Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries • Hacker News Board

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#71

Post by Smutte » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 11:32 AM UTC

matsemann wrote: post #68

Smutte wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://imgur.com/a/sHq3gjp There you go. Data from official government agency. "Preliminary" and not full year since we're only in October 2020 now. https://scb.se/hitta-statistik/statistik-efter-amne/befolkni...

> There you go What am I looking at? What are you trying to show? Just posting a random graph is not really helpful.

I am trying to help you understand the actual death numbers that you were talking about in the thread I commented on (Sweden). Im not sure how data is reported to Euromomo, but sometimes its better to look at data with as few middlemen as possible.

Total (and monthly) deaths per 100k inhabitants, per Jan-Sep period each year. The bar-chart shows the "Total" row from the Excel. Both illustrations have descriptions in English

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#72

Post by 0xy » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 12:05 PM UTC

evgen wrote: post #66

0xy wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is not reporting accurate data, so I have no idea how you could possibly say definitively that China's numbers were less than the US on any basis. [1] [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-con...

We are saying that China's numbers are less than the US because if they were fucking up at a level even close to what the US is going through the evidence would be clearly visible. You cannot hide millions of dead. You can hide the bodies, but not the holes in the population and social structure that comes from losing this many people. So far your only evidence is a report that their case numbers were higher than rep…

There's evidence that deliveries of urns to cemeteries was substantially higher than reported death counts [1], as well as gigantic drops in active subscriber counts in China's telecom providers [2].

I also vehemently disagree "the evidence would be clearly visible". History is littered with genocides on a massive scale that were successfully covered up. We still don't know exactly how many people died in the Holocaust or Holodomor, for example (estimates vary by millions). So this claim that you cannot cover up deaths is clearly false.

It's also very likely the US is over-reporting numbers.

For example, studies have shown US death certificates have "major errors" the majority of the time [3], and several US states have counted unrelated deaths as "COVID" deaths, including Washington State (later partially corrected) [4].

I also disagree with your claim that evidence of China's data manipulation does not count because it's 'six months old', you can't wave away evidence like that.

[1] https://nationalpost.com/news/world/lines-of-urns-in-wuhan-p...

[2] https://www.developingtelecoms.com/telecom-business/operator...

[3] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/04/2...

[4] https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/...

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#73

Post by TheAdamAndChe » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 12:31 PM UTC

hef19898 wrote: post #55

threatripper wrote: post #37

This study only looks at all-cause mortality - which is reasonable once the epidemic is over. Is it over? I don't think so. Cases are rising quickly in Europe now that winter is coming. We should refrain from issuing judgement on the matter and comparing strategies of different countries until at least next spring when cases go down again in all countries. There may be some surprises coming in winter.

I guess reopening the whole EU over summer to save what was left of the tourism industry didn't necessarily help. Not saying that I am against having loosened restrictions, but maybe we loosened things a tad too much. Because after the summer vacations were over, everyone went back to normal. People returned to offices, children to school. At schools, measures were in place for the first two weeks. Since then, busine…

The original goal was to lower the curve so that hospitals wouldn't be overloaded. To that end, the lockdowns have served their purpose.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#74

Post by evgen » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 12:48 PM UTC

0xy wrote: post #72

evgen wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are saying that China's numbers are less than the US because if they were fucking up at a level even close to what the US is going through the evidence would be clearly visible. You cannot hide millions of dead. You can hide the bodies, but not the holes in the population and social structure that comes from losing this many people. So far your only evidence is a report that their case numbers were higher than rep…

There's evidence that deliveries of urns to cemeteries was substantially higher than reported death counts [1], as well as gigantic drops in active subscriber counts in China's telecom providers [2]. I also vehemently disagree "the evidence would be clearly visible". History is littered with genocides on a massive scale that were successfully covered up. We still don't know exactly how many people died in the Holocau…

A single claim about a delivery of urns but nothing reported after about those urns being used. They could easily have been ordered in anticipation of things going pear-shaped and then re-sold when the death rate remained stable. As for the telcom subscriber number, the very article itself posits a more rational expanation -- migrants who would normally have a second cell plan for their current work city not getting these during the economic downturn.

It looks like you are still grasping at straws and lacking evidence for the claims being made.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#75

Post by Harvesterify » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 12:57 PM UTC

Smutte wrote: post #71

matsemann wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There you go What am I looking at? What are you trying to show? Just posting a random graph is not really helpful.

I am trying to help you understand the actual death numbers that you were talking about in the thread I commented on (Sweden). Im not sure how data is reported to Euromomo, but sometimes its better to look at data with as few middlemen as possible. Total (and monthly) deaths per 100k inhabitants, per Jan-Sep period each year. The bar-chart shows the "Total" row from the Excel. Both illustrations have descriptions in…

This is a description of your graph, not an explanation.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#76

Post by tom_mellior » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 1:11 PM UTC

Smutte wrote: post #67

matsemann wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And then see what? https://i.imgur.com/4wNdK1M.png

https://imgur.com/a/sHq3gjp There you go. Data from official government agency. "Preliminary" and not full year since we're only in October 2020 now. https://scb.se/hitta-statistik/statistik-efter-amne/befolkni...

Not sure what you're trying to show, but your screenshot is of a table showing very high excess mortality in Sweden in April. The Euromomo graphs show very high excess mortality in Sweden in April. I got the impression that you were trying to contradict something, but the data you post agree with the other data, so...?

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#77

Post by gnusty_gnurc » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 1:33 PM UTC

evgen wrote: post #65

nickff wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China was trucking in loads of urns every day that were more than ten times larger then their reported death rates; doesn't that count as visible evidence?

Citation needed. This is the first I have heard of this and given how desperately the current administration wants to pin anything COVID-related on to China I think that this would have been widely publicized if it were actually true.

China did originate the virus as far as anyone can tell, they were not forthright with evidence, didn’t shut down travel globally and they seemed to push malign influence through the WHO.

It’s not hard to see they have lots of blame and that has nothing to do with the US administration.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#78

Post by pcrh » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 1:52 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #69

pcrh wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Brazilian city of Manaus is an example of where restrictions were ignored by ~50% of the population (based on mobile phone data), resulting in approximately 66% of people becoming infected before herd immunity started to have an impact [0]. With an estimated infection:fatality rate for the US at ~0.5% (all ages) this would mean nearly 1.2 million deaths in the US. [0] COVID-19 herd immunity in the Brazilian Amazo…

Ok, but OP said 10-20x higher, so with the current deaths at ~250,000, that would be 2.5M to 5M deaths. And, I wouldn’t necessarily extrapolate what happened in one city to what would happen across an entire country. So yeah, more deaths, no doubt. But 10-20x more? Seems unsupported.

2.5 million is only 2.08 X 1.2 million. In situations such as this, the order of magnitude is often the best one can estimate.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#79

Post by tatersolid » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 1:53 PM UTC

m0zg wrote: post #56

threatripper wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's dumb to do this analysis now, when we're in the _middle_ of the epidemic. Correct. Mortality doesn't say very much now. The true IFR would be a better indicator but since testing availability is very inconsistent it is hard to compare the number of infected across countries or time. The mortality numbers are also inconsistent in many places (which is why we looked at all-cause mortality in the first place). >…

> This is plainly wrong. At a minimum, this is not "plainly" wrong: there's no vaccine against any other coronavirus, and vaccine against the flu (next most fatal thing on the table) is not great. Also, a vaccine does not prevent _infection_. It merely gives your body antibodies to deal with it when you get it. Sometimes those antibodies work, sometimes they do not. The initial estimates for C19 vaccines seem to put…

> The initial estimates for C19 vaccines seem to put it at 50% effectiveness.

Even at 50% effectiveness, a vaccine would drive R(t) well below 1.0 and end the pandemic fairly quickly.

https://rt.live

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#80

Post by Smutte » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 2:28 PM UTC

Harvesterify wrote: post #75

Smutte wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am trying to help you understand the actual death numbers that you were talking about in the thread I commented on (Sweden). Im not sure how data is reported to Euromomo, but sometimes its better to look at data with as few middlemen as possible. Total (and monthly) deaths per 100k inhabitants, per Jan-Sep period each year. The bar-chart shows the "Total" row from the Excel. Both illustrations have descriptions in…

This is a description of your graph, not an explanation.

Not sure what you are on about. It is an explanation of what he is looking at.

Do you need help interpreting the data and graph given previous conversation? The height of the bars represent the number of deaths over different years and the bars are basically same height. I.e. considering all deaths, covid and actions taken (no lockdown but more distancing), no more than usual have died. Especially considering last year was a bit lower and therefore likely some old people who didnt die last year unfortunately did so this year.