The top one goes back up after week 43/44 which is about where the bottom one ends. I know your text describes this but it's easy to look at the graphs and miss!

I was about to post the same but both horizontal and vertical axes are different scales.

Re: Global circulation of influenza viruses in 2020

#30
post #18

Reading the graph posted, you may think we stopped tracking the flu. However, it's not clear yet whether that is the case, and the charts from 2019 show that. Here are the charts for 2019 and 2020 in the US*: https://imgur.com/a/HvBJoj2 (Note the axes are on different time scales unfortunately). They are very similar with two major exceptions. 1. Week 13, about March 23rd, there is a dip lower, presumably due to the…

Note the different horizontal axes been the graphs. The top one goes back up after week 43/44 which is about where the bottom one ends. I know your text describes this but it's easy to look at the graphs and miss!

I just updated my comment to clarify too. Unfortunately, the WHO only plots data for weeks that have occurred, so there's no way to extend match the two axes.
Post reply on HN