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SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility

biorxiv.org

71–80 of 103 posts

Re: SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility

#71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You would think – but viruses don't necessarily become less deadly. The virus wants to maximize transmissibility, and that might require trading off further against the host's health and increasing its death rate. An example is Myxoma virus. It was intentionally introduced to pest Australian rabbit populations (to cull them) and studied. After ~30 years of evolution, they found the dominant strain had a 70-95% death…

It basically needs to be extremely contagious without symptoms that stop the spread - like killing the host. Which in part this virus has, asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic are as contagious as symptomatic. If it's enough to spread, doesn't matter much if the host dies after a few days or not.

>Which in part this virus has, asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic are as contagious as symptomatic.

Do we really know that yet?

Re: SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility

#72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It basically needs to be extremely contagious without symptoms that stop the spread - like killing the host. Which in part this virus has, asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic are as contagious as symptomatic. If it's enough to spread, doesn't matter much if the host dies after a few days or not.

>Which in part this virus has, asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic are as contagious as symptomatic. Do we really know that yet?

>Infectiousness may peak before symptom onset (7). Viral loads appear to be similar between asymptomatic and symptomatic patients (8), although the implications for infectiousness are unclear. People experiencing symptoms may self-isolate or seek medical care, but those with no or mild symptoms may continue to circulate in the community. Because of this, those without severe symptoms have the potential to be “superspreaders” and may have an outsized influence on maintaining the epidemic.

Source: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6515/406

While it's not confirmed they are more infectious, they walk among the community without being aware, therefore more prone for spreading.

Re: SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility

#73
post #55
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, imagine how much worse the world would be (at least in 1st world countries) if we did not have the tech tools available to us. I legitimately do not know what would have happened, but I feel like it would be much more violent and much deeper despair. For all the headaches constant connection has brought, it has also alleviated an unknown number of them as well.

I'm getting old. Last 20 years maybe, but I can't name a technology advancement that happened in the last 10 years that I would really miss. To me it seems like most technology is now done for the sake of doing it and solutions are looking for problems. Not to mention all the dystopian surveillance we have now. Rose tinted glasses and all that, the start of the millennium was a much happier time period imo.

Have you used a 10 year old phone lately?

Re: SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility

#74
post #55
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, imagine how much worse the world would be (at least in 1st world countries) if we did not have the tech tools available to us. I legitimately do not know what would have happened, but I feel like it would be much more violent and much deeper despair. For all the headaches constant connection has brought, it has also alleviated an unknown number of them as well.

I'm getting old. Last 20 years maybe, but I can't name a technology advancement that happened in the last 10 years that I would really miss. To me it seems like most technology is now done for the sake of doing it and solutions are looking for problems. Not to mention all the dystopian surveillance we have now. Rose tinted glasses and all that, the start of the millennium was a much happier time period imo.

How does your age map to this Douglas Adams quote:

”I've come up with a set of rules that describe our reactions to technologies: 1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works. 2. Anything that's invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it. 3. Anything invented after you're thirty-five is against the natural order of things.”

Re: SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility

#75
post #2

Off-topic: > ... made available under a CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license. I'm quite pleased to see more and more academic and scientific papers being licensed as such in recent times!

Why ND and not BY-SA?

Use of the CC BY ND license is meant to reflect the common practice of sharing academic papers, which was often done informally, as opposed to a paywall. I can send you a copy of my paper; you can pass on copies to colleagues. But in doing so, you wouldn't edit it. That's not a freedom which is necessary for sharing a paper. The paper is a complete product. Moreover it would be a breech of the integrity of the work to edit it. If a correction is required, there is a proper route for that: erratum or corrigendum, published in the original venue.

The first catch of "ND" is that this excludes translation, but that really is not considered to be an issue for two reasons: (1) Scientists are generally expected to be proficient in English and able to read a paper in English - as once was the case for chemists being proficient in German. (2) For popularization and dissemination, media outlets are able to write summaries in other languages.

The second catch is that we really should have some kind of formal secondary license for images and figures within a paper (ideally CC-BY), to allow them to be used separately, since reuse of these should be as frictionless as possible. As a former grad student, it was a pain when writing the review section in a thesis! Though many journals & academic publishers achieve this through having blanket forms that an academic can download for permission to re-use images; for others one needs to consult with the authors of a paper which can be tricky.

And to counter your other comment:

> Ancillary and auxiliary sources are key to scientific criticism.

The licensing does nothing whatsoever to prevent scientific criticism. The Berne Convention [1] explicitly allows for quoting from other works, even if not licensed whatsoever:

> 10.1 It shall be permissible to make quotations from a work which has already been lawfully made available to the public, provided that their making is compatible with fair practice, and their extent does not exceed that justified by the purpose, including quotations from newspaper articles and periodicals in the form of press summaries.

Criticism is never a matter of editing someone else's work; it's commenting about the work. You don't need a license to do that. If one has free access to the full text, which CC BY ND provides, then one has everything necessary to understand the criticism.

[1] https://wipolex.wipo.int/en/text/283698

Re: SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility

#76
post #8

Something I have been wondering about, wouldn't a virus naturally evolve to be less deadly and more contagious over time? I.e. virus's tend to achieve a steady state like the cold and flu in the long run. If you are too deadly it hinders spread so I would expect Covid to get less deadly and more contagious over time, which kind of fits the data?

Conventional wisdom often claims that virus evolve to become less fatal - but I don't think that matches the historical record. There's evidence for influenza virus existing thousands of years before 1918. As such, it seems to have evolved into a much more deadly strain at that point. Reproducing more efficiently is a win for natural selection and will normally result in a dominant strain: whether that strain is more…

I think what happened with the 1918 pandemic (and the 2019 one for that matter) is a virus hopping between species can "reset the clock" on that trend and start as very fatal for humans.

Re: SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility

#77
post #8

Something I have been wondering about, wouldn't a virus naturally evolve to be less deadly and more contagious over time? I.e. virus's tend to achieve a steady state like the cold and flu in the long run. If you are too deadly it hinders spread so I would expect Covid to get less deadly and more contagious over time, which kind of fits the data?

Conventional wisdom often claims that virus evolve to become less fatal - but I don't think that matches the historical record. There's evidence for influenza virus existing thousands of years before 1918. As such, it seems to have evolved into a much more deadly strain at that point. Reproducing more efficiently is a win for natural selection and will normally result in a dominant strain: whether that strain is more…

> There's evidence for influenza virus existing thousands of years before 1918. As such, it seems to have evolved into a much more deadly strain at that point.

Influenza refers to a class of viruses, not a single virus.

Re: SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility

#78
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And then came Colt's Revolver. > A Texas Ranger, Captain Samuel Walker, wrote Colt a testimonial that read, in part:"Your pistols...[are] the most perfect weapon in the World... to keep the various warlike tribes of Indians and marauding Mexicans in subjection." https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/theymadeamerica/whomade/colt_hi.htm...

The 20th century decolonization wars showed that natives can adapt to modern weaponry fairly well. But you need the numbers to pull this off. Sioux are not numerous enough to threaten American dominance of their territory. If they were as numerous as, say, Punjabis, that would be a different story.

Punjabis acquitted themselves fairly well in 1849.

Re: SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility

#79
post #8

Something I have been wondering about, wouldn't a virus naturally evolve to be less deadly and more contagious over time? I.e. virus's tend to achieve a steady state like the cold and flu in the long run. If you are too deadly it hinders spread so I would expect Covid to get less deadly and more contagious over time, which kind of fits the data?

It's not like the virus has a brain. Statistically most could become less deadly, but it doesn't mean all will follow the same pattern. In this case, the virus becomes less deadly as we know how to treat it better and most infected and tested now are younger people.

Re: SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility

#80

One thing isn't clear to me, for lack of background knowledge: have there been several strains since the beginning of the pandemic, or is this study based on evidence of mutation in the wild? It sounds like the former, but since it wasn't explicitly addressed in the abstract, I thought I'd ask.

There are thousands of mutations which have been observed. Some are consequential - changing the virus' behaviour - others are not. What constitutes a "strain" is fuzzy, since viruses are constantly evolving and it's an artificial category or human construct. To get away from that, it's often helpful to think in terms of phylogeny or genetic relationships.

You can see a phylogenetic tree of the clades (essentially a "family tree" determined through mutations of the virus) & a map showing the distribution of the different clades of the virus worldwide on GSAID platform:

https://www.gisaid.org/epiflu-applications/phylodynamics/

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