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Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

science.sciencemag.org

21–30 of 106 posts

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#21
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm not sure why no one's saying this, but the virus is adapting to masks Citation needed

On one hand, fair. One the other, when have we seen life not adapt?

Mice can get through small holes, but they won't adapt to fit through pin holes.

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#23
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, HIV is different - once you have it you’re infectious for life unless without some sort of intervention.

Sure, but you also can't transmit HIV just by being in the same room.

I reckon it's harder to get people to always practice safe sex than it is to wear masks.

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#24
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm not sure why no one's saying this, but the virus is adapting to masks Citation needed

On one hand, fair. One the other, when have we seen life not adapt?

More than 99% of species that have ever lived are now extinct.

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#25
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the general consensus that the virus would be eradicated if everyone wore a mask? Is it enough?

Like a sibling comment said, only if r0 is small, and not just small, but goes-away-fast small. I'm not sure why no one's saying this, but the virus is adapting to masks, and at some point (we don't know when), they'll become less effective. I'd be pushing for switching guidelines to an N95 minimum, and since there are (still?) shortages, remind people they actually last a while, they're effectively disinfected if yo…

> and it's generally not worth it to wear a mask to go on a walk.

Some countries make this mandatory, e.g. Italy

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but you also can't transmit HIV just by being in the same room.

I reckon it's harder to get people to always practice safe sex than it is to wear masks.

Unless you're in California where it's legal to knowingly give someone HIV without telling them.

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#27
I thought it already was, and the media, politicians, and general public were simply evidencing typical cluelessness.

The last time I can recall reading a credible 'we can stop this' message was around February; Stat news IIRC.

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#28
post #27

I thought it already was, and the media, politicians, and general public were simply evidencing typical cluelessness. The last time I can recall reading a credible 'we can stop this' message was around February; Stat news IIRC.

At the moment we are going through a pandemic caused by a first contact with the virus. This is not an endemic state.

Once this is over, if the virus remains in some sort of steady state in a given area, i.e. person to person transmission never stops so that a least a few cases always exist, then it will have become endemic in that area.

Globally it might become endemic, or it might not, or a large-scale vaccination program might kill it off anyway. We don't know.

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#29
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can’t just put all the “many” people in the same bucket. I hate this so much now in various circles. I also saw someone else with a similar idea: “why is there a second wave, are so many people anti maskers and non COVID believers?”. No, people had enough of the fumbling and incoherent messages, people are tired and the world is made up not just of developers that can work from home and see this pandemic from the…

There's also the issue that while it's deadlier than the flu, it's not that much deadlier, so people are genuinely looking at death rates and making different value judgements on if various restrictions are worth it.

"while it's deadlier than the flu, it's not that much deadlier"

From just a week ago: "Covid deaths three times higher than flu and pneumonia"[1]

And that's taking in to account all the lockdown, mask-wearing, and social distancing measures. Without those it'd be even worse.

[1] - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54463511

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