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The ballooning money supply may be the key to unlocking inflation in the U.S.

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Re: The ballooning money supply may be the key to unlocking inflation in the U.S.

#91
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Food, shelter and transportation aren't included in the CPI. Yet those things are essential for quality of life. Inflation is the reason you can't own a house and support a family on a single income anymore. There are a couple other indexes out there that track total cost of living that are pushing ~10% per year inflation right now.

> Food, shelter and transportation aren't included in the CPI. This is wrong. Food, shelter, and transportation are all included in the basket used to compute CPI. [0] > The CPI represents all goods and services purchased for consumption by the reference population (U or W). BLS has classified all expenditure items into more than 200 categories, arranged into eight major groups (food and beverages, housing, apparel,…

From your [0]:

> 9. Is the CPI a cost-of-living index? ... > Both the CPI and a cost-of-living index would reflect changes in the prices of goods and services, such as food and clothing that are directly purchased in the marketplace; but a complete cost-of-living index would go beyond this role to also take into account changes in other governmental or environmental factors that affect consumers' well-being. It is very difficult to determine the proper treatment of public goods, such as safety and education, and other broad concerns, such as health, water quality, and crime, that would constitute a complete cost-of-living framework. Since the CPI does not attempt to quantify all the factors that affect the cost-of-living, it is sometimes termed a conditional cost-of-living index.

Public services are being gutted in the US. I think this explains why cost of living indexes can be north of 10% while the CPI is It doesn’t explain how groceries, rent, medical care and education costs have all skyrocketed without raising the CPI. My guess is that people are spending less than they used to on things like recreation and apparel, due to lack of money.

Re: The ballooning money supply may be the key to unlocking inflation in the U.S.

#92

Is anyone (who is paid/lives in the US) concerned about the future value of USD? A lot of my friends are saying I should be investing in cryptocurrencies for future safety, but I don't see those as very stable, so I'm hesitant to put my savings into it.

If you are concerned about USD buy international index funds.

Cryptocurrencies are gambling. I would not go for that.

Re: The ballooning money supply may be the key to unlocking inflation in the U.S.

#93
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Food, shelter and transportation aren't included in the CPI. Yet those things are essential for quality of life. Inflation is the reason you can't own a house and support a family on a single income anymore. There are a couple other indexes out there that track total cost of living that are pushing ~10% per year inflation right now.

> Food, shelter and transportation aren't included in the CPI. This is wrong. Food, shelter, and transportation are all included in the basket used to compute CPI. [0] > The CPI represents all goods and services purchased for consumption by the reference population (U or W). BLS has classified all expenditure items into more than 200 categories, arranged into eight major groups (food and beverages, housing, apparel,…

I should have been more specific. Certain rents are included, but house prices are not. Gasoline and bus fairs are included, but the cost of buying a car is not. And, various food items are seasonally adjusted in a favorable manner.

Over time, the index has changed in a manner that grossly underestimates the inflation the average person experiences.

Re: The ballooning money supply may be the key to unlocking inflation in the U.S.

#94
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well... it's Reddit.

Well, it's r/bitcoin which is arguably even worse.

I've never been to the subreddit, but then followed the link and regrettably read a few comments.

Re: The ballooning money supply may be the key to unlocking inflation in the U.S.

#95

The Fed is only creating bank reserves, which does not create more money. Therefore, the Fed has not been printing money. When the Fed buys assets (government bonds, Fannies, etc.) from a bank, the bank gets back 'bank reserves', which are just a number in the bank's Federal Reserve account somewhere. Those reserves can't be lent out. The bank can make no change to its lending, because it's a one-to-one swap (highly…

Functionally there's little to no difference between what you've described and what is colloquially known as "money printing". You've essentially just redefined "money" to include U.S. treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and then stated that it's just an asset swap and not money printing.

You can use whatever terminology you want, but at the end of the day, the Federal Reserve is creating money out of thin air and using it to buy real assets. You can argue that the effect of this is not as dramatic as printing money to buy a bunch of luxury condos or sports cars, but at that point we're just debating the degree of influence. The whole point of Fed money printing is to influence the economy, so if it didn't anticipate any difference, it wouldn't be doing it.

Re: The ballooning money supply may be the key to unlocking inflation in the U.S.

#96
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because what's the alternative to US treasuries? Everything else in the world is either more unstable or offering zero yield.

Gold?

For all you know the gold price can halve if there is an economic recovery sooner than expected. The same drastic movement (either way) is not going to happen to US bonds.

Re: The ballooning money supply may be the key to unlocking inflation in the U.S.

#97
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, for stocks, the P/E ratio is also extraordinarily high, so it's not inflation there. At least not mostly. The stock market is just overvalued and there will be a correction at some point in the future.

For t -> ∞, a prediction that the stock market will correct in the future will always hold true. The question is, will it correct to levels below its current ones? If you have an answer to that, you can make a lot of money.

I'm not gonna bet against the fed. Im not going to bet against politicians protecting retirement accounts and personal homes. I've got 30 more years until I get out of the market, might as well hedge against the dollar, only take out a bit to get a down payment on a home in a nice area, and try to catch the capitalist wave.

If you stayed in through 2008 till now, you'd be doing perfectly fine. If you had to take out money right after the collapse, ouch.

Ultimately your portfolio risk should reflect the cash needs of your age/health/lifestyle in the context of the economics of the time. However, we are in uncharted waters.

Re: The ballooning money supply may be the key to unlocking inflation in the U.S.

#98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, for stocks, the P/E ratio is also extraordinarily high, so it's not inflation there. At least not mostly. The stock market is just overvalued and there will be a correction at some point in the future.

I am just wondering if the PE ratio became extraordinarily high because high growth tech companies now are a major part of all of the large indices. Did you ever think about that?

That's definitely the cause of it, but it doesn't make sense to me. Once you're on S&P 500, how much growth can you realistically do? I don't see why investors don't make Google & Apple pay dividends.

Re: The ballooning money supply may be the key to unlocking inflation in the U.S.

#99

The Fed is only creating bank reserves, which does not create more money. Therefore, the Fed has not been printing money. When the Fed buys assets (government bonds, Fannies, etc.) from a bank, the bank gets back 'bank reserves', which are just a number in the bank's Federal Reserve account somewhere. Those reserves can't be lent out. The bank can make no change to its lending, because it's a one-to-one swap (highly…

Isn't the FED at the very least creating money by buying treasuries above the market value?

If the FED weren't buying, banks would have to bid the market to sell, lowering the price.

Kinda makes the banks whole and also makes the Treasury market higher, lowering rates for the ever increasing US deficit.

Re: The ballooning money supply may be the key to unlocking inflation in the U.S.

#100
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, maybe a gallon of milk did not increase that much. But did you see prices for houses? for education? for cars? for entertainment? even high-end electronics? Yes, for all those categories there are other (even more important) factors than inflation, but overall, we see a growth much larger than CPI

All the things you enumerated are included in the fed's calculation of CPI. Are you arguing their weightings are bad?

The missing something in CPI is the volatility or perception of volatility of income, which makes everything more expensive if you have to act more conservatively than people did in decades past.

You feel certain regions of the country are far outpacing others in economic growth and high paying jobs, you feel healthcare costs can and will cause issues for you in the future, you feel automation could come after you. So you bid up housing in areas you feel have higher probabilities of economic growth so you have access to more jobs, in case you get laid off, and you save more since if you get laid off, you have to spend a lot more for healthcare.

You delay having kids because maybe before it felt like things would fall into place, but now you have access to data and decide it's wiser to wait to gather more resources before trying for relationships/kids, so it feels more "expensive" to start a family than in decades past.

But it's probably impossible to reflect all of that in a number.

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