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San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

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Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#581

Post by anonyxyz »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #412
opportune wrote: post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m honestly surprised so many people put Bay Area/SF food on the same scale as NYC and LA. It only makes sense when you consider top-tier fine dining (like, Michelin star(s)) IMO. For middle-tier dining I think SF and the Bay Area don’t even come close to either of those cities. In fact I think those hip young college towns are much better, in my experience. It’s just that it’s going to be a different set of foods:…

I would say middle tier food in SF is easily better than NYC.

Only if youre eating mexican or clam chowder.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#582

Post by skocznymroczny »

burlesona wrote: post #51

I would say the city being “closed” is the major driver. Among my group of ~40 coworkers, about 30 (including me) have left the city. As far as I know all but one were renting. Everyone who left gave the following rationale: - we can work remotely so move wherever or nomad now - SF is not very fun during the pandemic - WFH in my tiny apartment is much less enjoyable than when I was working in the office and didn’t sp…

I am not American, what is considered "a tiny apartament", how many square meters are we talking about?

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#583

Post by hal9000-tng »

throwaway1777 wrote: post #508
georgeecollins wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> The magnitude of that demand will never reach the same height. Growth of cities and the increase of wealth of cities is 5,000 year trend, that includes in its history pandemics and plagues.

People really do need to zoom out a little bit. Yes, we may see negative or slow growth in some cities over the next couple years, but in 50 years? I would bet NYC, SF, and other big cities will be stronger than ever.

.. except there will probably be more pandemics within the next 50 years.

Given that we've had multiple localized epidemics or global pandemics in the last two decades alone (SARS, Ebola, Swine Flu/H1N1, etc), the likelihood of more seems increasingly high. Perhaps it doesn't even matter whether the next one will have a higher CFR; whether large cities prosper depends not only on whether people believe it will, but also on how well the cities do in many other respects, such as crime, taxes, pollution, trash, homelessness, etc. SF is not only suffering because of the pandemic: the pandemic just put an extra sense of urgency on the snowball effect that was already happening.

When cities are safe, healthy, clean and beautiful, they're great and everyone is happy to live there, but now? Not so much.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#584

Post by hal9000-tng »

_4570 wrote: post #564
georgeecollins wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> The magnitude of that demand will never reach the same height. Growth of cities and the increase of wealth of cities is 5,000 year trend, that includes in its history pandemics and plagues.

How much of that history includes jobs that can be done remotely? I'd say that's a significant change for certain cities that have a significant such workforce.

Agreed. What has happened in the last 75 years is historically new:

1. The growth of information/knowledge (the Information Age) jobs, which are now the majority of all jobs in the U.S.

2. The growth of remote work tools (the jury is out on how productive people are remotely at the moment, but new tech will drive this soon so that you will be just as or almost as effective in your kitchen or local coffee shop)

3. The growth of global transportation (the Jet Age) that allows previously localized diseases to spread globally in hours, instead of months or years

These factors are new and together likely presage a historic shift in how and where people work.

Ironically, except for this market adjustment in larger cities, the ability for people to work productively in other locations will put continuing downward pressure on the cost of living in cities as people leave, and probably hit some sort of equilibrium at some point soon.

... all this to mean that you should sell your investment properties in the Tenderloin ;)

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#585

Post by user5994461 »

rsync wrote: post #40
mxcrossb wrote: post #26

> The figures underscore how the pandemic has roiled property markets and changed renter preferences. With companies allowing employees to work from home, people have fled cramped and costly urban areas in droves, seeking extra room in the suburbs or cheaper cities. I am skeptical. Yes a lot of Bay Area companies are allowing work from home for now, but are people really weighing that so heavily that they’re moving?…

"I am skeptical. Yes a lot of Bay Area companies are allowing work from home for now, but are people really weighing that so heavily that they’re moving?" It is the marginal buyer, not the entire population, that swings the price. It's the last few properties for sale that swing the price. Someone downthread explained it very nicely: "Rent is like a traffic jam. The market collapses on the margin. You don't need to r…

You should consider that the market really removed 30% of the residents. When 30% of people don't know whether they will be able to find/keep a job to pay the expensive rent, they simply refused to pay the current rent or found themselves unable to. Rent went down.

For me and most people I know when the landlord came asking about renewal (London is all about yearly contracts) for a similar price or more, he was told to f* off. When everybody is doing that, rent is going down.

In a sense the perception of the market is driving the market. The virus is affecting 90% of the population, it's not just hitting the margin.

I say landlord but it's very often a letting agency (taking commission for finding tenants), the landlord is someone abroad or an investment company that's nowhere to be seen. They don't have each other interest at heart.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#586

Post by burlesona »

skocznymroczny wrote: post #582
burlesona wrote: post #51

I would say the city being “closed” is the major driver. Among my group of ~40 coworkers, about 30 (including me) have left the city. As far as I know all but one were renting. Everyone who left gave the following rationale: - we can work remotely so move wherever or nomad now - SF is not very fun during the pandemic - WFH in my tiny apartment is much less enjoyable than when I was working in the office and didn’t sp…

I am not American, what is considered "a tiny apartament", how many square meters are we talking about?

It depends but anywhere from 30-50 square meters. In SF anything over 90 square meters is considered a large apartment.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#587

Post by vikramkr »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #143
vikramkr wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A better example is brand name prescription drugs. State substitution laws end up meaning that when generics come on market, a lot of consumers become proce sensitive by law since the pharmacy must fill the prescription with the lower priced generic. However, anyone who is still buying the brand name at that point is highly inelastic - they really want the brand name only for whatever reason. Thats why the brand name…

In particular it's not only brand name medications, but patented ones, because then there is by law only one supplier, and the temporarily high price is on purpose as a reward for developing the new drug. The problem we have then is that it's getting paid for by insurance, and we don't have a good mechanism to distinguish between essential things and merely new things. If somebody comes up with the cure for cancer, l…

Well actually, the only patent prescription drug is a bit elastic since insurance/PBMs negotiate on price. In referring to the particular case of a formerly on patent brand name drug that goes off patent that spikes in price.

You'll notice that even over the counter non patented brand name drugs are more expensive than the generics - brand loyalty breeds inelasticity

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#588

Post by unishark »

kelnos wrote: post #488
tchaffee wrote: post #431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

France, Italy, Mexico, Peru, Basque, and Japan are all examples of places with mostly one ethnic group and great food scenes.

Very true! But I'd be disappointed if the only plentiful cuisine was the local one. As much as I love each of the cuisines you mentioned, I can't imagine predominately eating any one of them.

I think in Japan you could probably go to a different restaurant serving a different type of Japanese food (e.g. ramen, sushi, soba, tempura, steak... even the US has the more famous ones) and continue on for weeks before exhausting the possible options for different restaurant types, all of which count as "local" food. At least local to the country.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#589

Post by clmckinley »

georgeecollins wrote: post #327
corytheboyd wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My guess as to what will happen, for the sake of playing along with the hypothetical simply because it’s fun. Destination cities will still be desirable, however there will be a very slow rebuilding of demand. The magnitude of that demand will never reach the same height. The entire world was forced to work from home for an extended period of time, introducing those from industries that would scoff at the idea to a d…

>> The magnitude of that demand will never reach the same height. Growth of cities and the increase of wealth of cities is 5,000 year trend, that includes in its history pandemics and plagues.

I would argue that high paying jobs are a big driver of cities and never in human history have people had the ability to work in high paying jobs outside of big cities like we do now. The ability to effectively work remotely is largely dependent on job duties and IT in general can work remotely with little productivity loss. Hence the bay area getting hit harder than most.

To me the question is whether companies/employees will continue letting/wanting to work remotely in the future. I am certainly not concerned about a population collapse in big cities because many companies and people want to live there and don't because of cost.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#590

Post by unishark »

jzoch wrote: post #377
tarsinge wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> food or retail scene In my experience this is becoming less and less true, smaller cities are really catching up, it's not 2010 anymore. My pet theory is that social networks like Instagram have done a good job spreading fashion and food experiences/expectations that were previously exclusives to big city centers.

As everyone else is echoing - really not true. I grew up in Orange County which, for a suburb, has really good food options. Tons and tons of restaurants and a lot of people accustomed to nice things. The difference in food options between SF (where I am now) and OC (or LA vs OC) is absolutely astounding. Its really not even close. Its gotten better but large cities are still orders of magnitude better.

LA itself is mostly suburb too though.
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