51–60 of 60 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> extremely high survival rate COVID-19 is (so far) about 10x-20x deadlier than the common flu which we have vaccines for and approaching about half of the total death toll of the 1918 flu which is considered the deadliest in modern history. What is your basis for "extremely high survival rate"?
> approaching about half of the total death toll of the 1918 flu Approaching half of 17-50 million dead?
The list of companies announcing permanent remote work policy changes grows by the week. The hope for a quick return to normal continues to fade into 2021. On-site will certainly make a big comeback at some point and the Economist will no doubt write about it breathlessly. But things have changed and the future is not going to look like the past. The economy will redistribute prices and labor and there will eventuall…
100% of corporate policies should be viewed as ending with an implicit "for now."
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It's looking more and more like this deadly virus is going to be part of our lives for months or years to come, if not decades I don't understand this attitude. No, we will go back to normal. This cannot continue forever. We cannot live the rest of our lives in fear. This is not how we evolved and I'm honestly sick of it. There is growing evidence that there is immunity out there beyond antibodies; including memory…
Agreed, we are living through a mass hysteria event. The shared delusion is that through moral acts one can somehow avoid exposure to an endemic human coronavirus.
You spelled "wear a mask and avoid crowds" wrong.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It's looking more and more like this deadly virus is going to be part of our lives for months or years to come, if not decades I don't understand this attitude. No, we will go back to normal. This cannot continue forever. We cannot live the rest of our lives in fear. This is not how we evolved and I'm honestly sick of it. There is growing evidence that there is immunity out there beyond antibodies; including memory…
> I don't understand this attitude. No, we will go back to normal. This cannot continue forever. We cannot live the rest of our lives in fear. This is not how we evolved and I'm honestly sick of it. It's not about living in fear, it's about not catching the virus. The facts are that COVID-19 is still out there actively infecting people, deaths are still climbing at more or less a steady rate, and it doesn't really ca…
As are many other viruses.
Many a school has opened under the rationale of "we can't just hide from it forever", only to go into shutdown again because of the inevitable outbreak that occurs when a bunch of kids are packed like sardines into a hallway or classroom environment.
It's now well established that schools are not significant drivers of infections. Which is actually rather surprising; it's a reasonable hypothesis that lots of kids would get infected and then pass it to vulnerable family members. But the results from schools around the world show that that's not happening to any significant degree.
It is far better to be overly cautious than not cautious enough in such a case, even if it comes at the expense of inconvenience.
You can't make that general statement without quantifying the harms on both sides. Denying education and socialization to children, throwing millions of people out of work, and telling people they can't visit family or friends for an indefinite duration goes well beyond "inconvenience".
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>this deadly virus the deadly virus with the extremely high survival rate? >maybe we are going to have to change our definition of normal no we won't. things returned to normal after much more serious pandemics. people are already realizing the risks of this virus were oversold and starting to move on.
I don't think people were ever arguing that the virus is particularly deadly. Like ~2% death rate is really really high for a flu but it's not the black plague or anything. If you're a young-ish healthy adult with a normal immune system then (statistically speaking) quarantine likely didn't benefit you at all. The thing that makes COVID novel is that it's extremely contagious. Your part in quarantining is not spreadi…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> extremely high survival rate COVID-19 is (so far) about 10x-20x deadlier than the common flu which we have vaccines for and approaching about half of the total death toll of the 1918 flu which is considered the deadliest in modern history. What is your basis for "extremely high survival rate"?
I guess people see ~2% death rate and assume that's low?
https://web.archive.org/web/20201012172005if_/https://www.ec...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think people were ever arguing that the virus is particularly deadly. Like ~2% death rate is really really high for a flu but it's not the black plague or anything. If you're a young-ish healthy adult with a normal immune system then (statistically speaking) quarantine likely didn't benefit you at all. The thing that makes COVID novel is that it's extremely contagious. Your part in quarantining is not spreadi…
It's not 2%. The WHO currently pegs IFR at 0.5-1%, and that's heavily tilted towards known risk groups, particularly the elderly. https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/estimating...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
This "return to normal" narrative is starting to make less and less sense to me. It presupposes that there is this one special, immutable state called Normal defined as "exactly as life was right before the pandemic", and that we have to somehow get back to precisely that state. It's looking more and more like this deadly virus is going to be part of our lives for months or years to come, if not decades. So, instead…
> It's looking more and more like this deadly virus is going to be part of our lives for months or years to come, if not decades I don't understand this attitude. No, we will go back to normal. This cannot continue forever. We cannot live the rest of our lives in fear. This is not how we evolved and I'm honestly sick of it. There is growing evidence that there is immunity out there beyond antibodies; including memory…
Well no actually. We'll look back on this as a time of mass stupidity, selfishness, racist/classist politics.
Had Trump just followed the Bush/Cheney pandemic plan, and listened to the CDC, before they were all threatened with termination. We could have easily got control of this back in January, instead we decided that the virus was a hoax, or just like the flu, or was easily handled, etc. So we are now stuck in this yo-yo pattern.
We semi lock down, everyone gets tired of wearing masks and limiting contact the state opens up; the cases flare up, the hospitals start to fill and the state semi-lock down again. Wash, rinse, repeat.
20% of the cases are severe, and 5% are critical, if we follow your plan and just open things up, hospitals quickly get overwhelmed. Mississippi has 10,000 hospital beds for 3 Million citizens, in July when things were good Mississippi almost ran out of ICU beds, and were quickly running out of beds (1).
I would like to see your plan for developing herd immunity quickly, which for COVID is close 80% infected and hopefully immune. When you talk abut herd immunity I'm assuming you want it to happen quickly because we are on a slow path to herd immunity. The only way to herd immunity quickly would be to remove all restrictions, no masks, no social distancing, no restriction of gathering size, back to normal.
For Mississippi, only 10K hospital beds for 3 Million people. For herd immunity, 2.4 Million people will get infected, 480,000 will require hospitalization. With all restriction removed we should see a similar pattern of infections like we do with the flu. So the majority of cases will happen in Dec, Jan, the peak in Feb, and Mar, the breakdown is about Dec (20%), Jan(20%), Feb(40%), Mar(20%) The average COVID hospital stay is 3 weeks(2), for young people it's actually longer than for old people.
In December we'll see 96,000 cases needing hospitalization, give or take, 10X the number of beds, and those cases will be there for 3/4 of the month which means for the rest of the herd immunity event about 400,000 people won't be hospitalized. What do you think happens to the death rate when people need to be in the hospital for 3 weeks don't go to the hospital? Yeah, they die. What do you think happens to households that have COVID patients who should be in the hospital but can't go to the hospital.
Once hospitals get overwhelmed the death rate will skyrocket, about 13% of Mississippi's population will die to achieve quick herd immunity, kind of looks like the Spanish flu numbers doesn't it? Frankly we'd be better off to not admit anyone who has COVID, at lease the hospitals would still be able to function for normal issues.
Let's not forget about the flu, because that will be raging at the same time, I bet getting the flu and COVID at the same will be really bad, so how many people who get mild flu and mild COVID will require hospitalization, but it won't really matter because there won't be any room anyway.
Now lets imagine this event playing out all across the country, that will be mass hysteria.
(1)https://www.modernhealthcare.com/hospitals/mississippis-five...
(2)https://www.kpcnews.com/covid-19/article_8ab408ad-8fb0-5f74-...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
This "return to normal" narrative is starting to make less and less sense to me. It presupposes that there is this one special, immutable state called Normal defined as "exactly as life was right before the pandemic", and that we have to somehow get back to precisely that state. It's looking more and more like this deadly virus is going to be part of our lives for months or years to come, if not decades. So, instead…
> It's looking more and more like this deadly virus is going to be part of our lives for months or years to come, if not decades I don't understand this attitude. No, we will go back to normal. This cannot continue forever. We cannot live the rest of our lives in fear. This is not how we evolved and I'm honestly sick of it. There is growing evidence that there is immunity out there beyond antibodies; including memory…
Well no actually. We'll look back on this as a time of mass stupidity, selfishness, racist/classist politics.
Had Trump just followed the Bush/Cheney pandemic plan, and listened to the CDC, before they were all threatened with termination. We could have easily got control of this back in January, instead we decided that the virus was a hoax, or just like the flu, or was easily handled, etc. So we are now stuck in this yo-yo pattern.
We semi lock down, everyone gets tired of wearing masks and limiting contact the state opens up; the cases flare up, the hospitals start to fill and the state semi-lock down again. Wash, rinse, repeat.
15% of the cases are severe, and 5% are critical, 20% requiring hospitalization, if we follow your plan and just open things up, hospitals quickly get overwhelmed. Mississippi has 10,000 hospital beds for 3 Million citizens, in July when things were good Mississippi almost ran out of ICU beds, and were quickly running out of beds (1).
I would like to see your plan for developing herd immunity quickly, which for COVID is close 80% infected and hopefully immune. When you talk abut herd immunity I'm assuming you want it to happen quickly because we are on a slow path to herd immunity. The only way to herd immunity quickly would be to remove all restrictions, no masks, no social distancing, no restriction of gathering size, back to normal.
For Mississippi, only 10K hospital beds for 3 Million people. For herd immunity, 2.4 Million people will get infected, 480,000 will require hospitalization. With all restriction removed we should see a similar pattern of infections like we do with the flu. So the majority of cases will happen in Dec, Jan, the peak in Feb, and Mar, the breakdown is about Dec (20%), Jan(20%), Feb(40%), Mar(20%) The average COVID hospital stay is 3 weeks(2), for young people it's actually longer than for old people.
In December we'll see 96,000 cases needing hospitalization, give or take, 10X the number of beds, and those cases will be there for 3/4 of the month which means for the rest of the herd immunity event about 400,000 people won't be hospitalized. What do you think happens to the death rate when people need to be in the hospital for 3 weeks don't go to the hospital? Yeah, they die. What do you think happens to households that have COVID patients who should be in the hospital but can't go to the hospital.
Once hospitals get overwhelmed the death rate will skyrocket, about 13% of Mississippi's population will die to achieve quick herd immunity, kind of looks like the Spanish flu numbers doesn't it? Frankly we'd be better off to not admit anyone who has COVID, at lease the hospitals would still be able to function for normal issues.
Let's not forget about the flu, because that will be raging at the same time, I bet getting the flu and COVID at the same will be really bad, so how many people who get mild flu and mild COVID will require hospitalization, but it won't really matter because there won't be any room anyway.
Now lets imagine this event playing out all across the country, that will be mass hysteria.
(1)https://www.modernhealthcare.com/hospitals/mississippis-five...
(2)https://www.kpcnews.com/covid-19/article_8ab408ad-8fb0-5f74-...