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San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

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Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#371

Post by JMTQp8lwXL »

jeffbee wrote: post #41
sailingparrot wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US inflation over that period was 35%. So that means rent increased by ~50% in 15 years, this is way less than I imagined for SF.

That cherry-picks the top tick from the last housing price bubble. Compared to either 10 or 20 years ago, housing prices have more than doubled. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SFXRSA

To be fair, we could say you 'cherry picked' by selecting the 20 year mark. It's just as cherry picked as picking the peak: it's a discrete moment in time, compared to the present, in either case.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#372

Post by graeme »

bitbckt wrote: post #363
pgwhalen wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what sense are we not closer to a vaccine? I’m not following vaccine development closely, but my understanding is that many candidates are progressing along nicely.

Just today, for example: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/10/13/covid-vacci...

That’s extremely routine procedure for any trial. When there’s an u explained illness the trial is halted to investigate if it is linked to the vaccine or not.

If it isn’t, the trial resumes.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#373

Post by verst »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #242
seattletech wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's driven alot by the superior schools in Bellevue. 30% of Seattle kids go to private schools...

That isn’t true, no way do 30% of Seattle students go to private school. We moved to Ballard, which has some pretty good schools (it’s high school is a 9/10). And yes, schools are why we didn’t consider south Seattle.

Hello neighbor - I bought my first house in Ballard this February myself.

For SF / SV readers: Ballard is a hip Seattle neighborhood, somewhat like Hayes Valley but also near a beach and bike paths. My house is new construction and walking distance to everything. I paid list price.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#374

Post by JMTQp8lwXL »

justinzollars wrote: post #108

A lot of people I know have left San Francisco, many businesses have closed. I'm curious to see voter turnout this year as a further evidence marker. You can see all things being equal [1] amongst bay Area counties SF sales tax went up only 1% from April to June - implying large amounts of people have actually left the city, consistent with anecdotal evidence I see such as friends leaving and seeing many moving truck…

Lower sales tax receipts could also imply people are spending less due to lockdowns and fear of catching the virus.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#375

Post by mancerayder »

colinmhayes wrote: post #339
hnarn wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it’s pretty naive to assume people having a problem with drug deals happening in their neighborhood are primarily concerned with the drugs themselves — although some may have moralist reasons to feel uncomfortable with illicit drug trading, most regular people probably feel that way due to the inescapable consequences of it, which are many. Some examples include violent crime, burglaries, robberies, and the g…

I mean people are going to take drugs either way right? Let's not pretend rural America doesn't struggle with addiction. I guess I can see the "out of sight out of mind" that seeing the transaction occur reminds you of societies failures, but you still know it's happening.

There's collateral damage from the drug trade. I'm not arguing one way or another in terms of legality. All I can say is with absolute certainty is that the drug market has competition for clients and space, and if you look at shootings in NYC and Chicago, you'll find the majority of them gang-related. Gangs compete over territory and profit, just as you'd expect them to.

These are not intersectionally-educated feminists in coffeeshops distributing sustainably-sourced organic heroin at cost, here.

There's no 'lesson to be learned' from observing a drug transaction or living next to a drug corner, which is impled by your statement of knowing about society's failures.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#376

Post by dudul »

mxcrossb wrote: post #115
zdragnar wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a counter anecdote, I know three people from the bay area who moved out during covidtide, but had already planned the move beforehand. (This is a very high percentage of people I know from the bay area, hence the anecdote). All had the same rationale: taxes and housing were simply far too high when they could work remotely and live anywhere else. Sure, you don't get the same outdoors, food or retail scene, but ple…

This is the mindset I really don’t understand though. Sure your company can say “we’re all remote” today, but they can just as easily say “everyone has to come back” in six months. Or “everyone doesn’t have to, but those who don’t are the first laid off next time”. I’ve been fully remote since March, so I’ve been weighing this for awhile”

I think this ship has sailed. When even FAANGs start doing full time remote who would be crazy enough to go back to on-site only?

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#377

Post by jzoch »

tarsinge wrote: post #137
zdragnar wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a counter anecdote, I know three people from the bay area who moved out during covidtide, but had already planned the move beforehand. (This is a very high percentage of people I know from the bay area, hence the anecdote). All had the same rationale: taxes and housing were simply far too high when they could work remotely and live anywhere else. Sure, you don't get the same outdoors, food or retail scene, but ple…

> food or retail scene In my experience this is becoming less and less true, smaller cities are really catching up, it's not 2010 anymore. My pet theory is that social networks like Instagram have done a good job spreading fashion and food experiences/expectations that were previously exclusives to big city centers.

As everyone else is echoing - really not true. I grew up in Orange County which, for a suburb, has really good food options. Tons and tons of restaurants and a lot of people accustomed to nice things.

The difference in food options between SF (where I am now) and OC (or LA vs OC) is absolutely astounding. Its really not even close. Its gotten better but large cities are still orders of magnitude better.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#378

Post by asdff »

colinmhayes wrote: post #309
bgorman wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please report back in February after experiencing a -40 day :)

There are no -40 days in Chicago, but I'll agree the winter is unbearable. I don't mind the cold. I mind the never ending cold. December + January are fine, February is depressing, but March and April really are awful.

Even worse than the cold imo is the 'about to be cold' weather preceeding and following winter. Rain that freezes overnight and encases your car right when you have to run to work. Muck and mud everywhere the minute you step off a path. Everything green turns to brown. Coupled with the limited daylight and it's depressing, frankly.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#379

Post by kumarski »

San Francisco is rekt on so many levels and irrecoverable.

Pensiontracker.org

This is why I left:

I’m bullish on the W2-pocalypse and bought Facebook, did you? Facebook twisted its earnings with W2pocalypse.

Silently through the night W2’s are being slashed, this is front running the onerous taxes, fees, and small scale apocalypse that has been accumulating in California.

Let me walk you through some metrics on California.

Min. wage $12/hr

40% of California’s income tax revenue is generated by .5% of the state’s population. (the wealthy)

California’s new tax bill targets the wealthy more on top of what they’re already charged.

1% for $1M-$2M

3% for $2M-$5M

3.5% for $5M+

The worst part is that these taxes are possible for the 2020 year retroactively, meaning if you decided to stay in California under the existing tax regime, they can come after you for the new rate hike. (assuming you’re wealthy)

California’s congress is single party and this bill will likely pass according to some friends of mine who sit in legal and policy spheres.

California is aggressive in collecting taxes from moving residents in all other 49 states.

$50,000/yr or less is 60 percent of California tax filings but ~2 percent of its income tax revenue.

SFBA makes up 40% of the state’s income tax revenue but makes up only 20% of the state population California has the highest average impact fees for construction of a single-family home, at $23,455. (up to 3 times higher than other states)

25-34 year olds can’t easily own homes in the state of California. ~500k+ is the minimum to purchase a home, at least 5-10 times a yearly salary.

7.25% to 10.25% is the sales tax depending on which county you’re in. https://www.cdtfa.ca.gov/formspubs/cdtfa95.pdf

The bottom 20% pay 7% of their The state’s pension unfunded liabilities are estimated to total $93.1 billion ($59.7 billion at CalPERS for state employee pensions and $33.4 billion at CalSTRS for teachers’ pensions) California has some of the highest electricity costs, it will go green and the price will go to $0.25-$0.40/kwh in the next 2-4 years likely.

In some cases, your electricity rate can be $0.54/kwh. CA taxes will be almost double the 2nd highest state. Free healthcare for everyone, including illegal alien immigrant violent criminals.

Gov. releasing inmates, defunding / slashing police forces, 3x the per capita welfare spending of the nation, sanctuary for illegal immigrant violent criminals, reparation bills coming, business-crushing regulations, huge secular departure of companies and individuals, and traffic/smog.

According to some of my legal friends and people who talk to city controllers, the forces that be will torch Prop. 13, double property taxes, and crush real estate values.

California has a 10% sales tax in many situations.

“California’s top rate is 13.3%, astronomical for a state…

In 2016, the top 1% paid 45.8% of the state income tax revenue while accounting for 23.1% of the personal income.

The top 10% paid 78% of the total tax revenues.

The bottom 80% contributed just 10.6%."

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#380

Post by asdff »

notherthrowaway wrote: post #154

I think people are asking the wrong questions. We know that people moving back in with their parents is up about 3 million due to COVID [1]. It would follow that studio apartments are the mostly likely to be rented by those same young people, thus the demand has dried up. The question we aren't asking is, what happens when the economy recovers and these people move out of their parent's homes? Will they go back to th…

I think the answer to that question depends entirely on the employer. While some are making waves becoming remote companies, the vast majority are chomping at the bit to get butts in seats. I know several people who have been called back in, to sit in an enclosed office in their cubicle for 8 hours a day with their mask on doing the same exact task that could be accomplished on their laptop at home.

Why? No reason at all beyond managers wanting to see people physically in the office working. The management class rarely takes a page from science and reason when making decisions, gut feelings are king, and the gut feeling in many boardrooms right now is that people are slacking off working from home. Whether that is true or not in real world productivity isn't considered. That's why I think not much will change ultimately once things do eventually return to normal, whenever that may be. People will go right back to living conveniently to work.

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