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Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

npr.org

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Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#11

Post by dragonwriter »

legerdemain wrote: post #9
dragonwriter wrote: post #8

If low-risk groups engaged in more risky behavior and no other factor changed , you'd expect death rates of hospitalized patients to drop because a larger share of the hospitalized would be from groups at lower risk of death if hospitalized with COVID. Also, if hospitals learned more about interventions (like that ventilation wasn't appropriate as early or in as many cases as initially thought), and nothing else chan…

The article says the analysis controlled for age. Survival has improved in every age range.

> The article says the analysis controlled for age

Even if age was the only risk factor (in which case controlling for age would negate the first and third points), the second point would cover that. But age isn't the only risk factor, so all three points are still relevant.

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#12

Post by gnusty_gnurc »

m0zg wrote: post #10
gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm shocked how many people think Cuomo is a good leader when he (along with Murphy) made perhaps the most catastrophic choice of the pandemic so far.

Most people will believe whatever they read in the newspaper, and newspapers are unanimous in their opinion in this regard. As seniors were suffocating to death in the old folks homes, newspapers were pushing Cuomo as a _presidential candidate_.

True. Cuomo is imo as close as you can get to a typical Democrat politician and we’re told that it’s obvious a Democrat president would have handled the pandemic better.

The stats of hardest hit states are coincidentally blue states.

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#13

Post by inyourtenement »

gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #12
m0zg wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people will believe whatever they read in the newspaper, and newspapers are unanimous in their opinion in this regard. As seniors were suffocating to death in the old folks homes, newspapers were pushing Cuomo as a _presidential candidate_.

True. Cuomo is imo as close as you can get to a typical Democrat politician and we’re told that it’s obvious a Democrat president would have handled the pandemic better. The stats of hardest hit states are coincidentally blue states.

By what metric? The top states by total cases per 100k are all red and purple.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100k

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#14

Post by blmsjw »

inyourtenement wrote: post #13
gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True. Cuomo is imo as close as you can get to a typical Democrat politician and we’re told that it’s obvious a Democrat president would have handled the pandemic better. The stats of hardest hit states are coincidentally blue states.

By what metric? The top states by total cases per 100k are all red and purple. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100k

Arbitrary stat but ok. Deaths are kinda the most important otherwise we wouldn't be shutdown

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#15

Post by gnusty_gnurc »

inyourtenement wrote: post #13
gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True. Cuomo is imo as close as you can get to a typical Democrat politician and we’re told that it’s obvious a Democrat president would have handled the pandemic better. The stats of hardest hit states are coincidentally blue states.

By what metric? The top states by total cases per 100k are all red and purple. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100k

Measure by lives lost?

A case only really matters to clinical medicine if there’s some type of symptom.

Of course it benefits the “concerned” side to couch their argument in the idea of some murky, unobservable effects.

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#16

Post by inyourtenement »

blmsjw wrote: post #14
inyourtenement wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By what metric? The top states by total cases per 100k are all red and purple. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100k

Arbitrary stat but ok. Deaths are kinda the most important otherwise we wouldn't be shutdown

Arbitrary!?

This is nonsense. Are you suggesting that if this illness had all the same characteristics -- long hospital stays, long-lasting damage to the body, highly transmissible -- but didn't kill, then we would not be "shutdown"?

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#17

Post by inyourtenement »

gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #15
inyourtenement wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By what metric? The top states by total cases per 100k are all red and purple. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100k

Measure by lives lost? A case only really matters to clinical medicine if there’s some type of symptom. Of course it benefits the “concerned” side to couch their argument in the idea of some murky, unobservable effects.

Are deaths the only thing that matters to you? Shouldn't we be just as concerned about hospitalizations? Is there any reason that you're aware of for cases to not be a good proxy for hospitalizations?

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#18

Post by gnusty_gnurc »

inyourtenement wrote: post #17
gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Measure by lives lost? A case only really matters to clinical medicine if there’s some type of symptom. Of course it benefits the “concerned” side to couch their argument in the idea of some murky, unobservable effects.

Are deaths the only thing that matters to you? Shouldn't we be just as concerned about hospitalizations? Is there any reason that you're aware of for cases to not be a good proxy for hospitalizations?

My point is that: hospitalizations != cases

It would make sense that an observed drop in deaths would correspond to a drop in hospitalizations if the case number is rising significantly.

That's good imo.

edit: CDC graph shows hospitalization rate steadily dropping.

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#19

Post by inyourtenement »

gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #18
inyourtenement wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are deaths the only thing that matters to you? Shouldn't we be just as concerned about hospitalizations? Is there any reason that you're aware of for cases to not be a good proxy for hospitalizations?

My point is that: hospitalizations != cases It would make sense that an observed drop in deaths would correspond to a drop in hospitalizations if the case number is rising significantly. That's good imo. edit: CDC graph shows hospitalization rate steadily dropping.

When you say "observed drop in deaths" are you referring back to the original article? Because the first sentence is "Two new peer-reviewed studies are showing a sharp drop in mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients." so I'm having trouble making sense of what you're saying.

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#20

Post by blmsjw »

inyourtenement wrote: post #16
blmsjw wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arbitrary stat but ok. Deaths are kinda the most important otherwise we wouldn't be shutdown

Arbitrary!? This is nonsense. Are you suggesting that if this illness had all the same characteristics -- long hospital stays, long-lasting damage to the body, highly transmissible -- but didn't kill, then we would not be "shutdown"?

Yes Arbitrary. Why 100k? Why not 10, 100, 1000, 10,000, 1,000,000? Oh because 100k makes the stats look the best for your argument.
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