The self-driving car is a red herring • Hacker News Board

Re: The self-driving car is a red herring

#231

Post by unabridged » Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:39 PM UTC

d_burfoot wrote: post #179

sirsar wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LA has an order of magnitude more population than is required for functioning public transit. But you're right they don't have the density. The key is to realize the cars themselves killed density . Parking lots, parking spaces, and extra lanes all conspire to push humans and human spaces further apart. This then makes walking less feasible, cars more required, and more space required to accommodate those cars in a f…

> The key is to realize the cars themselves killed density. People have very naive explanations of why the US is so bad at density and urbanism. Canada and Australia, which are very similar to the US, have very dense cities like Montreal, Toronto, and Melbourne. Do they not have cars in Canada and Australia? If you want to find the real reason why all other developed countries have dense cities with good public trans…

The difference is the treatment of poor & homeless. Public transit buildings/vehicles are some of the only inside spaces where they can spend time. Then people with enough money avoid public transit as much as possible. Then they vote against more funding for transit because it is not useful to them.

Re: The self-driving car is a red herring

#232

Post by mhermher » Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:40 PM UTC

simplyinfinity wrote: post #208

barnacled wrote: post #18

I like Filip Piekniewski's take on this [0] - deep learning is appropriate for environments where the cost of mistakes is low (or the errors are reversible) and you're able to 'average them out'. Self-driving cars are absolutely not in that category. "If your errors are irreversible and you can't average them out, and your application is in open domain where there will never be a shortage of out of distribution sampl…

> For me it's obvious the real issue are the edge cases - of course a self-driving car does fine in 99%+ of cases, but those small % of outlier cases are the ones where people potentially die. I suspect an entirely different approach is required to supplement/supplant the deep learning one and fully autonomous vehicles are still quite some way off. Why is that every time the safety of self driving cars is brought up,…

Is the manufacturer gonna take the liability for those deaths?

Re: The self-driving car is a red herring

#233

Post by TulliusCicero » Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:47 PM UTC

cgh wrote: post #159

TulliusCicero wrote: post #34

> And even if we do, spreading the technology beyond the Arizona suburbs will require costly retrofits to add navigational hardware to existing roads. No it won't? Why would it? Plenty of companies are testing in other areas, and I haven't heard any suggest that they need special hardware on the roads themselves. Yes, the Phoenix suburbs are the easiest place to start, but that doesn't mean you need special infrastru…

I'm sure the Phoenix suburbs will perfectly prepare autonomous vehicles in Edmonton taking kids to hockey practice in January at 5:30 am.

You seemed to have missed reading the comment you're replying to. I'll quote the relevant section:

> Plenty of companies are testing in other areas

For example, many have tested in the Detroit area that does indeed get snow.

Re: The self-driving car is a red herring

#234

Post by jxramos » Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:48 PM UTC

jxramos wrote: post #198

aantix wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The city that I live in is very spread out. The idea of hopping from a subway to a bus to another bus just to get to a doctor's appointment sounds awful. And if I had to take 4 young kids along with me for the trip, double awful. For the denser cities - my wife and I lived in SF for close to five years. As our family grew, and the city space grew more populous, parking spots were really rare. Getting to a pediatric a…

Indeed, the creature comforts of a car is probably the big reason they are so successful compared to the alternatives. I rode public transportation well into my late twenties I think. When some folks would accompany me for the trip at times they didn't even own hardy thick winter coats to be able to bear the cold elements outside. People who haven't had to spend significant times standing and waiting to be picked up…

Come to reflect more on the public transportation experience you'd often overhear people's aspirations and progress towards car ownership, especially among the teens from what I recall. Forgot all about that frequent occurrence.

Re: The self-driving car is a red herring

#235

Post by RodgerTheGreat » Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:49 PM UTC

simplyinfinity wrote: post #208

barnacled wrote: post #18

I like Filip Piekniewski's take on this [0] - deep learning is appropriate for environments where the cost of mistakes is low (or the errors are reversible) and you're able to 'average them out'. Self-driving cars are absolutely not in that category. "If your errors are irreversible and you can't average them out, and your application is in open domain where there will never be a shortage of out of distribution sampl…

> For me it's obvious the real issue are the edge cases - of course a self-driving car does fine in 99%+ of cases, but those small % of outlier cases are the ones where people potentially die. I suspect an entirely different approach is required to supplement/supplant the deep learning one and fully autonomous vehicles are still quite some way off. Why is that every time the safety of self driving cars is brought up,…

If self-driving cars are marginally better at driving than humans, but people take more rides in them out of convenience, it's easy for the technology to result in a net increase of human deaths.

Re: The self-driving car is a red herring

#236

Post by colinmhayes » Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:50 PM UTC

sailingparrot wrote: post #228

bluedino wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Between being crammed in the cars, the mentally unstable accosting you, the lack of cleanliness and the occasional assault Three of the four of those are things you don't hear people complaining about with the transit system in Japan because of the culture differences in the USA. How can that be fixed, here?

Calling this a "culture differences" is quite the understatement, unless you include politics, access to healthcare and other things under "culture". I do agree that there is definitly a cultural component to this too however.

I absolutely consider those things culture. The American culture of individualism is the cause of them.

Re: The self-driving car is a red herring

#237

Post by TulliusCicero » Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:50 PM UTC

mxskelly wrote: post #90

TulliusCicero wrote: post #34

> And even if we do, spreading the technology beyond the Arizona suburbs will require costly retrofits to add navigational hardware to existing roads. No it won't? Why would it? Plenty of companies are testing in other areas, and I haven't heard any suggest that they need special hardware on the roads themselves. Yes, the Phoenix suburbs are the easiest place to start, but that doesn't mean you need special infrastru…

I'd love to know how you expect a computer to navigate a blizzard on an unpainted country road when even adaptive cruise control systems can't handle a bit of snow on the sensors. Sure this stuff works fine in Arizona where there is no inclement weather most of the time, and the roads are in perfect condition because freeze/thaw cycles don't cause excessive wear, but what about the rest of the country and the world?

> I'd love to know how you expect a computer to navigate a blizzard on an unpainted country road when even adaptive cruise control systems can't handle a bit of snow on the sensors.

What do adaptive cruise control systems have to do with full self-driving systems? You realize these aren't the same thing, right?

> Sure this stuff works fine in Arizona where there is no inclement weather most of the time, and the roads are in perfect condition because freeze/thaw cycles don't cause excessive wear, but what about the rest of the country and the world?

Again, what's the problem you're pointing to here? Arizona is easy mode, no doubt...and? We already know companies are also testing in areas with fouler weather, after all. Waymo even demonstrated how their sensors handle snowfall two years ago, and presumably they've improved further since then as they've continued development: https://www.engadget.com/2018-05-08-waymo-snow-navigation.ht...

It's absolutely bizarre how many HN commenters assume that the engineering departments in every self-driving car company are chock full of the biggest morons on the planet. "Oh ho ho, did they ever consider that other places have different weather than Arizona? Checkmate, tech companies."

Re: The self-driving car is a red herring

#238

Post by esotericsean » Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:51 PM UTC

Kaze404 wrote: post #81

I have a feeling I'll be down voted to hell for this, but self driving cars always felt like going the complete wrong direction for me. Aside from small personal satisfaction to the few that will be able to afford them, how is revolving our infrastructure and culture around them any better than simply investing in public transportation by making it a more feasible option for people? I'm not in the US, and while the p…

I live in California which is known for its "car culture," but that aside I don't think I would ever be comfortable with only using public transportation or not owning a car. Having a car is convenient and gives you full control over exactly when and where you want to go.

Re: The self-driving car is a red herring

#239

Post by screye » Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:52 PM UTC

Grimm1 wrote: post #153

I know people love public transport because of the supposed larger benefit to society but having ridden NYC public transport for over 7 years now I absolutely loath it. The experience is horrible almost every day. Between being crammed in the cars, the mentally unstable accosting you, the lack of cleanliness and the occasional assault I'm simply not willing to deal with that continuously. I put up with it because it…

This happens because the US cannot commit to proper public transport fully. In other places, there are either dedicated bus lanes or entirely separated trams which circumvent traffic all together.

They also routinely upgrade their public transport, instead of NYC which incurs massive costs as it keeps 200 yr old infrastructure barely alive.

It is also unreasonably cheap. $127 a month is lower than the cost of insurance for many.

Re: The self-driving car is a red herring

#240

Post by UncleOxidant » Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:52 PM UTC

bluedino wrote: post #218

Grimm1 wrote: post #153

I know people love public transport because of the supposed larger benefit to society but having ridden NYC public transport for over 7 years now I absolutely loath it. The experience is horrible almost every day. Between being crammed in the cars, the mentally unstable accosting you, the lack of cleanliness and the occasional assault I'm simply not willing to deal with that continuously. I put up with it because it…

>> Between being crammed in the cars, the mentally unstable accosting you, the lack of cleanliness and the occasional assault Three of the four of those are things you don't hear people complaining about with the transit system in Japan because of the culture differences in the USA. How can that be fixed, here?

I was listening to a youtube recently talking about covid in Japan (their numbers are strikingly low) and the correspondent in Japan mentioned that 5 year olds commonly ride on public transit alone to school without parents. She said it was a rite of passage for 5 year olds that they ride the trains by themselves. That's just unimaginable in the US especially in a city like NYC. Huge cultural differences.