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Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

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Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#201

Post by sebmellen »

antognini wrote: post #153
sebmellen wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is mainly a concern for one year leases that were renewed this March/April/May, which won't be renewed in 2021. There are many companies which budgeted for a few weeks or months of work from home, now they're transitioning permanently and the office space they were using is no longer needed.

Shouldn't we already be seeing this from leases that were signed in Q3 2019?

Yes, and we are seeing it, but there are many leases continuing until Q2 2021 (and beyond). The past few months have seen a slow and gradual decline, but a fair number of leases are still being paid and are locked in. Q2 2021 is when that decline accelerates and drops off a cliff.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#202

Post by ilaksh »

anonAndOn wrote: post #85

I really hope the creatives and studio types are taking advantage of this once-in-a-generation type opportunity to film in deserted SF neighborhoods. Post-apocalyptic, zombie or killer-virus* films could all be shot on location instead of some studio lot. *that may be a little too close to the truth

Are they really deserted though? Did the homeless people also move to Texas?

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#203

Post by [deleted] »

threeqhan wrote: post #152
steelframe wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And the managers, who subsist on meetings and in-person interaction, seem even more anxious to get everyone back in their desks. I recently quit my job so I could stop being a manager and return to IC, exactly because of this. In a WFH climate managers have to work twice as hard to stay competitive in the political games.

Sounds like they're half as useful to the business rather than their jobs are twice as hard

[deleted]

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#204

Post by ilaksh »

softwaredoug wrote: post #96

On the flipside, I wonder how much of a market there will be to rent individual offices? Many like working at home, but a lot of us have rather ad-hoc situations. Even with a perfect home office, kids etc at home can make concentration tough. And the space separation and seeing other adults is very valuable.

Should be an uptick in co-working businesses that would have offices.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#205

Post by Moru »

cm2187 wrote: post #184
kristopolous wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other week I was on real estate sites and I saw a bunch of "apartments" in SOMA that just looked like offices with some hastily slapped on anemities, as if there was some "wink wink nudge nudge" going on and they had to call the place an "apartment" for some city ordinance but everyone knew it was an office. However, I realized it was exactly the opposite. These people were taking their office spaces and desperat…

Looking at an office tower and a residential tower being built side by side by my window. I would never live in a converted office building. The resi tower has concrete separations between floors and if you are lucky, between flats on the same floor. Office buildings don’t have any real separation between floors as you are supposed to walk on accessible fake floors and have fake ceilings too. The sound insulation bet…

Thankfully you can do sound isolation without concrete. If they do that or want to save money is a different topic I guess.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#206

Post by diebeforei485 »

sjg007 wrote: post #108
diebeforei485 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many of them can't because they don't have sufficient plumbing everywhere (apartments would have far more bathrooms and kitchens) and most buildings can't be retrofitted. Plus, land-use laws would have to change, which is also extremely difficult.

You can reconfigure the more modern ones.

True, but the new buildings are also less likely to stay vacant because it's easier for them to attract tenants.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#207

Post by temp667 »

albacur wrote: post #137
digitaltrees wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to be hinting at interesting things here but its hard to follow, the writing feels like a disjointed short hand with unstated context that requires experience to unpack. What are "those empty Walgreens shelves", not having been there I don't know what you mean. Further, SF was not unique in experiencing that. I experienced it in North Carolina and Utah. What do you mean "squalor that is not that real?", what…

It might require the added context of living here. San Francisco has one of the highest property crime rates in the United States [1], and Walgreens is a popular target of shoplifters, who regularly clear out entire shelves of merchandise. The company hasn't come out and said it, but some believe that rampant shoplifting is a reason why eight Walgreens locations in the city have been permanently closed [2]. [1] https…

I have a family member who works at walgreens. The theft is incredible. In the bay area and particularly SF this is not one or two candy bars a week theft.

In SF, if you stop a shoplifter and they are hurt, if they are in a protected class etc, it's game over for you as an employee and possibly the store. Even if you stop someone, even if police come and arrest, DA is never going to prosecute. If they do prosecute, its a misdemeanor. It's pretty wild the first time you see it.

The clerks know who is coming in to steal. The stats above are from 2016. 2020 is worse, and much / most of the property crime goes unreported. If walgreens reported every shoplifting incident the numbers would be nuts.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#208

Post by sjg007 »

paulgb wrote: post #134
perardi wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

…yes, and? I said that. Quote: “salaried job with direct deposit”

I'm not the above poster, but I took your comment to mean direct deposit from your employer to your account, not direct deposit from the IRS to your account (for tax refunds, which is what I assume the above poster means).

Yep. It's any tax refund setup to direct deposit from the IRS to your bank account. It doesn't matter if you have employer direct deposit. One other problem is that many people in the US are unbanked so they get prepaid debit cards or a check.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#209

Post by Thorrez »

threeqhan wrote: post #152
steelframe wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And the managers, who subsist on meetings and in-person interaction, seem even more anxious to get everyone back in their desks. I recently quit my job so I could stop being a manager and return to IC, exactly because of this. In a WFH climate managers have to work twice as hard to stay competitive in the political games.

Sounds like they're half as useful to the business rather than their jobs are twice as hard

Effort and business utility are not necessarily linear. For argument's sake let's assume they are. A manager affects the productivity of all of his/her reports. Let's say a manager has 10 reports. If the manager stops working twice as hard, maybe all of the manager's reports would become 1/2 as productive. That means the manager's 2x work provides the same business utility as 5 ICs.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#210

Post by ComputerGuru »

dguaraglia wrote: post #188
bobbyi_settv wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 12 month lease for commercial real estate in SF?

That's not uncommon. Our office in North Beach was a 12-month deal. In fact, contracts tend to be longer (24 months or so).

I think that was the point. 12 months is atypically short.
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