Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing? • Hacker News Board

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#211

Post by birdyrooster » Thu, Oct 29, 2020, 6:36 PM UTC

simonh wrote: post #45

lwneal wrote: post #20

In Peter Turchin's book War and Peace and War [1], the term "elite overproduction" does not refer to an overproduction of smart people, education, or college degrees. Instead, it refers to an overproduction of nobility , individuals who extract income but who do not perform useful work. For example, France during the population boom of the high middle ages overproduced knights and minor nobles from 1200-1300. The nob…

I don't think that's right, Turchin himself pointed out the "overproduction of young graduates with advanced degrees”. The problem is the inability of society to support an excess of people who expect to be in the elite. If the US really is producing 25,000 more lawyers per year than it can employ, that's a real problem. Multiply that across many other disciplines and that could easily be hundreds of thousands of peo…

It leads to tons of people owing student loans for law school degrees that are worthless because they can't pass the bar. The bar exam in many states has become more difficult to pass due to this over supply of new graduates. Culling the herds I guess.

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#212

Post by pksebben » Thu, Oct 29, 2020, 6:39 PM UTC

jahaja wrote: post #197

DubiousPusher wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, in fact direct agricultural labor accounts for fewer than a million jobs in the U.S. https://www.bls.gov/ooh/farming-fishing-and-forestry/agricul... One place where technology is struggling to make an impact is in housing. Even ignoring the farcical inflation of land prices in some municipalities, the price of a building itself has not decreased in cost similar to other durable goods. This is in part due to con…

The profit/investment motive is fundamentally behind the scarcity of affordable housing.

There's also the "protect-my-pie-ism" that skilled labor unions engage in. We have cheap alternatives to heavy metal pipes, but they're outlawed in a lot of places because of the pipefitters' lobbies. Same goes for a lot of other building codes under the guise of safety - the system is deliberately made inefficient to protect jobs.

Personally, I blame the system of incentives created by late-stage capitalism. It's more beneficial to litigate your job to a safe place than to learn a new or more efficient method of accomplishing the same job.

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#213

Post by watwut » Thu, Oct 29, 2020, 6:42 PM UTC

sparkie wrote: post #126

watwut wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You dont seem to know who made the lockdown rules and what lockdown rules even existed.

I referred the the intellectuals as "cheerleaders," but in many cases they are also the advisers who are pushing and pressuring the policymakers. The majority of IYIs are for whatever policy makers put forward because the idea of a benevolent and well-meaning State aligns with their world vision. And of course, "we're just dismantling the evil capitalist patriarchy" is part of that cartoon world vision.

Lockdowns did hurt women more then they did hurt males, yes, but women still supported measures and I litterally seen no one blaming patriarchy for them.

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#214

Post by mariodiana » Thu, Oct 29, 2020, 6:45 PM UTC

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #136

simonh wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's right, Turchin himself pointed out the "overproduction of young graduates with advanced degrees”. The problem is the inability of society to support an excess of people who expect to be in the elite. If the US really is producing 25,000 more lawyers per year than it can employ, that's a real problem. Multiply that across many other disciplines and that could easily be hundreds of thousands of peo…

Indeed. Why is the US producing 25,000 more lawyers than it needs? Why is this happening in a supposedly rational maximally efficient - or close offer - market economy? The simple answer is because someone else profits hugely from the money they pay for training. Which in turn is a symptom of an extractive economy, not a productive economy. A productive economy would do a much better job of allocating talent to socia…

What you're describing is a bubble, or put more technically: gross malinvestment. It's happening for the same reason any bubble happens, artificially cheap credit financing a speculative boom.

Through government financed student loans, we make money available for any sort of educational pursuit; and unlike a loan for, say, opening a new restaurant, no business plan or market research is needed to convince a banker that the venture is a sound one.

So, the reason this is happening in a "supposedly rational, maximally efficient — or close offer — market economy" is contained in the first word of the description: supposedly.

In truth, government loans distort and destroy a market economy. Cheap credit undermines rational planning.

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#215

Post by JamesBarney » Thu, Oct 29, 2020, 6:46 PM UTC

ska wrote: post #180

JamesBarney wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There seems to be weird dynamic where there are a ton of lawyers, there is not enough work, and many aren't being paid much. But it's still hard to find a lawyer that charges less than 250/hr. My hypothesis is that law school is not preparing lawyers well enough to be useful right after school. So many can't find a job to get the experience to compete with senior attorneys who charge 250/hr.

> But it's still hard to find a lawyer that charges less than 250/hr. I've seen research that the average lawyer (which is definitely not NYC biglaw firm) successfully collects on about 1/8 of their nominally billable hours. If that is true, and you also factor in that they are effectively running a small business with all that implies for non-billable work, your $250/hr lawyer working on their own is making about $5…

Why are they only collecting on 1/8th of their billable time?

That's insane.

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#216

Post by ben_w » Thu, Oct 29, 2020, 6:54 PM UTC

pksebben wrote: post #212

jahaja wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The profit/investment motive is fundamentally behind the scarcity of affordable housing.

There's also the "protect-my-pie-ism" that skilled labor unions engage in. We have cheap alternatives to heavy metal pipes, but they're outlawed in a lot of places because of the pipefitters' lobbies. Same goes for a lot of other building codes under the guise of safety - the system is deliberately made inefficient to protect jobs. Personally, I blame the system of incentives created by late-stage capitalism. It's mo…

> We have cheap alternatives to heavy metal pipes

Wait, are you saying America uses lead pipes, not PVC or copper?

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#217

Post by jahaja » Thu, Oct 29, 2020, 6:55 PM UTC

pksebben wrote: post #212

jahaja wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The profit/investment motive is fundamentally behind the scarcity of affordable housing.

There's also the "protect-my-pie-ism" that skilled labor unions engage in. We have cheap alternatives to heavy metal pipes, but they're outlawed in a lot of places because of the pipefitters' lobbies. Same goes for a lot of other building codes under the guise of safety - the system is deliberately made inefficient to protect jobs. Personally, I blame the system of incentives created by late-stage capitalism. It's mo…

But that would just make it somewhat more expensive to build. The problem is that the supply is always kept insufficient. If, for example, the government would build good quality housing according to need, the housing market would implode. To build according to need was the default in here in Sweden before ~1990.

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#218

Post by cortesoft » Thu, Oct 29, 2020, 6:56 PM UTC

JamesBarney wrote: post #140

reader_mode wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean isn't it the same with developers ? If you're competent you have offers left and right and can command a very good salary. If you're out of a diploma mill with just the curriculum under your belt you're basically useless.

I don't think it is. I don't know any developers who have left the profession because of a lack of employability. But I know plenty of lawyers who have. And a law degree is probably more comparable to a masters in CS than a bootcamp like flatiron.

If you met the developers you know through your work as a developer, then you are likely having a selection bias issue. You probably haven't met the 'developers' who come out of school not actually knowing how to be a developer... they never get jobs, or they get jobs at the lowest tier, and you never interact with them. They leave the industry before you get a chance to meet them.

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#219

Post by rwmurrayVT » Thu, Oct 29, 2020, 7:01 PM UTC

krisroadruck wrote: post #168

TuringNYC wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> I studies CS back in the 80s and back then every student I knew was genuinely interested in the subject and motivated to learn. In my last job at a bank I regularly interviewed recent CS graduates and candidates able to demonstrate a genuine passion for the subject were few and far between. You are comparing college students from the 1980s to those from 20xx. I'll tell you what is on the mind of the new students:…

$2M is not a starter home. The national median home price is $230K. It's only that high because 4-5 states are dragging it up. Keep in mind that is the median. There are homes that can be had for less. Nice homes. Buying a house in one of the most expensive markets in the entire nation (SF, NYC) as your first home is a choice, and perhaps not a particularly wise one. Where I live in, in Charlotte, NC a $1-2 million h…

That's quite a distance from city center.. Your costs go way up when you don't live spitting distance from S.C..

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#220

Post by ska » Thu, Oct 29, 2020, 7:03 PM UTC

JamesBarney wrote: post #215

ska wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But it's still hard to find a lawyer that charges less than 250/hr. I've seen research that the average lawyer (which is definitely not NYC biglaw firm) successfully collects on about 1/8 of their nominally billable hours. If that is true, and you also factor in that they are effectively running a small business with all that implies for non-billable work, your $250/hr lawyer working on their own is making about $5…

Why are they only collecting on 1/8th of their billable time? That's insane.

"nominal" billable time, so it's a combination of things but also included client ability to pay, client acquisition costs (depending on speciality, consults may be free for example), etc.

I think time estimation is pretty hard in a lot of legal work also, you may be prepped for 60 hours work over then next two weeks and then a client phone call derails it entirely. It's not always easy to replace that time.