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Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

economist.com

151–160 of 292 posts

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#151

Turchin uses the term “elites”, which is not the same as “brainy”. Genuinely “brainy” people can find new ways to contribute to society, there can never be too any of them. “Elites” on the other hand - highly credentialed and entitled - play zero-sum games. There’s a lot of interesting critique written by heterodox leftists today, in the spirit of Chris Lasch, on how the current progressive movement is just intra-eli…

> There’s a lot of interesting critique written by heterodox leftists today, in the spirit of Chris Lasch, on how the current progressive movement is just intra-elite competition. There's a joke in leftist spheres that boils down to "Progressives simply want more female slave owners". I think it encapsulates the sentiment of the paragraph I partially quoted quite nicely.

[deleted]

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#152
post #142
post #20

In Peter Turchin's book War and Peace and War [1], the term "elite overproduction" does not refer to an overproduction of smart people, education, or college degrees. Instead, it refers to an overproduction of nobility , individuals who extract income but who do not perform useful work. For example, France during the population boom of the high middle ages overproduced knights and minor nobles from 1200-1300. The nob…

> The most straightforward modern equivalent to Turchin's "elite" nobility would not be people with advanced degrees: it would be investors who do not work for wages. This feels wrong. Investors did work for wages (or their ancestors did) and then instead of consuming they spent it on others in exchange for a pension. The modern day equivalent to nobility would be government employees and net tax recipients.

> Investors did work for wages (or their ancestors did) and then instead of consuming they spent it on others in exchange for a pension.

That is pretty much the definition of the nobility.

Someone many generations ago did something perceived as meritorious by the monarch and was awarded a title and some land. To get to the position where they could have done something to earn them a peerage, their ancestors would have worked a job for payment, and so on.

The only difference is the timescale. The 16th Duke of Hamilton is 400 years from someone who had to work for a living. A highly privileged modern investor whose only job was a sinecure at Daddy's company might have parents or grandparents who worked an upper-middle class job.

> The modern day equivalent to nobility would be government employees

That is a ridiculous snark. Government employees work for a wage, just as commercial and third sector employees do. If they stop working, they end up destitute same as any other employee. You do realise that Ron Swanson is a fictional character, don't you?

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#153
post #45
post #20

In Peter Turchin's book War and Peace and War [1], the term "elite overproduction" does not refer to an overproduction of smart people, education, or college degrees. Instead, it refers to an overproduction of nobility , individuals who extract income but who do not perform useful work. For example, France during the population boom of the high middle ages overproduced knights and minor nobles from 1200-1300. The nob…

I don't think that's right, Turchin himself pointed out the "overproduction of young graduates with advanced degrees”. The problem is the inability of society to support an excess of people who expect to be in the elite. If the US really is producing 25,000 more lawyers per year than it can employ, that's a real problem. Multiply that across many other disciplines and that could easily be hundreds of thousands of peo…

An added dimension is the cost of education to get within the elite class. So it couldn’t just be solved by adjusting the expectation to be within the elite because many of those people people need the elite salaries to pay off education debt

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#154

The company TransMeta was mostly PhDs. They fooled around so long, arguing and redesigning, not releasing, that Intel ate their lunch steadily improving scalar performance. My colleague who was worth $100M in TransMeta options at one point, is back to work with nothing. So yeah, too many brains are a dangerous thing.

Poorly managing your business seems less a sign of "too many brains" than "not enough management." Consider also that a) most businesses fail b) many successful engineering companies were founded and/or staffed by professors, Ph.D. graduates, and Ph.D. students from Stanford and elsewhere, d) intel didn't do so great with VLIW (itanium) or low power/thermal (Atom lost to ARM - and intel seems to have squandered Stron…

Transmeta had loads of management, but all PhD's. So in this case, its the same thing!

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it is. I don't know any developers who have left the profession because of a lack of employability. But I know plenty of lawyers who have. And a law degree is probably more comparable to a masters in CS than a bootcamp like flatiron.

> I don't know any developers who have left the profession because of a lack of employability. I feel like this is only true because there's such huge demand recently if you have a pulse and can code fizz buzz you can get hired - but I know 3 guys of the top of my head who went to school with me, finished 5 years (local uni, I dropped out but kept in touch) and then went in to IT or sales because they weren't good en…

In my mind I was counting IT, software sales, project management, business analyst etc... Any IT related profession.

If someone used a law degree to sell law software, or malpractice insurance I would count that was well.

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#157
post #22

Stupid people who think they're smart because they have a fancy education and are rewarded with high salary, that's probably a dangerous "brainy elite". Along with stupid people who just so happened to get a ton of money by no merit of their own, but don't realize this.

if a person wanted to accumulate wealth/knowledge and did it, he/she is smart. if a person wanted to accumulate wealth/knowledge and failed to so do, he/she is stupid.

This seems like a variant of the "just world hypothesis".

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#158
Apologies in advance for this stream-of-consciousness rambling:

A society with too many over-specialized people is a dangerous thing and IMO what's really happening here. The dynamics that play out from that impact all areas of society in deep, negative ways and pose an existential threat that will come home to roost in times of stress (which the situation also makes more likely to occur).

"Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. Weak men create hard times." - G. Michael Hopf

Weak in this context is un-resilient, inflexible in thinking and action. Not weakness in the physical sense. With over-specialisation comes implicit neglect of areas outside of the specialization. Producing well-rounded or 'T-Shaped' individuals inherently foregoes pursuing the highest possible level of performance in specialization.

Evidence abounds that modern developed society and decades of stability have produced a populace of over-specialized individuals - The net result being that we now have a systemic weakness in cross-discipline thinking and action. Over time more and more of the issues sitting on the society-wide bug tracker fall into this cross-discipline category and we just can't clear the tickets. They are building up.

Classic example - politicians are now overwhelmingly career politicians, their skill is in staying employed as politicians. This has transformed politics into a game of its own sake, increasingly unintelligible to those not versed in its lore, networked into its cliques, and thinking in its terms. It has ceased to be an effective means to the ends that it once was and is now an end in itself to its specialists. Outsiders to the political sphere face significant additional resistance in bringing any relevant experience to bear in a political context, which is now actively guarded against such non-specialists (or equally specialist, just of the wrong sort).

That's one example but you can find them absolutely everywhere - for the audience here look at how common it has become for technical specialists to fret about how small a cog they have become and how chasing maximum remuneration, recognition, or achievement in their field leaves them fundamentally unbalanced in other areas of their life, but also unable to pivot to anything else. It explains much of the 'stop the ride I want to get off' sentiment from those burning out in their field when considered as acts of mental rebellion against the confines of over-specialisation.

The dependencies this brings are where the risk really lies on a wider scale - develop a populace over specialized and you'll see great economic growth from whole new fields of shoelace-tyeres,food preparers, and (nod) telephone handset sanitizers. But now those roles become essential to individual survival while at the same time the importance and complexity of the underlying acts cease to be understood by those outside the specialisation whom depend utterly on their maintenance. Less trite examples are provision of food, water, heat, and shelter. Today shockingly few people are involved in the provision of these fundamental human needs, awareness of how they come about is as low as it has ever been, and doing any of them for yourself is at best considered weird and at worst legally prohibited.

I see this on a local level in my field all the time - you want to improve security across your organisation and so you set up a dedicated security team. Then any time security is considered someone from that team needs to be involved, and those outside the team limit their thinking on security-related considerations only as far as passing it off to the team. Net result, the organisation's ability to consider and tackle security is significantly weakened.

I don't really know where I'm going with this rant other than a vague attempt to increase awareness of what I believe is a serious fundamental, insidious issue.

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#159
post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Firstly, i graduated in 2001, so i've been through two down-cycles. Of course there are no worries now but you just need to look back and realize that $250k salaries can disappear, sometimes permanently. I remember how awesome it was in 2000, 2001, and then in 2002 and 2003 my friends were suddenly leaving CS to become mortgage brokers. I was blase about my liabilities in 2000, 2001. Not the case in 2002 or 2003. Bla…

I remember 2002 and 2003. And 2008. You're right. These are real worries for real people in the real world. Let's ground this in more realistic numbers: you can reasonably buy a $500k residential property in the SF Bay on a single $140k salary . That's a salary that's very achievable for a senior engineer - which is to say five years of experience, which many will hit by 30. It's one that you can keep getting when yo…

Thanks for your very logic take on this. I'll admit that many in my "generation" 2000/2001 grads (and also 2009 grads in NY) gut burnt and have a different risk-reward outlook in life. I think that explains some of the differences.

What you say is highly logical and models well with the current state of the world. However, it doesnt model unknown unknowns. The problem with modeling unknown unknowns is that you remain in a constant state of fear of what might happen, even though in the base case you would be OK -- so again your viewpoint makes sense.

However, I myself, cant stop thinking of unknown unknowns. Two that worry me (not worry me crazy, just worry me enough not to buy an expensive home in SF) are:

- What if tech jobs go remote and SF property prices stay constant? Now you dont get the appreciation you are expecting. Also, now, wages are stagnant or reduced with the large pool of workers across the US willing to work for less.

- What if the "burn down tech industry" segment of politicians win power (or cabinet influence) and create all sorts of punitive laws?

- What if we allow a lot more highly-skilled immigrants into the country (generally, i'm in favor of this coming from an immigrant family, but it cannot be denied that there would be a 3-5yr blip downwards in wages as the industry re-calibrates to more efficiently use all resources, including eventually creating net new jobs)

I'll give you three examples of unknown unknowns:

1. A friend in NYC purchased a simple 2family home and rents out the below unit to help pay the mega-mortgage. This year, there was a law that in many cases renters can defer rent (unlikely to pay it later, since it will obviously be a huge number.) Also, there is a moratorium on evictions. Also, the homeowner has to continue paying property taxes, utilities, heating, gas, etc. The model just went out the window.

2. A friend in 2009 -- outstanding performer -- was fighting to keep his job (along with a dozen other folks.) Suddenly there was a sexual harrassment claim (no witnesses, he said vs she said.) One person desperately trying to keep their job was the accuser, one was the accused. The accused lost his job. Took him 9 months to find a new job. Burnt thru his 6mo savings buffer. Increasingly desperate for a job, lowered his salary expectations and no longer earning $250k

3. Company is doing well. You are doing awesome. Making great buck. Suddenly, a corporate acquisition. New overloads bringing in loyalists. Bonuses cut for a year or so. Market is bad, stock grants are below what you got (Happens all the time). Dont want to switch jobs and be LIFO. You just went from $250 TC to $170TC.

My point is not that people cannot make ends meet. They can. Also, we in tech have it pretty good. BUT I would agrue that there are too many unknowns and stresses to "just pursue your passion" as the GP post was saying. I mean, sure, if everything was covered i'd love to pursue my passion. But it isnt.

Finally, you cant easily sell a home.

1. 6% real estate commission (if you put 20% down, you just lost 30% of your equity)

2. Title Insurance (1.5% depending on state)

3. Lawyers, fees, transfer taxes.

4. Bid-Ask spread.

All in, selling a home, especially under duress, exacts ~7-10% cost depending on your tax jurisdiction. If you put 20% down, you just lost 33 to 50% of your equity.

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