Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Zoom and Gloom

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

31–40 of 60 posts

Re: Zoom and Gloom

#31

Post by djsumdog »

ryandrake wrote: post #26
dougmwne wrote: post #9

The list of companies announcing permanent remote work policy changes grows by the week. The hope for a quick return to normal continues to fade into 2021. On-site will certainly make a big comeback at some point and the Economist will no doubt write about it breathlessly. But things have changed and the future is not going to look like the past. The economy will redistribute prices and labor and there will eventuall…

This "return to normal" narrative is starting to make less and less sense to me. It presupposes that there is this one special, immutable state called Normal defined as "exactly as life was right before the pandemic", and that we have to somehow get back to precisely that state. It's looking more and more like this deadly virus is going to be part of our lives for months or years to come, if not decades. So, instead…

> It's looking more and more like this deadly virus is going to be part of our lives for months or years to come, if not decades

I don't understand this attitude. No, we will go back to normal. This cannot continue forever. We cannot live the rest of our lives in fear. This is not how we evolved and I'm honestly sick of it.

There is growing evidence that there is immunity out there beyond antibodies; including memory T-cells. It's likely we'll be fine long before a vaccine is produced, through a combination of herd immunity and just better therapeutics (there are some big studies on inhaled steroids right now that are promising).

Mississippi, Florida and other states are starting to go back to normal without any increase in fatalities (and don't go on about cases, because there is no distinction between people who test positive and people who test positive because they've actually been sick). Fatalities are going down across the board. Exponential growth does not go on forever. It ends.

Things should have been back to normal months ago. All these lockdowns have just delayed the inevitable. When this is over and we can prune all the data, I expect to see the same fatality rates between countries that did and didn't lock down, excluding places like NYC, northern Italy, Michigan and other places where we put all the elderly people together.

In 2030, we'll look back at this as a time of overreaction and mass hysteria.

Re: Zoom and Gloom

#32

Post by throwmeaway_pls »

djsumdog wrote: post #31
ryandrake wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This "return to normal" narrative is starting to make less and less sense to me. It presupposes that there is this one special, immutable state called Normal defined as "exactly as life was right before the pandemic", and that we have to somehow get back to precisely that state. It's looking more and more like this deadly virus is going to be part of our lives for months or years to come, if not decades. So, instead…

> It's looking more and more like this deadly virus is going to be part of our lives for months or years to come, if not decades I don't understand this attitude. No, we will go back to normal. This cannot continue forever. We cannot live the rest of our lives in fear. This is not how we evolved and I'm honestly sick of it. There is growing evidence that there is immunity out there beyond antibodies; including memory…

Agreed, we are living through a mass hysteria event. The shared delusion is that through moral acts one can somehow avoid exposure to an endemic human coronavirus.

Re: Zoom and Gloom

#33

Post by 10000truths »

djsumdog wrote: post #31
ryandrake wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This "return to normal" narrative is starting to make less and less sense to me. It presupposes that there is this one special, immutable state called Normal defined as "exactly as life was right before the pandemic", and that we have to somehow get back to precisely that state. It's looking more and more like this deadly virus is going to be part of our lives for months or years to come, if not decades. So, instead…

> It's looking more and more like this deadly virus is going to be part of our lives for months or years to come, if not decades I don't understand this attitude. No, we will go back to normal. This cannot continue forever. We cannot live the rest of our lives in fear. This is not how we evolved and I'm honestly sick of it. There is growing evidence that there is immunity out there beyond antibodies; including memory…

> I don't understand this attitude. No, we will go back to normal. This cannot continue forever. We cannot live the rest of our lives in fear. This is not how we evolved and I'm honestly sick of it.

It's not about living in fear, it's about not catching the virus. The facts are that COVID-19 is still out there actively infecting people, deaths are still climbing at more or less a steady rate, and it doesn't really care about how you or anyone else feels about it. Many a school has opened under the rationale of "we can't just hide from it forever", only to go into shutdown again because of the inevitable outbreak that occurs when a bunch of kids are packed like sardines into a hallway or classroom environment.

> Mississippi, Florida and other states are starting to go back to normal without any increase in fatalities (and don't go on about cases, because there is no distinction between people who test positive and people who test positive because they've actually been sick). Fatalities are going down across the board. Exponential growth does not go on forever. It ends.

Just because COVID-19 isn't immediately fatal doesn't make it harmless. What are the rates of reinfection, and how does that impact a patient? What are the chronic effects of being infected, if any? You may have a cavalier attitude about the virus's effects, but plenty others (including the elderly, infants, the immunocompromised, etc.) do not, and the virus doesn't discriminate between who cares about it and who doesn't. It is far better to be overly cautious than not cautious enough in such a case, even if it comes at the expense of inconvenience.

Re: Zoom and Gloom

#34

Post by lloeki »

kelnos wrote: post #20

I feel like most surveys on this topic are not going to be a reflection of reality. People are tired of being at home for a variety of reasons, including child-care difficulties and their inability to do much/any socializing outside the home, plus added COVID-related friction when doing normal chores like grocery trips. These stress points make people associate these unrelated negative things with "working from home"…

Sample of one.

I’ve been working remotely at my current job for a little bit shy of two years. The difference before and since lockdown is crazy: the company definitely got more remote friendly, but the external context weighs heavily.

So to sum up:

Situation A: I work remotely and things are fine, even though the company isn’t the best at remote (but working in it)

VS, later

Situation B: I work remotely, remote things are way better, yet COVID context creates wildly underestimated pressure pervasively

Take what you want out of this but I made up my mind.

Re: Zoom and Gloom

#35

Post by ryandrake »

10000truths wrote: post #33
djsumdog wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's looking more and more like this deadly virus is going to be part of our lives for months or years to come, if not decades I don't understand this attitude. No, we will go back to normal. This cannot continue forever. We cannot live the rest of our lives in fear. This is not how we evolved and I'm honestly sick of it. There is growing evidence that there is immunity out there beyond antibodies; including memory…

> I don't understand this attitude. No, we will go back to normal. This cannot continue forever. We cannot live the rest of our lives in fear. This is not how we evolved and I'm honestly sick of it. It's not about living in fear, it's about not catching the virus. The facts are that COVID-19 is still out there actively infecting people, deaths are still climbing at more or less a steady rate, and it doesn't really ca…

It remains to be seen whether I'm right or djsumdog is right, but one thing is for sure: Nature doesn't care what we feel or think. The virus is not going to go away just because humanity is bored of it, or unhappy with it, or because we just have this desire to go back to some nostalgic definition of normal. Nature doesn't respond to a macho "I'm not afraid" attitude.

We see this again and again with the re-openings (and then the inevitable follow-up re-closings). When the re-openings happen based on clear, measurable criteria being met, they have been more successful, but still not 100% successful. When they are based on this vague feeling of "well, we have to get back to normal some time so why not now?" then hospitalizations go up, deaths go up, and everyone goes "surprised pikachu" and businesses have to close again. When we look back, the proof will be in the pudding, and I believe we will find that the outbreak spikes are strongly correlated with repeated efforts to re-open too soon.

Re: Zoom and Gloom

#36

Post by grillvogel »

ryandrake wrote: post #26
dougmwne wrote: post #9

The list of companies announcing permanent remote work policy changes grows by the week. The hope for a quick return to normal continues to fade into 2021. On-site will certainly make a big comeback at some point and the Economist will no doubt write about it breathlessly. But things have changed and the future is not going to look like the past. The economy will redistribute prices and labor and there will eventuall…

This "return to normal" narrative is starting to make less and less sense to me. It presupposes that there is this one special, immutable state called Normal defined as "exactly as life was right before the pandemic", and that we have to somehow get back to precisely that state. It's looking more and more like this deadly virus is going to be part of our lives for months or years to come, if not decades. So, instead…

>this deadly virus

the deadly virus with the extremely high survival rate?

>maybe we are going to have to change our definition of normal

no we won't. things returned to normal after much more serious pandemics. people are already realizing the risks of this virus were oversold and starting to move on.

Re: Zoom and Gloom

#37

Post by staplers »

grillvogel wrote: post #36
ryandrake wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This "return to normal" narrative is starting to make less and less sense to me. It presupposes that there is this one special, immutable state called Normal defined as "exactly as life was right before the pandemic", and that we have to somehow get back to precisely that state. It's looking more and more like this deadly virus is going to be part of our lives for months or years to come, if not decades. So, instead…

>this deadly virus the deadly virus with the extremely high survival rate? >maybe we are going to have to change our definition of normal no we won't. things returned to normal after much more serious pandemics. people are already realizing the risks of this virus were oversold and starting to move on.

> extremely high survival rate

COVID-19 is (so far) about 10x-20x deadlier than the common flu which we have vaccines for and approaching about half of the total death toll of the 1918 flu which is considered the deadliest in modern history.

What is your basis for "extremely high survival rate"?

Re: Zoom and Gloom

#38

Post by Spivak »

grillvogel wrote: post #36
ryandrake wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This "return to normal" narrative is starting to make less and less sense to me. It presupposes that there is this one special, immutable state called Normal defined as "exactly as life was right before the pandemic", and that we have to somehow get back to precisely that state. It's looking more and more like this deadly virus is going to be part of our lives for months or years to come, if not decades. So, instead…

>this deadly virus the deadly virus with the extremely high survival rate? >maybe we are going to have to change our definition of normal no we won't. things returned to normal after much more serious pandemics. people are already realizing the risks of this virus were oversold and starting to move on.

I don't think people were ever arguing that the virus is particularly deadly. Like ~2% death rate is really really high for a flu but it's not the black plague or anything. If you're a young-ish healthy adult with a normal immune system then (statistically speaking) quarantine likely didn't benefit you at all.

The thing that makes COVID novel is that it's extremely contagious. Your part in quarantining is not spreading it to the more vulnerable/unlucky people in your life. Because a 2% death rate in a country of 300 million people is still 6 million dead in an entirely preventable way.

Re: Zoom and Gloom

#39

Post by pbronez »

lloeki wrote: post #34
kelnos wrote: post #20

I feel like most surveys on this topic are not going to be a reflection of reality. People are tired of being at home for a variety of reasons, including child-care difficulties and their inability to do much/any socializing outside the home, plus added COVID-related friction when doing normal chores like grocery trips. These stress points make people associate these unrelated negative things with "working from home"…

Sample of one. I’ve been working remotely at my current job for a little bit shy of two years. The difference before and since lockdown is crazy: the company definitely got more remote friendly, but the external context weighs heavily. So to sum up: Situation A: I work remotely and things are fine, even though the company isn’t the best at remote (but working in it) VS, later Situation B: I work remotely, remote thin…

Agree. Everything is terrible now, but I’m optimistic it will lead to more remote-friendly policies going forward. I’m fairly confident my team would function best with everyone in the office two days per week and individual choices about where to work the rest of the time.

Re: Zoom and Gloom

#40

Post by ardy42 »

10000truths wrote: post #33
djsumdog wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's looking more and more like this deadly virus is going to be part of our lives for months or years to come, if not decades I don't understand this attitude. No, we will go back to normal. This cannot continue forever. We cannot live the rest of our lives in fear. This is not how we evolved and I'm honestly sick of it. There is growing evidence that there is immunity out there beyond antibodies; including memory…

> I don't understand this attitude. No, we will go back to normal. This cannot continue forever. We cannot live the rest of our lives in fear. This is not how we evolved and I'm honestly sick of it. It's not about living in fear, it's about not catching the virus. The facts are that COVID-19 is still out there actively infecting people, deaths are still climbing at more or less a steady rate, and it doesn't really ca…

Also, who's getting infected? I don't recall exactly where I read it (some NY Times article, probably), but a lot of the summer cases have been in younger, less vulnerable populations that don't tend to die from it. However, there are signs that cases in elderly populations are now increasing, which, if true, foreshadows a future increase in deaths.
Post reply on HN