Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

latimes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

91–100 of 248 posts

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#91

Post by op03 »

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

Who makes better food?

Thats all that matter. It was a crucial factor in the fall of the Romans (they hadn't invented pizza yet), the Mongols, the Brits, the Soviets, the Germans etc etc.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#92

Post by minerjoe »

naringas wrote: post #18

In my opinion how he handles his succession will be the key. if he acts like a nepot and tries to keep the power within his lineage, that's a sure sign of a classic story of decreseaingly capable rulers. I think that the capability of democractic systems to enforce a level of competence in the rulers are the real reason behind the West's success.

> enforce a level of competence

Can you please elaborate? In the US, I see "lying" and "corrupt" as some of the most defining characterisics of modern US "rulers".

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#93

Post by piccolo666 »

statquontrarian wrote: post #42
echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

Why care who "wins" or who's "bigger"? Our goal should be the greatest wealth for the most people for the whole Earth. This is accomplished with innovation and peaceful trade. One "side" discovers a new technology and the whole world can benefit. The primary driver of innovation is a competitive market in which individuals innovate through the pursuit of self-interest. The 20th century was a large experiment finalizi…

[dead]

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#94

Post by ericmay »

op03 wrote: post #91
echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

Who makes better food? Thats all that matter. It was a crucial factor in the fall of the Romans (they hadn't invented pizza yet), the Mongols, the Brits, the Soviets, the Germans etc etc.

This is interesting. Can you expand?

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#95

Post by skrebbel »

simonh wrote: post #12
echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

China is huge and powerful and still growing rapidly. It's nominal GDP is $15tn, compared to $20tn for the USA. However it's GDP per capita is 1/6th that of the USA because it has 4x the population. Of course the west, or the developed democracies are much more than just the USA. Also while China is catching up in many areas, it is far behind in many of the ones that really count. China's military infrastructure and…

The only area I know something about in your list is silicon chip tech, and I'm convinced that China will have at least one ASML competitor and at least one ARM competitor (or comparable) in the next 20 years, likely faster. Western countries trying to their block access to that tech (eg the US govt trying to stop ASML from shipping chip machines to China), is going to speed that up, not slow it down, because it creates a giant internal market for such tech.

All the Chinese government has to do to accomplish this is sit back and wait. There's plenty smart Chinese engineers and the market forces will do the rest.

(Source: I freelanced for a Chinese-owned lithography startup some years ago. It got run into the ground by bad management but that doesn't change much about my observations about market forces and Chinese engineers)

I have a hard time taking the rest of your list all too seriously given that the one I know something about is, I think, mistaken.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#96

Post by whimsicalism »

smallnamespace wrote: post #87
whimsicalism wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One major problem is that the people directing massive capital investments in the West are simply not as smart as the people directing massive capital investments in China. If your nation gets rich earlier, then hereditary passing on of wealth will mean that in a few generations the people making the decisions about capital allocation are no longer your best and brightest. All you need to do is look at the difference…

This problem with this argument is that it can be flipped on its head to justify an aristocracy: the wealthy today are the ‘best’ and they will pass on their genes, successful values, and educational strategies to their children.

> it can be flipped on its head to justify an aristocracy: the wealthy today are the ‘best’ and they will pass on their genes, successful values, and educational strategies to their children.

I disagree, I don't think this argument can be flipped on its head:

The point is that it's pretty clear that the wealthy today are not the best and that meritocratic approaches are much more effective than crossing your fingers and hoping that Einstein's kid will also be an Einstein.

A large reason why affluence and intelligence are at all correlated is because wealthy people have access to better education and better early childhood environments. The fact that even with those advantages, wealth is so uncorrelated with intelligence shows that we have a pretty big problem.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#97

Post by brobinson »

tsjq wrote: post #80
est31 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China would be severely affected by such a measure as well. This is WTO's doing, and is a big reason why there has been no world war 3. It's easy to wage war if your economy is truly sovereign, but with a nation your economy is intertwined with, it's hard to wage with. Trump's anti-China policy, while it is sensible in many ways, could have the ill effect of enabling a major war in a few years.

Could you pls elaborate on the WTO -> no WW3 angle ?

It's the "economic integration reduces conflict" falsehood which has been around for at least 100 years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Illusion

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#98

Post by landryraccoon »

novok wrote: post #40
lobotryas wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Countries that want money. When you ally with China you get fat stacks for infrastructure and other development projects that those nations (Africa, SEA, Eastern Europe) simply can’t afford on their own. Now you owe China favor so you will do as they ask when they come to collect.

What prevents countries from saying thanks china, we aren't going to pay and then allying with the rest of the west, or playing back and forth to negotiate ever better deals? The problem with infrastructure investment is it's hard to move.

A country never stops wanting more investment, and once a country has accepted investment money, there are parties in both nations that are incentivized to continue the relationship.

If a country takes money from China, they will continue to want to take more money from China instead of switching to a less well known, more risky alternative.

Also, if a country reneges on their investors, why would investors in any other country want to invest in them? They've already shown a willingness to go back on their agreements.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#99

Post by Der_Einzige »

lobotryas wrote: post #30
tehjoker wrote: post #25

Y'all need to stop seeing other countries through the lens of existential competition before it causes cold or hot wars and start cooperating internationally.

You need a little more realpolitik in your life. Nations are absolutely competing with each other because we live in a world of limited resources. Recognizing this fact and wanting your nation to come out on top are very normal.

Realpolitik means that we acknowledge that great power wars aren't an option while MAD exists - and that MAD isn't going anywhere for 100 years or more. That means that soft/economic power is far more important than hard power.

Anti-ICBM tech sucks balls and it only gets worse with new weapons like nuclear cruise missiles.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#100

Post by jakeva »

op03 wrote: post #91
echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

Who makes better food? Thats all that matter. It was a crucial factor in the fall of the Romans (they hadn't invented pizza yet), the Mongols, the Brits, the Soviets, the Germans etc etc.

My girlfriend is Chinese and she's the best cook I've ever met, so there's one opinionated bit of anecdata for you.
Post reply on HN