San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S. • Hacker News Board

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#51

Post by burlesona » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 2:19 PM UTC

I would say the city being “closed” is the major driver. Among my group of ~40 coworkers, about 30 (including me) have left the city. As far as I know all but one were renting.

Everyone who left gave the following rationale:

- we can work remotely so move wherever or nomad now

- SF is not very fun during the pandemic

- WFH in my tiny apartment is much less enjoyable than when I was working in the office and didn’t spend much time in the apartment

- therefore I’m moving for a year or so until things fully reopen

Now I think the question is what does the eventual full reopening look like and how long does it take?

Many people will move back, because many office jobs will return, and many people love city life and the office work environment (including me).

But the longer things take, the more people get established elsewhere, and the more companies decide to make remote permanent and don’t reopen an office, the more I think this market reset in SF will be long-lasting.

As other posters have said it’s a welcome relief though. Prices are still very high, and new construction remains far from sufficient to keep up with demand.

(edit: typo)

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#52

Post by rel2thr » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 2:19 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #17

Is there any data on rent changes in Texas? A Bay Area school district employee told me that she has noticed a big increase in requests to transfer student records to Texas districts. But I don't know how widespread that is.

Austin house prices are up about 12% year over year

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#53

Post by chrisseaton » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 2:20 PM UTC

einpoklum wrote: post #35

The article says that a half-decent single-person apartment - one bedroom, one living room - costs $2,873 to rent in SF. To think that even in the midst of a pandemic these are the prices is patently insane. This is significantly above the median monthly wage where I live.

I think most single people live in shared homes in San Francisco, so living on your own would be a luxury and most people wouldn't be paying that much.

I've even heard of some people with roommates, which seems extraordinary to me for an adult to be doing that in a Western country.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#54

Post by asdfman123 » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 2:20 PM UTC

thethethethe wrote: post #50

mxcrossb wrote: post #26

> The figures underscore how the pandemic has roiled property markets and changed renter preferences. With companies allowing employees to work from home, people have fled cramped and costly urban areas in droves, seeking extra room in the suburbs or cheaper cities. I am skeptical. Yes a lot of Bay Area companies are allowing work from home for now, but are people really weighing that so heavily that they’re moving?…

Yes. I live in SF and I see people loading up moving vans in my neighborhood all of the time now, my neighbors in my row house moved to auburn, multiple houses are now up for sale, it used to be impossible to get a parking space but now it is not a problem anymore. Things have definitely changed

If I were living in SF and gone fully remote for the foreseeable future, I'd absolutely get out of my expensive apartment and (literally) head for the hills.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#55

Post by baskire » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 2:21 PM UTC

mxcrossb wrote: post #26

> The figures underscore how the pandemic has roiled property markets and changed renter preferences. With companies allowing employees to work from home, people have fled cramped and costly urban areas in droves, seeking extra room in the suburbs or cheaper cities. I am skeptical. Yes a lot of Bay Area companies are allowing work from home for now, but are people really weighing that so heavily that they’re moving?…

Saw friends of friends leave sf and together rent a mansion in Hawaii.

If the bars, clubs, gyms, and even beaches shut down why stay if you are renting at market rate. It’s literally cheaper to move your belongings into storage and move into a vacation home with friends.

Also most sf apartments don’t have office space for all the tenants.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#56

Post by burlesona » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 2:23 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #17

Is there any data on rent changes in Texas? A Bay Area school district employee told me that she has noticed a big increase in requests to transfer student records to Texas districts. But I don't know how widespread that is.

I don’t know about rents but single-family home sales and prices are surging.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#57

Post by conductr » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 2:23 PM UTC

mxcrossb wrote: post #26

> The figures underscore how the pandemic has roiled property markets and changed renter preferences. With companies allowing employees to work from home, people have fled cramped and costly urban areas in droves, seeking extra room in the suburbs or cheaper cities. I am skeptical. Yes a lot of Bay Area companies are allowing work from home for now, but are people really weighing that so heavily that they’re moving?…

> are people really weighing that so heavily that they’re moving?

Given region as a large portion of young/single professionals, I believe it. What you pay to move/break a lease is a fraction of what you’d save after a few months of “normal” rent. Or no rent if you’re going to stay with your parents. It will be relatively easy to move back when they need to, and prices will be better. This group has no deep local community dependancies (eg family, childcare, ete). and is still probably rather nomadic from their college days.

I personally live in Texas, lower COL, but I am tied into my local community due to family, owning my home, and general entrenchment type stuff that comes with age. Otherwise I’d have bailed in April for a rural or expat setting.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#58

Post by themark » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 2:24 PM UTC

eplanit wrote: post #32

themark wrote: post #2

Not surprised. I have been seeing a lot more SF city parking stickers on cars in San Diego.

I worry for San Diego. I moved here to escape the bay area, too. I figure there's only a couple or so years until this region gets wrecked by California politics, too. Then, it'll be time to finally move on back to America. I just want to escape before I suffer any loss on real estate investment.

I feel you. There is a clear choice in the race for Mayor.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#59

Post by cft » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 2:25 PM UTC

baskire wrote: post #55

mxcrossb wrote: post #26

> The figures underscore how the pandemic has roiled property markets and changed renter preferences. With companies allowing employees to work from home, people have fled cramped and costly urban areas in droves, seeking extra room in the suburbs or cheaper cities. I am skeptical. Yes a lot of Bay Area companies are allowing work from home for now, but are people really weighing that so heavily that they’re moving?…

Saw friends of friends leave sf and together rent a mansion in Hawaii. If the bars, clubs, gyms, and even beaches shut down why stay if you are renting at market rate. It’s literally cheaper to move your belongings into storage and move into a vacation home with friends. Also most sf apartments don’t have office space for all the tenants.

If there was no rent control, prices would drop even more. Firstly landlords are afraid to permanently lock down at a lower price, offering free months of rent instead. Secondly rent controlled tenants are afraid to lose their apartments, that are still below the market rates.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#60

Post by prpl » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 2:25 PM UTC

I bought a house in the east bay, walking distance to a BART station. We contemplated “cashing in” on a rent controlled 2 or 3 BR apartment but prices on those haven’t dropped quite as much, and we still wouldn’t likely have a yard.

We have 3 kids and we were in a rent controlled 2BR in the Richmond district, but we had no w/d and the landlord was increasingly hostile.

At the end of the day my mortgage is $4200/mo which is about what we would have paid for an okay 2BR, probably without a yard.

My wife does not work right now and a house in SF was out of reach. We did see one 850 sq ft house in Portola District sell for below 850k in the between May and September. Everything else under 900k is either 1BR, 650 sq ft 2BR, or a TIC.