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Vaccine hopes rise as Oxford jab prompts immune response among old and young

reuters.com

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Re: Vaccine hopes rise as Oxford jab prompts immune response among old and young

#681

Post by cwhiz »

jberryman wrote: post #473
cwhiz wrote: post #436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you’re describing as “reckless behavior” is just normal behavior in a non-covid world. If vaccine candidates are social distancing, wearing masks, and staying home how will the researchers get the data they need? If you are following “covid best practices” it is extremely unlikely that you will contract covid. Would the researchers not want people to go out and live their normal lives?

The point is if the two groups behave differently wrt risk then the trial is probably ruined. Maybe you're assuming the vaccine will be 100% effective; experts I've heard are saying to expect something like the flu shot.

Well in this scenario I am suggesting that a placebo is a waste of time and we don't need two groups. I am not assuming the vaccine will be 100% effective, or even effective at all. But in order to get meaningful data you can't have all your participants taking the most extreme precautions. The vast majority of American citizens have not, and will not, get Covid.

Re: Vaccine hopes rise as Oxford jab prompts immune response among old and young

#682

Post by GekkePrutser »

LandR wrote: post #511
GekkePrutser wrote: post #417

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vaccines often cause a minor cosmetic bump. If you see people with a triangle of bumps on their shoulder for example they have received a common vaccine for healthcare workers. And the smallpox one can leave an even bigger scar. I suppose they don't want the liability for that which could impact the model's income

Tabloid glamour models obviously aren't excluded, the posters joke was a reference to this > excluded groups on the trial ( page 3 ,

Ahh ok! :D

Now that you mention it I had heard of the British Page 3 tradition but it didn't occur to me at the time.

Re: Vaccine hopes rise as Oxford jab prompts immune response among old and young

#683

Post by whimsicalism »

raverbashing wrote: post #640
whimsicalism wrote: post #547

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you "could" get that from other observations No, if they change their behavior, you couldn't. Why are so many people commenting when they clearly don't understand knowledge-creation/statistics/methodology?

> Why are so many people commenting when they clearly don't understand knowledge-creation/statistics/methodology? You talk about knowledge-creation and answer with a dogmatic tautology. Then people wonder why anti-scientific sentiment is at high levels...

> anti-scientific sentiment

Anti-scientific sentiment is at high levels because you don't get someone to personally explain basic statistical concepts that you could have googled yourself?

Re: Vaccine hopes rise as Oxford jab prompts immune response among old and young

#684

Post by DiogenesKynikos »

cwhiz wrote: post #681
jberryman wrote: post #473

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is if the two groups behave differently wrt risk then the trial is probably ruined. Maybe you're assuming the vaccine will be 100% effective; experts I've heard are saying to expect something like the flu shot.

Well in this scenario I am suggesting that a placebo is a waste of time and we don't need two groups. I am not assuming the vaccine will be 100% effective, or even effective at all. But in order to get meaningful data you can't have all your participants taking the most extreme precautions. The vast majority of American citizens have not, and will not, get Covid.

A few percent of Americans have been infected with SARS-CoV-2. In a study of 30,000 people, enough people will get infected within a few months to give good statistics. At the current rate of confirmed cases in the US, you'd expect about 10 people in the study to get infected each day (fewer if half of them are vaccinated and the vaccine works).

Without a placebo group, how will you measure effectiveness and safety? You need to monitor a statistically equivalent group of people to determine the difference in rates of infection and disease, and to look for side-effects.

Re: Vaccine hopes rise as Oxford jab prompts immune response among old and young

#685

Post by anoncake »

singemonkey wrote: post #144
marketingPro wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Suicide, abuse/trauma, avoided medical treatments, drug and alcohol addictions, and depression have all been seen to increase since we first had lockdowns. There is no safe solution, it's a decision between protecting the 0.5% old, obese, and sick or the 99.5%

Please provide evidence for this. (To avoid misunderstandings, evidence does not mean your unverified opinions). I'm particularly interested in your methodology for arriving at 0.5%, so a detailed data dump on that from you would be very useful.

The IFR is ~0.6%, the threshold for herd immunity is below 80% according to even the most pessimistic estimates. 80% * 0.6% = 0.5%.

Re: Vaccine hopes rise as Oxford jab prompts immune response among old and young

#686

Post by Vecr »

aphextron wrote: post #530
rlpb wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why risk it? It's worth pointing out that during a pandemic, while participating in a trial does carry a risk, so does not participating. A participant has some substantially greater probability* than the general population of avoiding an infection which apparently carries a risk of death or long term debilitating effects. * You'll have to incorporate the probability of being in the control group, of course, but th…

>It's worth pointing out that during a pandemic, while participating in a trial does carry a risk, so does not participating. A participant has some substantially greater probability* than the general population of avoiding an infection which apparently carries a risk of death or long term debilitating effects. Participating also carries risks beyond simply that of the vaccine. Being exposed to any kind of healthcare…

Try purchasing a silicone/rubber P100 respirator before doing so? I don't think the supply is a big problem in the US anymore.

Re: Vaccine hopes rise as Oxford jab prompts immune response among old and young

#688

Post by fastball »

res0nat0r wrote: post #625
dragonwriter wrote: post #620

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US, as a union or the states individually, generally does not mandate child immunizations. Many states make them (usually with fairly broad exemptions, often including belief-based) requirements for public schools, though.

They should mandate it across the board with only exceptions based in medical science.

No thanks?

Bodily autonomy is arguably the most important human right.

Re: Vaccine hopes rise as Oxford jab prompts immune response among old and young

#689

Post by aaron_m04 »

fastball wrote: post #610
harry8 wrote: post #580

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>That problem will solve itself then. At a considerable cost. There's a large number of people for whom the vaccine won't work when it has been taken correctly or who cannot take the vaccine because it will react very badly with their chemotherapy or whatever. This "let Darwin deal with the anti-vaxers" solution, though initially attractive, ends up being sociopathic when you dig into it.

And the alternative is...?

The alternative is to make vaccination a precondition for a lot of government services, particularly public education. Also there needs to be a heavy advertising campaign advocating for vaccination.

Re: Vaccine hopes rise as Oxford jab prompts immune response among old and young

#690

Post by aaron_m04 »

fastball wrote: post #688
res0nat0r wrote: post #625

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They should mandate it across the board with only exceptions based in medical science.

No thanks? Bodily autonomy is arguably the most important human right.

Are you okay with people defecating in public? Just curious.
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