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SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility

biorxiv.org

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Re: SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility

#11

Post by hamaluik »

cephaslr wrote: post #8

Something I have been wondering about, wouldn't a virus naturally evolve to be less deadly and more contagious over time? I.e. virus's tend to achieve a steady state like the cold and flu in the long run. If you are too deadly it hinders spread so I would expect Covid to get less deadly and more contagious over time, which kind of fits the data?

Generally, yes. But also we’re a bit unlucky that it isn’t very deadly: SARS was way deadlier To start with but as a result spread several orders of magnitude less (both naturally and because humans had a stronger reaction to “shut it down at all costs“).

The H1N1 virus from the 1918 pandemic grew less deadly over time, and essentially evolved into a seasonal flu that is still affecting people around the world today. Personally, I expect COVID19 to go the same way.

Re: SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility

#12

Post by oh_sigh »

anticensor wrote: post #7
ashleyn wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Derivative works from a biology paper can result in disinformation.

It should still be BY-SA. Ancillary and auxiliary sources are key to scientific criticism.

What form of criticisms are possible with BY-SA that aren't with BY-CC? Criticism would usually come in the form of new papers which merely reference the previous one.

Re: SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility

#13

Post by 2f3f23f32 »

cephaslr wrote: post #8

Something I have been wondering about, wouldn't a virus naturally evolve to be less deadly and more contagious over time? I.e. virus's tend to achieve a steady state like the cold and flu in the long run. If you are too deadly it hinders spread so I would expect Covid to get less deadly and more contagious over time, which kind of fits the data?

The COVID-19 mortality rates are dropping all the time and are at 0.2% now (barely higher than normal flu). I see no reason to prevent the virus from spreading now because it is not dangerous anymore.

Re: SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility

#14

Post by ReptileMan »

2f3f23f32 wrote: post #13
cephaslr wrote: post #8

Something I have been wondering about, wouldn't a virus naturally evolve to be less deadly and more contagious over time? I.e. virus's tend to achieve a steady state like the cold and flu in the long run. If you are too deadly it hinders spread so I would expect Covid to get less deadly and more contagious over time, which kind of fits the data?

The COVID-19 mortality rates are dropping all the time and are at 0.2% now (barely higher than normal flu). I see no reason to prevent the virus from spreading now because it is not dangerous anymore.

This is the citation needed part of the discussion.

Re: SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility

#15

Post by reizorc »

2f3f23f32 wrote: post #13
cephaslr wrote: post #8

Something I have been wondering about, wouldn't a virus naturally evolve to be less deadly and more contagious over time? I.e. virus's tend to achieve a steady state like the cold and flu in the long run. If you are too deadly it hinders spread so I would expect Covid to get less deadly and more contagious over time, which kind of fits the data?

The COVID-19 mortality rates are dropping all the time and are at 0.2% now (barely higher than normal flu). I see no reason to prevent the virus from spreading now because it is not dangerous anymore.

As far as I was aware it's the hospitalisation rate is driving the lockdowns more than the mortality rate.

Re: SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility

#16

Post by packetlost »

hamaluik wrote: post #11
cephaslr wrote: post #8

Something I have been wondering about, wouldn't a virus naturally evolve to be less deadly and more contagious over time? I.e. virus's tend to achieve a steady state like the cold and flu in the long run. If you are too deadly it hinders spread so I would expect Covid to get less deadly and more contagious over time, which kind of fits the data?

Generally, yes. But also we’re a bit unlucky that it isn’t very deadly: SARS was way deadlier To start with but as a result spread several orders of magnitude less (both naturally and because humans had a stronger reaction to “shut it down at all costs“). The H1N1 virus from the 1918 pandemic grew less deadly over time, and essentially evolved into a seasonal flu that is still affecting people around the world today.…

The h1n1 is a bit of a strange case though because it jumps species boundary very often and mutates very quickly. COVID-19 appears to evolve much, much slower. Based on my limited understanding of virology, I think this means it's unlikely to become a seasonal problem unless the general populations immune system does not retain immunity to the same strain for a significant period of time.

Re: SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility

#17

Post by adzm »

reizorc wrote: post #15
2f3f23f32 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The COVID-19 mortality rates are dropping all the time and are at 0.2% now (barely higher than normal flu). I see no reason to prevent the virus from spreading now because it is not dangerous anymore.

As far as I was aware it's the hospitalisation rate is driving the lockdowns more than the mortality rate.

Right, and as hospitals get overwhelmed, the mortality rate increases.

Re: SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility

#18

Post by remote_phone »

2f3f23f32 wrote: post #13
cephaslr wrote: post #8

Something I have been wondering about, wouldn't a virus naturally evolve to be less deadly and more contagious over time? I.e. virus's tend to achieve a steady state like the cold and flu in the long run. If you are too deadly it hinders spread so I would expect Covid to get less deadly and more contagious over time, which kind of fits the data?

The COVID-19 mortality rates are dropping all the time and are at 0.2% now (barely higher than normal flu). I see no reason to prevent the virus from spreading now because it is not dangerous anymore.

0.2% mortality is the rate for people under 60. 0.1% rate for flu is considering all ages. If you remove over 60, the death rate for flu is something like 0.002%. So for an equivalent age group coronavirus is 100x more deadly.

Re: SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility

#19

Post by newsbinator »

2f3f23f32 wrote: post #13
cephaslr wrote: post #8

Something I have been wondering about, wouldn't a virus naturally evolve to be less deadly and more contagious over time? I.e. virus's tend to achieve a steady state like the cold and flu in the long run. If you are too deadly it hinders spread so I would expect Covid to get less deadly and more contagious over time, which kind of fits the data?

The COVID-19 mortality rates are dropping all the time and are at 0.2% now (barely higher than normal flu). I see no reason to prevent the virus from spreading now because it is not dangerous anymore.

> it is not dangerous anymore

How do you know?

Re: SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility

#20

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

cephaslr wrote: post #8

Something I have been wondering about, wouldn't a virus naturally evolve to be less deadly and more contagious over time? I.e. virus's tend to achieve a steady state like the cold and flu in the long run. If you are too deadly it hinders spread so I would expect Covid to get less deadly and more contagious over time, which kind of fits the data?

Look for counter examples. Have we seen this in HIV? Smallpox? It's a plausibility. It's far from a guarantee.

And the opposite, /could/ happen, too. The virus could mutate to have a longer incubation period, or be more deadly, or both.

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