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San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

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Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#22
post #16
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rent is like a traffic jam. The market collapses on the margin. You don't need to remove 30% of the cars to reduce freeway congestion by 30%, and you don't need to remove 30% of the residents to lower asking rents by 30%, either.

I hadn't heard "You don't need to remove 30% of the cars to reduce freeway congestion by 30%" before, any chance you could elaborate?

Traffic jams are a quite sudden occurrence; 1000 cars / hour is no problem, but 1100 cars / hour and the whole system can suddenly collapse. https://getpocket.com/explore/item/why-a-traffic-flow-sudden... is one source, I'm sure there's better ones out there.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#23
post #17

Is there any data on rent changes in Texas? A Bay Area school district employee told me that she has noticed a big increase in requests to transfer student records to Texas districts. But I don't know how widespread that is.

The events of the past 6mo have caused tons of people in places like NYC, SF, etc who were on the fence to cash out an move elsewhere.

Housing prices, local politics, just about everything is gonna suck real bad for the people in the destination locales because a bunch of people with more money than them are showing up and trying to tell them what to do.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#24
post #16
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rent is like a traffic jam. The market collapses on the margin. You don't need to remove 30% of the cars to reduce freeway congestion by 30%, and you don't need to remove 30% of the residents to lower asking rents by 30%, either.

I hadn't heard "You don't need to remove 30% of the cars to reduce freeway congestion by 30%" before, any chance you could elaborate?

e.g., slowing cars can increase average throughput.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queueing_theory

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#25

A good start, let's hope it continues. Rents are still roughly double what they were 15 years ago, when decent studios in central neighborhoods went for under $1000/mo.

Yeah it's better for everyone. The people who like the city life can enjoy it at much cheaper cost, the people who don't like it get to have good jobs that would otherwise have required relocation.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#26
> The figures underscore how the pandemic has roiled property markets and changed renter preferences. With companies allowing employees to work from home, people have fled cramped and costly urban areas in droves, seeking extra room in the suburbs or cheaper cities.

I am skeptical. Yes a lot of Bay Area companies are allowing work from home for now, but are people really weighing that so heavily that they’re moving? If we’re blaming the pandemic, maybe it’s that fewer people want to move to the city because they can’t enjoy it (bars, restaurants, etc)

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#28
post #16
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rent is like a traffic jam. The market collapses on the margin. You don't need to remove 30% of the cars to reduce freeway congestion by 30%, and you don't need to remove 30% of the residents to lower asking rents by 30%, either.

I hadn't heard "You don't need to remove 30% of the cars to reduce freeway congestion by 30%" before, any chance you could elaborate?

When you thread a needle through a hole: when the needle becomes approximately equal to the hole diameter it becomes much harder, but before then it's easy.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#29
post #4

Wayne, MI studio rents are down by 23%? First of all, I wonder if they mean Wayne County, MI, or actual Wayne, MI. If it's the former, that almost makes more sense because Wayne, MI has a total of 17,000 people. The only thing I can think of is that demand has cratered because car company employees took the time to relocate once their leases were up.

Downtown rents in Detroit were very, very high compared to the surrounding area because of workers desiring to live in a very small radius of the immediate downtown area primarily to be close to work and downtown amenities/restaurants.

QuickenLoans would be the biggest employer downtown right now, not the car companies, and other tech companies have been moving in as well. Rents were exacerbated by a shortage of apartment stock, homogeneous ownership of apartments (i.e. by Dan Gilbert), and lack of affordable parking in a city where cars are still required. Rents outside the downtown area can be almost half as much because of this, despite all still within a 10-20 minute drive.

Overall, I've seen most downtown rents drop by several hundred dollars, usually by maybe a fifth of the previous amount (which seems very close to the percentage mentioned). Outside of downtown, the drops have been MUCH less steep, if at all.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#30
post #17

Is there any data on rent changes in Texas? A Bay Area school district employee told me that she has noticed a big increase in requests to transfer student records to Texas districts. But I don't know how widespread that is.

Austin is pretty pricey by Texas standards and San Antonio is on it's way up. Property taxes in Texas are what may surprise you depending on where you are from. I used to live in the Seattle area and property taxes there are around 1/2 of what they are in Texas. Neither has a state income tax and both have around the same sales tax rate.
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