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Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

science.sciencemag.org

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Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#71

Post by seppel »

_greim_ wrote: post #65
thotsBgone wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder why we never hear serious talk of trying to cure the common cold. It reminds me of how people who talk about curing aging are seen as crackpots. Unlike cancer, aging and colds are seen as inevitable by people, and any attempt to cure them, or even talk about the fact that we should, is seen as fanciful.

Can't remember where I read it, but the idea was that using existing vaccine tech to knock out pretty much any virus is a major financial undertaking. Now multiply that by 100x, or however many common-cold-causing viruses exist. Keyword being existing . Future advances may change the landscape significantly, and not just for colds. For that, we need a stable society, competent governance, and investment in foundation…

> Can't remember where I read it, but the idea was that using existing vaccine tech to knock out pretty much any virus is a major financial undertaking. Now multiply that by 100x, or however many common-cold-causing viruses exist.

It seems quite strange to me that this should be multiplicative. There should be some economics of scale, especially for viruses from the same family.

(It is also quite strange to me that the SARS-2 vaccine takes some long, as if we have to invent the vaccine technology from scratch. But granted, I don't know much about this field. Maybe it is not a technology problem but mostly testing and approval)

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#72

Post by Buttons840 »

simonh wrote: post #46
hyko wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why stop fighting when it becomes just a cold? The common cold costs billions (not to mention making people miserable).

Please don't do that. Nobody said not to fight it, we do fight colds already, it just wouldn't be news anymore. Did you know there are four coronaviruses that cause cold-like symptoms? I didn't, because I didn't really care. That's all Op is saying.

> Please don't do that.

What do you mean? Don't do what?

Please don't make that argument your making? Please don't make your argument in that way? Please don't argue at all? Please don't ask questions?

Literally, all the comment you responded to did what ask a question to invite further discussion of an idea they were interested in.

When I hear "please don't do that" I picture kids pulling up flowers in someone's yard and they yell out "please don't do that!" It seems aggressive and unspecific for a civilized discussion among equals.

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#73

Post by jimmygrapes »

formerly_proven wrote: post #63
dehrmann wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On one hand, fair. One the other, when have we seen life not adapt?

Masks work by physically filtering viruses out of the air. How do you propose shall a virus adapt to that? The thing's packed with DNA, it can't easily evolve to be 1/10th the diameter (and 1/1000th the volume) to get through filters.

Except that's exactly how most masks people wear do NOT work; they serve simply to prevent large particles (spittle) to move too far from their origin. Yeah there are better masks/SCBAs, but even common use and enforcement of something that actually stops a virus is impossible so long as people keep chanting the "empathy" mantra.

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#74

Post by ry454 »

rich_sasha wrote: post #11

If it does become endemic, the question is, what disease would it cause? The deadly Spanish and Hong Kong flu viruses didn't disappear, but rather evolved to cause yet-another seasonal flu after a few seasons. If the Covid virus does the same and causes yet-another-cold, who cares? Whereas if we're fighting Covid-the-disease for decades to come, well, God help us!

Eh.. this will cost me some reputation points on HN, but I have to say this.

Why "Spanish flu" and not H1N1-A-18? That flu is called "Spanish" only because Spain's newspapers openly talked about the epidemic. The actual origin, according to wikipedia, was "likely Kansas".

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#75

Post by lsllc »

wtetzner wrote: post #67
pmoriarty wrote: post #8

With so many people ignorant of the science, believing in wild conspiracy theories, being antivaxers and antimakers, of course it's going to become endemic. It remains to be seen if most people will even get vaccinated if/when a safe and effective vaccine becomes available. Even if people got vaccinated once, to actually eradicate COVID-19 they might have to get revaccinated multiple times, possibly over a span of ye…

> A major shift in thinking and priorites has to happen globally, on many different fronts to make humans less vulnerable to this kind of disease in the long-run. I don't necessarily disagree with this, but I don't think the current mitigations can reasonably be long-term solutions. Think about how the lockdowns have caused small businesses to close down, people to lose their jobs, etc. We count deaths caused by COVI…

Anecdotally: in my years on this planet, I've never known anyone who committed suicide (thankfully).

However in the last 3 months, I've had both a friend and a relative kill themselves unexpectedly, both laid off since March, unable to work, financial issues, no hope and one just recently in an area just gone back into lockdown.

It is very much easier for those of us who are able to WFH taking Zoom meetings in PJs with Amazon Fresh delivering groceries to the door. But for a big chunk of the populace, these are really hard times.

I do not know what the right answer is, but you have a very good point.

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#76

Post by wezen »

ry454 wrote: post #74
rich_sasha wrote: post #11

If it does become endemic, the question is, what disease would it cause? The deadly Spanish and Hong Kong flu viruses didn't disappear, but rather evolved to cause yet-another seasonal flu after a few seasons. If the Covid virus does the same and causes yet-another-cold, who cares? Whereas if we're fighting Covid-the-disease for decades to come, well, God help us!

Eh.. this will cost me some reputation points on HN, but I have to say this. Why "Spanish flu" and not H1N1-A-18? That flu is called "Spanish" only because Spain's newspapers openly talked about the epidemic. The actual origin, according to wikipedia, was "likely Kansas".

Because by now everyone knows it as "Spanish flu". If you say H1N1-A-18, almost nobody would know what you're talking about.

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#77

Post by ry454 »

wezen wrote: post #76
ry454 wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh.. this will cost me some reputation points on HN, but I have to say this. Why "Spanish flu" and not H1N1-A-18? That flu is called "Spanish" only because Spain's newspapers openly talked about the epidemic. The actual origin, according to wikipedia, was "likely Kansas".

Because by now everyone knows it as "Spanish flu". If you say H1N1-A-18, almost nobody would know what you're talking about.

Luckily, we won't have this problem with "SARS-CoV-2".

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#78

Post by tinus_hn »

hyko wrote: post #45
rich_sasha wrote: post #11

If it does become endemic, the question is, what disease would it cause? The deadly Spanish and Hong Kong flu viruses didn't disappear, but rather evolved to cause yet-another seasonal flu after a few seasons. If the Covid virus does the same and causes yet-another-cold, who cares? Whereas if we're fighting Covid-the-disease for decades to come, well, God help us!

Why stop fighting when it becomes just a cold? The common cold costs billions (not to mention making people miserable).

But would you consider it reasonable to force people into lockdowns and quarantines for the cold?

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#79

Post by tinus_hn »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #4

Of course, no way to control coordinated mask wearing for 7 billion people simultaneously without decades of planning. HIV has killed around 50 million over the past 40 years, and we know how to stop that but it is still endemic and will be for at least a century.

Medication exists that can prevent HIV from causing AIDS and from passing the infection to others and also medication exists that can prevent the user from becoming infected.

Practically speaking HIV is a solved problem.

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#80

Post by marcosdumay »

hyko wrote: post #45
rich_sasha wrote: post #11

If it does become endemic, the question is, what disease would it cause? The deadly Spanish and Hong Kong flu viruses didn't disappear, but rather evolved to cause yet-another seasonal flu after a few seasons. If the Covid virus does the same and causes yet-another-cold, who cares? Whereas if we're fighting Covid-the-disease for decades to come, well, God help us!

Why stop fighting when it becomes just a cold? The common cold costs billions (not to mention making people miserable).

By all means, keep the vaccine research, incentive people to wear masks when sick, stop the worst hygienic practices (like hand pushers on public restroom doors), keep WFH where it works, etc.

But nobody will accept a full quarantine, commerce restrictions, or any of the other heavy actions for fighting a normal cold. And with a lot of reason. It's best if people don't even propose carrying those practices after the disease gets less lethal, because even proposing them can bring bad consequences right now.

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