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Why are so many unprofitable companies the best performing stocks this year?

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Re: Why are so many unprofitable companies the best performing stocks this year?

#61
post #27

I don’t know much about the stock market outside of throwing any savings I can muster into a vanguard fund, but articles like this remind me of the scene from Silicon Valley where the Pied Piper team is talking about finding a revenue stream. Their investor, the Mark Cuban caricature, Russ Hanneman butts in and yells at them about the dangers of showing revenue and how it proves you might only be a 2x-er. "It's not a…

> Their investor, the Mark Cuban caricature, Russ Hanneman I didn't know that's what they had intended. I never once thought that's what they were going for.

I always thought Russ Hanneman was based on Sean Parker, he had an over the top flashy lifestyle.

Re: Why are so many unprofitable companies the best performing stocks this year?

#62
post #29

It is very simple. There are two things happening here. One: the Fed has invested trillions buying everything under the sun (not just t-bills) to prop up the markets and make it look the economy is fine. Two: interest rates are being held artificially low by the Fed and have been for a while. So people are desperate for returns and the only place to get it is equities. It is a pyramid scheme and must pop someday. Rea…

You're correct, but I think the "mystery" here is why a basket of unprofitable companies is outperforming broader indices.

Re: Why are so many unprofitable companies the best performing stocks this year?

#63

I don’t know much about the stock market outside of throwing any savings I can muster into a vanguard fund, but articles like this remind me of the scene from Silicon Valley where the Pied Piper team is talking about finding a revenue stream. Their investor, the Mark Cuban caricature, Russ Hanneman butts in and yells at them about the dangers of showing revenue and how it proves you might only be a 2x-er. "It's not a…

>I don’t know much about the stock market outside of throwing any savings I can muster into a vanguard fund. You have just answered your own question. If enough people make financial decisions based on a specific metric, rather than their own understanding, of course they will be a whole industry of companies trying to game the KPI and make sure your uninformed dollar ends up in their coffers.

What question are you talking about? What is your point exactly?

Re: Why are so many unprofitable companies the best performing stocks this year?

#64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

USA is all in, expect military to prevent the pop

What will they do, put a gun to consumers’ heads to force them to buy exercise bikes and the latest iPhone models?

Close, but you're missing a step: create new money, give it to Americans so they can afford to buy exercise bikes, put a gun to the head of anyone who dares challenge the US dollar hegemony.

Re: Why are so many unprofitable companies the best performing stocks this year?

#65
post #56
post #4

Small speculative unprofitable growth companies outside the major indexes are usually always the best performing stocks, because stocks in the same category are in the list of worst performing too. They have huge volatility.

lol at “small” Tesla has 10x’d from a year and now at a $420B valuation. That makes it one of the largest companies in the world (I believe top 15) All the companies that fit in this category like Carvana, Wayfair, Overstock etc are now at $10B-$30B valuations. Point is these are not small by any means.

Why would you use the market cap as a measure for large when we're discussing overvaluation? It seems like more fundamental measures (revenue, earnings, market share) would be more appropriate.

Re: Why are so many unprofitable companies the best performing stocks this year?

#66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I don’t know much about the stock market outside of throwing any savings I can muster into a vanguard fund. You have just answered your own question. If enough people make financial decisions based on a specific metric, rather than their own understanding, of course they will be a whole industry of companies trying to game the KPI and make sure your uninformed dollar ends up in their coffers.

What question are you talking about? What is your point exactly?

The point is that blindly copying the investment strategy used by a majority of other players inevitably leads to what some call a bubble.

Re: Why are so many unprofitable companies the best performing stocks this year?

#67

"Almost one in five of these money-losing companies is up 100% or more this year. There are some huge gainers on this list including companies like Overstock.com (+1055%), Tesla (+429%), Peloton (+348%) and Moderna (+285%). But there are also plenty of big losers of these money-losing firms. More than one-quarter of these stocks are down 10% or more this year while almost 50 names have fallen 30% or more in 2020." So…

> For a meaningful analysis, you would need to dig into the winning stocks specifically and ask why they're up so much. IMHO rationalization of this is very random at best. Why is Zoom (up >600% YTD) really worth it? Most of the big tech cos. can replace Zoom overnight. I use Google Meet daily without the trivial bells-n-whistles that Zoom offers. Absolutely no adjustments needed! Jio in India (where I am from) would…

I don't disagree. In a lot of cases, like Zoom, there's a stupid amount of free capital floating around due to effectively-zero interest rates, and not many places with decent returns to invest it. So anything that gets hyped as a good place to put it (like tech stocks) gets blown out of proportion and underlying fundamentals don't really come into play. Basically, investors (and the market) aren't rational right now.

Re: Why are so many unprofitable companies the best performing stocks this year?

#68
post #62
post #29

It is very simple. There are two things happening here. One: the Fed has invested trillions buying everything under the sun (not just t-bills) to prop up the markets and make it look the economy is fine. Two: interest rates are being held artificially low by the Fed and have been for a while. So people are desperate for returns and the only place to get it is equities. It is a pyramid scheme and must pop someday. Rea…

You're correct, but I think the "mystery" here is why a basket of unprofitable companies is outperforming broader indices.

Because of perceived future value, and if you had only certain avenues to bet on , then tech would be at the top. Added to that, gamified platforms like Robinhood, where there are a whole bunch of new, inexperienced investors. Robin hood added like 3 million customers in the months after covid.

Re: Why are so many unprofitable companies the best performing stocks this year?

#69

The volatility of the market makes for easy profits. Did an excercise on marketwatch in school one time. I traded random symbols that met my criteria and made a fat virtual profit. I kept it going after the experiment and realized the only reason I did well was because of the variability of that time for the market. I would kill to have some extra cash to invest right now/3 months ago, panicked laymen make investing…

Did this work for a relatively long term? The general sentiment is lots of strategies work during bull markets but then get crushed by volatility in bear markets since the drawdown tends to be higher

Re: Why are so many unprofitable companies the best performing stocks this year?

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

USA is all in, expect military to prevent the pop

What will they do, put a gun to consumers’ heads to force them to buy exercise bikes and the latest iPhone models?

USA will negotiate ever more blatantly slanted Trade Agreements backed by sanctions (Russia), regime destabilization (Middle East) etc
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