San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S. • Hacker News Board

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#31

Post by jeffbee » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 2:10 PM UTC

simonw wrote: post #16

jeffbee wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rent is like a traffic jam. The market collapses on the margin. You don't need to remove 30% of the cars to reduce freeway congestion by 30%, and you don't need to remove 30% of the residents to lower asking rents by 30%, either.

I hadn't heard "You don't need to remove 30% of the cars to reduce freeway congestion by 30%" before, any chance you could elaborate?

Traffic jams are a catastrophe, not just in the qualitative sense but in the way that theoreticians mean: an abrupt shift from a desirable operating equilibrium to an undesirable equilibrium. That's why speed-flow curves are ⊃-shaped. Speeds are near maximum until a critical flow rate and then they collapse to zero after that one last car gets on the road.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#32

Post by eplanit » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 2:11 PM UTC

themark wrote: post #2

Not surprised. I have been seeing a lot more SF city parking stickers on cars in San Diego.

I worry for San Diego. I moved here to escape the bay area, too. I figure there's only a couple or so years until this region gets wrecked by California politics, too. Then, it'll be time to finally move on back to America. I just want to escape before I suffer any loss on real estate investment.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#33

Post by ISL » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 2:11 PM UTC

hansdieter1337 wrote: post #20

lazzlazzlazz wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "...Crater Up To..." hard to imagine a more awkward choice of words

Had to look up that word as a non-native speaker. Didn’t find anything but this article. Anyone ever heard of this term?

Yes.

When an airplane hits the ground, it leaves a crater. "To Crater" is to fall precipitously or crash. In this context, it is in the age-old tradition of financial journalism of selecting exaggerated descriptors of market movement.

"Pork bellies fry in early-market trading, fall 5%."

It is generally helpful to completely remove the descriptors and replace them with "increase" or "decrease".

"San Francisco Apartment Rents Decrease 31%"

That way, you can decide for yourself whether or not it is a big deal.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#34

Post by AnIdiotOnTheNet » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 2:12 PM UTC

hansdieter1337 wrote: post #20

lazzlazzlazz wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "...Crater Up To..." hard to imagine a more awkward choice of words

Had to look up that word as a non-native speaker. Didn’t find anything but this article. Anyone ever heard of this term?

Usually when we say something "cratered" we mean that it fell rapidly, as one might imagine a meteor would fall from space and impact the earth with enough force to produce a crater.

It doesn't get used very often in my experience.

As mentioned in another post, "crater up to" is a bizarre formation of words. "Rents fall by up to 31%" is perfectly understandable phrasing, but replacing "fall" with "crater" makes it sound very strange.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#35

Post by einpoklum » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 2:12 PM UTC

The article says that a half-decent single-person apartment - one bedroom, one living room - costs $2,873 to rent in SF.

To think that even in the midst of a pandemic these are the prices is patently insane. This is significantly above the median monthly wage where I live.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#36

Post by colanderman » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 2:12 PM UTC

hansdieter1337 wrote: post #20

lazzlazzlazz wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "...Crater Up To..." hard to imagine a more awkward choice of words

Had to look up that word as a non-native speaker. Didn’t find anything but this article. Anyone ever heard of this term?

"Crater up to" is not its own phrase. The title would be better written as:

"San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater, up to 31%"

meaning, the rents fell drastically, by as much as 31%.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#37

Post by sailingparrot » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 2:12 PM UTC

standardUser wrote: post #21

A good start, let's hope it continues. Rents are still roughly double what they were 15 years ago, when decent studios in central neighborhoods went for under $1000/mo.

US inflation over that period was 35%. So that means rent increased by ~50% in 15 years, this is way less than I imagined for SF.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#38

Post by jeffbee » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 2:14 PM UTC

mxcrossb wrote: post #26

> The figures underscore how the pandemic has roiled property markets and changed renter preferences. With companies allowing employees to work from home, people have fled cramped and costly urban areas in droves, seeking extra room in the suburbs or cheaper cities. I am skeptical. Yes a lot of Bay Area companies are allowing work from home for now, but are people really weighing that so heavily that they’re moving?…

Bay Area demographic process involves a pretty large net influx of people from abroad and an almost equally large domestic net outflow of people to other states. If you stop the former but the latter continues, housing pressure suddenly disappears.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#39

Post by issa » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 2:14 PM UTC

mxcrossb wrote: post #26

> The figures underscore how the pandemic has roiled property markets and changed renter preferences. With companies allowing employees to work from home, people have fled cramped and costly urban areas in droves, seeking extra room in the suburbs or cheaper cities. I am skeptical. Yes a lot of Bay Area companies are allowing work from home for now, but are people really weighing that so heavily that they’re moving?…

I would counter that proximity to work is a huge influence on where people decide to live. There are (or will be) bars and restaurants everywhere, which means if you can work from home, there is significantly less incentive to live in a small, overpriced apartment.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#40

Post by rsync » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 2:15 PM UTC

mxcrossb wrote: post #26

> The figures underscore how the pandemic has roiled property markets and changed renter preferences. With companies allowing employees to work from home, people have fled cramped and costly urban areas in droves, seeking extra room in the suburbs or cheaper cities. I am skeptical. Yes a lot of Bay Area companies are allowing work from home for now, but are people really weighing that so heavily that they’re moving?…

"I am skeptical. Yes a lot of Bay Area companies are allowing work from home for now, but are people really weighing that so heavily that they’re moving?"

It is the marginal buyer, not the entire population, that swings the price. It's the last few properties for sale that swing the price.

Someone downthread explained it very nicely:

"Rent is like a traffic jam. The market collapses on the margin. You don't need to remove 30% of the cars to reduce freeway congestion by 30%, and you don't need to remove 30% of the residents to lower asking rents by 30%, either."