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Electoral College Decision Tree

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Re: Electoral College Decision Tree

#21

Post by function_seven »

protomyth wrote: post #3
atonse wrote: post #2

Nerd Me: This is a really nice use of this visualization. Human Me: I saw all this stuff in 2016 and Trump still beat the overwhelming odds. (Yes 16% chance of winning is still a chance, I get it... there's just so much deja vu with all these visualizations and articles about his campaign imploding).

I don't think Trump beat any overwhelming odds. I think the polling was beyond horrible. A bit too many people put too much faith in the NYT and 538's methodology. I wouldn't expect the map to change too much between elections. Now, the 2022 (House & some Senate) and 2024 Presidential will be different because of the change in districting and electoral votes per state caused by the census.

538 analyzed the various polls--and corrected for their methodologies and predictive power--just fine!

A sibling comment brings up a batter, and I think that's a great analogy. A good batter has a batting average of, say 0.273. Nobody is shocked when they hit the ball!

538 gave a similar chance to Trump. He hit the ball.

Re: Electoral College Decision Tree

#22

Post by OscarCunningham »

weakfish wrote: post #6
protomyth wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think Trump beat any overwhelming odds. I think the polling was beyond horrible. A bit too many people put too much faith in the NYT and 538's methodology. I wouldn't expect the map to change too much between elections. Now, the 2022 (House & some Senate) and 2024 Presidential will be different because of the change in districting and electoral votes per state caused by the census.

I thought 538 was one of the few outlets to give Trump a decent chance? Granted, I was 16 but I seem to remember that being the case.

You're right. They had him on about 33%, depending on exactly when you look.

Interestingly, in 2016 they thought Trump was more likely than the betting markets did. Betfair had him on about 22%. So if they were betting they'd have made a profit.

This year the situation has reversed. Betfair has 35% for Trump, whereas 538 has him on only 12%. So they'd be betting on Biden.

Re: Electoral College Decision Tree

#23

Post by alistairSH »

jstanley wrote: post #20
vanattab wrote: post #12

Really cool use of data visualization! Nice work! What ever happens I just pray we don't hit one of the paths ending in a unfilled circle.

Unless I'm misunderstanding something, it seems obviously dumb that the electoral college has an even number of members? Wouldn't making it an odd number prevent this possibility?

Yes, but that would require adding a Congressperson (#EC = #HofR + #Senate + 3 for DC).

Re: Electoral College Decision Tree

#25

Post by [deleted] »

jstanley wrote: post #20
vanattab wrote: post #12

Really cool use of data visualization! Nice work! What ever happens I just pray we don't hit one of the paths ending in a unfilled circle.

Unless I'm misunderstanding something, it seems obviously dumb that the electoral college has an even number of members? Wouldn't making it an odd number prevent this possibility?

[deleted]

Re: Electoral College Decision Tree

#26

Post by chromaton »

alistairSH wrote: post #23
jstanley wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless I'm misunderstanding something, it seems obviously dumb that the electoral college has an even number of members? Wouldn't making it an odd number prevent this possibility?

Yes, but that would require adding a Congressperson (#EC = #HofR + #Senate + 3 for DC).

Then the House of Representatives would have an even number.

Re: Electoral College Decision Tree

#27

Post by wtallis »

rayiner wrote: post #5
atonse wrote: post #2

Nerd Me: This is a really nice use of this visualization. Human Me: I saw all this stuff in 2016 and Trump still beat the overwhelming odds. (Yes 16% chance of winning is still a chance, I get it... there's just so much deja vu with all these visualizations and articles about his campaign imploding).

I think Biden will win by a big margin, but I suspect there is a lot more uncertainty baked into the polls than the headline number shows. Polling involves lots of assumptions and making adjustments based on expected turnout of different demographic groups and people with different voter registrations. 95% of people called do not take polls, so it’s not just a truly random sampling like people assume. This year, ther…

> It does not address the possibility that there are systematic methodological shortcomings in the polls.

Yes, it does. FiveThirtyEight's modeling includes sources of uncertainty beyond just the margin of sampling error of the individual polls.

They've tallied up how much the polling consensus erred for past elections, and have found that while it is not consistent which direction the polling consensus will err for a give election cycle, it is possible to quantify what is a typical size of polling error. Or to put it another way, which methodological shortcomings matter changes from one election to the next, but that doesn't stop you from estimating how big an effect it is likely to have.

Assuming that the polls are likely to be collectively wrong by some amount is why the FiveThirtyEight forecast's probability distribution is so wide, with their 80% confidence interval for Trump's electoral college vote total currently spanning roughly 120 to 280.

(They also include uncertainty factors for how much the true state of the electorate's opinions could shift between now and election day, but those factors are fading out of the forecast model as election day approaches.)

Re: Electoral College Decision Tree

#28

Post by bryanlarsen »

splatcollision wrote: post #14

So the fate of the world rests in the hands of Floridians...

According to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-ma...

If Biden wins Florida, then it's a >99% chance of a Biden victory.

But if Trump wins Florida, it's a 58% chance of a Biden victory.

So Florida is essential for Trump, but not for Biden. Biden has a 70% chance in Florida.

So I wouldn't say the fate of the world rests in the hands of Floridians. However, an early Biden win in Florida could allow networks to call the election on election night rather than having it drag out for weeks like it otherwise might.

Re: Electoral College Decision Tree

#29

Post by lmilcin »

splatcollision wrote: post #14

So the fate of the world rests in the hands of Floridians...

Actually, if you take a look at the graph, you will notice that paths that direct to red leaves are almost all almost entirely red whereas there is a lot of paths to blue leaves that are mostly or even almost entirely red.

Or think another way. The largest number of states that can be blue and red still wins is 4. There isn't any combination of any combinations where 5 of selected states are blue and red can still win.

To calculate actual probability don't look at just the number of read leaves to number of blue leaves. You need to take into account probability of each of the state being blue or red. I am too lazy to calculate it but at first sight red outcome seems extremely unlikely.

Re: Electoral College Decision Tree

#30

Post by advisedwang »

splatcollision wrote: post #14

So the fate of the world rests in the hands of Floridians...

The visualization presents Florida as the first decision point, but that is a choice of the visualization - you could make it the last choice and the visualization wouldn't look like this.

That said Florida does have a large number of electoral college votes and can swing, so it makes sense as a a choice of the designer.

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