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Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

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Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#51
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> this was a contributing factor to the famines and wars of 1350-1400. I feel like you need to mention the black death in this same sentence though, as the nobility population change would arguably be a lesser factor in thrall to that massive event. It does certainly paint an interesting aftermath as the black death suddenly made life a valuable commodity leading to a small period of time where worker's rights and ev…

I also personally think that France's demographic situation in the early 1300s was a perfect example of Malthus's law, there were too many people compared to what the land could provide at that time (given the available technology). Some areas in the Southern Alps (Alpes-Maritimes) were never to be inhabited again after that.

> Some areas in the Southern Alps (Alpes-Maritimes) were never to be inhabited again after that.

But that might also be due to the end of the warm period and the start of the little ice age. For reference: Its about now that the norse have to abandon their Greenland settlement.

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#52
post #22

Stupid people who think they're smart because they have a fancy education and are rewarded with high salary, that's probably a dangerous "brainy elite". Along with stupid people who just so happened to get a ton of money by no merit of their own, but don't realize this.

if a person wanted to accumulate wealth/knowledge and did it, he/she is smart. if a person wanted to accumulate wealth/knowledge and failed to so do, he/she is stupid.

That's a stupid definition, and it's wrong.

Let's say I want to accumulate wealth, and I play the lottery and win, then, by your definition, I'm smart.

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good context. Thanks for that. Finding modern cognates to medieval nobility is fraught. In the republican era, it basically means "finger the bad guys." There's a tendency to label whoever you have beef with. Investors, bankers, the wealthy, political elites, the upper class... Does Peace and War go into inter-nobility issues, or does the thesis rest on just the problem of a fixed size peasantry supporting a growing…

>There's a tendency to label whoever you have beef with. Investors, bankers, the wealthy, political elites, the upper class... Are these supposed to be different groups of people?

They're pretty tightly clustered, but each have their own connotations, rhetorically.

Remember that the original liberals and republicans were (arguably) conducting conflicts within this overall cluster. In France it was the sans culotte vs the old nobility and clerics. You could argue that zuck or murdoch represents either side.

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#54
post #22

Stupid people who think they're smart because they have a fancy education and are rewarded with high salary, that's probably a dangerous "brainy elite". Along with stupid people who just so happened to get a ton of money by no merit of their own, but don't realize this.

Thomas Sowell writes about this in depth in several of his works.

In Intellectuals and Society, he notes that many "intellectual elite" have been cheerleaders for some of the worst (economic) disasters and human rights abuses of the 20th century. In 2020, we can see this vividly with the coronahysterics causing untold and immeasurable damage to societies with arbitrary and poorly calculated lockdown rules.

Sowell argues that these intellectuals believe their excellence in one field gives them the legitimacy to talk in depth about other fields in which they're not so excellent - perhaps most notably economics, which is Sowell's own field of expertise. In A Vision of the Annointed, he describes how these intellectuals have concocted a fantasy world view which is inconsistent with actual evidence, and the academies work to insulate themselves away from this evidence when it conflicts with their world view. This is true in economics, where the current leading school of thought (MMT) pretends they're not just kicking the can down the road, and ignores the works of the Austrian school.

When he refers to 'intellectuals,' he doesn't just mean anybody intelligent or accredited with degrees. He is referring to people whose results are just ideas, and not products, inventions or scientific breakthroughs. Many "idea people" ultimately face no consequence upon themselves for their poor ideas; they have no skin in the game and are eager to inflict their world view upon society even if there is collateral damage.

A slightly older of his works, A Conflict of Visions, suggests there are two prevailing visions: an unconstrained and a constrained vision. The unconstrained vision is that held by many intellectual elite and largely ignores some aspects of human nature. It believes that people are innately good and well meaning (The just-world fallacy). They don't believe that humans should have constraints because given the opportunity, they will act in their own or others' best interests. The constrained vision is one in which humans believe that man is not innately good and has some bad inside of him. In this vision, it is necessary to have some constraints (laws, fears, etc) so that they act in a manner which is in the best long term interest of themselves or the wider society.

In the study of economics, it is not possible to ignore human nature because all economic activity is the result of people taking actions in their own self-interest. Praxeology studies how humans behave, without consideration for their thoughts or speech, but merely how they act in the real world. It argues that what someone does tells you far more than what a person says they will do, and even what they tell themselves.

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#55
post #45
post #20

In Peter Turchin's book War and Peace and War [1], the term "elite overproduction" does not refer to an overproduction of smart people, education, or college degrees. Instead, it refers to an overproduction of nobility , individuals who extract income but who do not perform useful work. For example, France during the population boom of the high middle ages overproduced knights and minor nobles from 1200-1300. The nob…

I don't think that's right, Turchin himself pointed out the "overproduction of young graduates with advanced degrees”. The problem is the inability of society to support an excess of people who expect to be in the elite. If the US really is producing 25,000 more lawyers per year than it can employ, that's a real problem. Multiply that across many other disciplines and that could easily be hundreds of thousands of peo…

This. I'm lucky to have made it from a medium Eastern European city to a software engineer job in UK, but I can only imagine it would've been so much more difficult (if not impossible) if the pool of people with the same level of knowledge and interest was 10x bigger. Spending many years studying/working to end up in a job with no growth prospects would be a very bitter pill to swallow.

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#56
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good context. Thanks for that. Finding modern cognates to medieval nobility is fraught. In the republican era, it basically means "finger the bad guys." There's a tendency to label whoever you have beef with. Investors, bankers, the wealthy, political elites, the upper class... Does Peace and War go into inter-nobility issues, or does the thesis rest on just the problem of a fixed size peasantry supporting a growing…

Spain fixed the problem of too many landless knights by encouraging them to go off and invade South America.

I'm sure we could write a whole social theory around this.

Arguably, the spanish tradition continues under more modern institutions with the British and Dutch trade monopolies. Nobles and wealthy commoners could go off and stake their claims in the colonies. A more diverse elite.

Instead of being a knight that can either farm (limited number of hides) or crusade, you could also be a textile merchant. You could be a ship captain, VOC clerk or mior Raj.

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#57

Taleb writes about this with the phrase IYI intellectual yet idiot. His primary concern is that these people don't take risk and become bureaucrats. Not that they are smart, brainy, or any other ad hominem attack masked as a compliment. https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e...

Taleb taught me how to protect myself in the face of uncertain situtations, the idea is not to take risks for the sake of taking risks. The problem with bureaucrats is that they are exposing others to huge risks and they don't feel it on their own skin. They are pushing the consequences of the risk on other people.

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The most straightforward modern equivalent to Turchin's "elite" nobility would not be people with advanced degrees: it would be There's a lot of groups one could complain about. On HN it's a toss-up between whether you complain about the wall street bankers or the urban landlords. In other circles people complain about the government and the white collar yuppies. The MBA types get complained about a lot but nobody c…

I mean, the nobility were, by and large, people who derived income from capital (generally, and in many countries exclusively, land) but didn’t generally themselves do productive work (they sometimes had minor government or judiciary roles, but these were often very minor, at least as time went on). It’s a fairly obvious comparison (though it was worse; modern investment, except in land, does at least indirectly lead…

Obviously (hopefully) this is a very complex topic and our analogies are both lacking in nuance and inaccurate on certain levels. However...

In the middle ages the nobility were effectively the government (and the church provided checks and balances, kind of) as well as the investor class. In addition to financing productive capacity they also did all the administrative things governments do. Obviously administrative bloat ebbed and flowed over time. Today we have both government investment in capital project (e.g. a road, or a bus terminal) and private investment in capital projects (a new factory or whatever). Both groups can get very rent-seeky and non-productive if left alone with no reason to not do those things. It's really hard to make generalizations that are more accurate than not.

I think comparison to the pre-industrial world is more effective for understanding that time than it is for drawing conclusions about our own time. All the details are so different you really need to squint to make things line up and when you're talking about big things like macro-economics it's the fine tuning and details that make all the difference.

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#59
post #12

The idea that there is some sort of magic cycle that links 1870s to 2020 is patent nonsense. No cycle could survive the technological and political disruptions of the last hundred years. The current problem is the same old one where available real resources are growing more slowly than the population. If real stuff is becoming available faster than the population, we have golden ages. When population grows faster tha…

Malthusian arguments are outdated by atleast a 100 years. Where is the proof that “real stuff” is growing slower than the population? Seems like there is too much stuff TBH. And banker-scapegoating is also outdated by ~10 years. The regulations passed after ‘08 have made banks boring and powerless. The focus should be on the tech industry.

> Where is the proof that “real stuff” is growing slower than the population?

In the US? Government debt is at or approaching an all time high relative to GDP. Corporate debt is rather high although I don't know how it compares historically and there is a massive amount of student debt floating around. There are a lot of people out there who, by the numbers, are consuming quite a bit more than they are producing.

US primary energy production has basically flatlined since 2000 [0]. That isn't the be-all and end-all, but it just seems like an easy prediction that long periods of growing population and flat energy consumption is going to lead to problems. The people who can't convince Asians to give them stuff are not going to be rolling in a surplus of stuff, is my read of that chart. I haven't heard good reports about the state of US infrastructure either, but maybe it is better than I think.

The States might make it work, but the political situation is developing pretty much how I'd expect it to if there is a large group of people being squeezed out by lack of access to real stuff. There is a big body of people who just aren't producing as much as they are consuming, and the background talk of "we don't need energy to be wealthy!" - I don't see how that squares off against the growing relatively evident growing instability. Trump in particular is not a sign of a thriving economy. Nor is the Democrat rhetoric in response to Trump.

Population growth is ~.7-.8% per annum, and real GDP growth is estimated at 2% per annum. Given the expansion of the money supply, and the gossip that the US is a 'service based' economy, it is entirely plausible to me that real stuff is growing more slowly than population and the measured growth is some sort of complicated feedback loop that nobody has tracked down.

> Malthusian arguments are outdated by atleast a 100 years.

Hopefully. But it is worth being prepared for a world where obvious trends play out to their conclusion.

[0] https://ourworldindata.org/energy#energy-production-by-regio...

Re: Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?

#60
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's right, Turchin himself pointed out the "overproduction of young graduates with advanced degrees”. The problem is the inability of society to support an excess of people who expect to be in the elite. If the US really is producing 25,000 more lawyers per year than it can employ, that's a real problem. Multiply that across many other disciplines and that could easily be hundreds of thousands of peo…

This. I'm lucky to have made it from a medium Eastern European city to a software engineer job in UK, but I can only imagine it would've been so much more difficult (if not impossible) if the pool of people with the same level of knowledge and interest was 10x bigger. Spending many years studying/working to end up in a job with no growth prospects would be a very bitter pill to swallow.

I studies CS back in the 80s and back then every student I knew was genuinely interested in the subject and motivated to learn. In my last job at a bank I regularly interviewed recent CS graduates and candidates able to demonstrate a genuine passion for the subject were few and far between.

I know, I know, get off my lawn.

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