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We Need a Nuclear New Deal, Not a Green New Deal

thebellows.org

191–200 of 397 posts

Re: We Need a Nuclear New Deal, Not a Green New Deal

#191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the response to that is that (1) that golden age of nuclear was far less successful than you depict, and (2) attempts to replicate it have gone disastrously wrong. Cost overruns and failures have been the norm for nuclear. In France, we don't actually know the cost of that initial roll out. In the US, nuclear construction routinely overran budgets, often by large factors. When PURPA subjected US power markets to…

Cost overruns have been the norm, but nuclear power generation at scale during the 1970s was still at most half as expensive as the Votgle and Flamanville projects that you like to cherry-pick. The atrophy of the nuclear supply chain is precisely why nuclear plants are cheaper when built at scale. When you have a steady demand for reactor pressure vessels, high pressure heat exchangers, and other specialized machiner…

> Votgle and Flamanville projects that you like to cherry-pick.

Yes, I have cherry picked 100% of the current era new nuclear construction projects in France and the US. How selective of me! /s

I suppose I should also have included all the projects that were abandoned before ground was even broken?

> Also, I'm not sure why you think weapons programs have anything to do with nuclear power generation's supply chain. The supply chain issues pertain to the construction of pressure vessels, pumps, and pipes that need to withstand the more difficult environment inside a nuclear reactor.

It includes such things as instrumentation, enrichment, fuel fabrication, and (most importantly) manpower and expertise.

> Trillions of dollars wasted is "no big deal"?

Investments are made on expected payoff. The expectation that renewables will do well is high. The off chance that they do not, oh well! Nuclear could be a backup in that case. There is no need to pump trillions into nuclear now to restore your putative golden age.

(I'd actually put carbon capture over nuclear as the backup plan. Nuclear would be the backup to the backup.)

Re: We Need a Nuclear New Deal, Not a Green New Deal

#192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A nuclear plant costs the same to run at full capacity all year round as it does to run it at partial capacity. Just run the plant at full capacity all year round, and save money by building less solar.

You have to pay off the initial construction costs. Throwing away half the energy you generate means that you're wasting the large up-front costs.

Right. If we build nuclear plants to fulfill peak energy demand (which coincides with a lack of energy production from solar) then there's not reason not to just run the nuclear plants 24/7 and skip building solar altogether. This is why nuclear power and intermittent sources end up being a dichotomy in practice.

Solar does provide a good way to mitigate carbon emissions in the meantime, even if it's role in a fully decarbonized economy is dubious. It's fast to build and makes a good complement for gas plants. Turn off the gas when the solar cells are collecting, and you can save a good deal of emissions.

Solar also has niche use cases that make sense even with nuclear power. Rooftop solar is a good way to offset air conditioning energy use. In this case, the solar energy collected by the panels are intrinsically connected to the power demand of the air conditioning unit. Plus the energy production and energy demand are co-located.

Re: We Need a Nuclear New Deal, Not a Green New Deal

#193
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear power isn't very "dispatchable", it takes long times to be turned on vs off. But it might be useful for seasonal use in the winter when there is less sun.

No. Unless you run your nuclear power plant at high capacity factor, the cost of power from it inflates unacceptably. It's an economic issue, not a technical issue.

Well then you should ask yourself: is building this nuclear reactor cheaper than buying some batteries or converting excess energy to LNG to store it for later? If it is, then a nuclear power plant is economical, if it isn't, you should do the alternatives instead.

Re: We Need a Nuclear New Deal, Not a Green New Deal

#194
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well the currently deployed, old nuclear plants certainly aren't as safe as the new, unbuilt ones the nuclear proponents always like to showcase. Even if you decide towards using nuclear in the future, you should build new reactors from scratch using those new safer designs.

There's that branch of minimalist environmentalism where their favorite nuclear reactor is whatever doesn't already exist. The instant it starts getting built, /somebody'll/ start protesting it.

Of course there will always be a better and safer design. But what about replacing the 50 year old designs currently deployed now with recent ones?

Re: We Need a Nuclear New Deal, Not a Green New Deal

#196
post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you can have both Not if the Green New Deal sucks up all the resources for "renewables" that will never provide anything close to the base load power we need.

It's at least a few orders of magnitude away from ever plausibly getting there. For all intents and purposes, such a concern is imaginary. And even then, one doesn't preclude the other. Retrofitting power distribution to have less energy loss, buildings with better insulation, more efficient logistics networks for food delivery, these are green new deal issues. None of that is anti-nuclear - they simply aren't relate…

> By "sucks up all the resources" you'd have to have all humans efforting to do things like this that nothing can be allocated to anything else.

Nonsense. Please apply some intelligence and common sense. We're not talking about shutting down all other activities and only doing Green New Deal stuff. We're talking about the limited amount of resources that can be redirected by various choices of government policy. Given the magnitude of the resources that would be required for the grandiose plans for renewables touted in the Green New Deal, there wouldn't be anything left over for nuclear.

Re: We Need a Nuclear New Deal, Not a Green New Deal

#197
Problem with nuclear deals is that the technology solutions are so centralized they put control in the hands of big government and big corporations.

And take control out of the hands of individuals.

Which means people are no longer free to decide for themselves where their energy dollars will be spent.

Who can afford to put solar panels on their home, when they are footing the bill through taxes for huge projects typically ridden by massive cost overruns, failure to properly account for decommissioning costs, and ample opportunities for corruption?

Decentralized solutions like solar, which can be paired with fast-improving battery technology, are much more appealing, even if they perhaps necessarily need to be augmented with fraught solutions like nuclear.

Re: We Need a Nuclear New Deal, Not a Green New Deal

#198

First off, you can have both. Green new deal doesn't ban reactors or anything. Second, I'm on the fence over whether I support more reactors and not because nuclear==bad. I trust the technology, but my concern is whether we can maintain a stable political environment for the decades/hundred years required to responsibly take care of nuclear. Buying into a fission reactor means you pay billions up front, but you also…

Future political generations abusing nuclear power for their own goals is something I hadn't yet considered.

Potentially extremely dangerous.

Re: We Need a Nuclear New Deal, Not a Green New Deal

#199
post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. Unless you run your nuclear power plant at high capacity factor, the cost of power from it inflates unacceptably. It's an economic issue, not a technical issue.

Well then you should ask yourself: is building this nuclear reactor cheaper than buying some batteries or converting excess energy to LNG to store it for later? If it is, then a nuclear power plant is economical, if it isn't, you should do the alternatives instead.

Hydrogen underground, not LNG, but yeah.

For some simulations to help answer when those two options are best:

https://model.energy/

Re: We Need a Nuclear New Deal, Not a Green New Deal

#200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cost overruns have been the norm, but nuclear power generation at scale during the 1970s was still at most half as expensive as the Votgle and Flamanville projects that you like to cherry-pick. The atrophy of the nuclear supply chain is precisely why nuclear plants are cheaper when built at scale. When you have a steady demand for reactor pressure vessels, high pressure heat exchangers, and other specialized machiner…

> Votgle and Flamanville projects that you like to cherry-pick. Yes, I have cherry picked 100% of the current era new nuclear construction projects in France and the US. How selective of me! /s I suppose I should also have included all the projects that were abandoned before ground was even broken? > Also, I'm not sure why you think weapons programs have anything to do with nuclear power generation's supply chain. Th…

> Yes, I have cherry picked 100% of the current era new nuclear construction projects in France and the US. How selective of me! /s

Yup, precisely. You've conveniently ignored successful projects elsewhere, like the Hanul nuclear power plant and the Taishan nuclear plant. Also, you're incorrect that Votgle is the only nuclear project in the US, Turkey Point is installing two more AP1000 reactors.

> It includes such things as instrumentation, enrichment, fuel fabrication, and (most importantly) manpower and expertise.

Enrichment is not a substantial portion of nuclear power's cost. Almost all of it is in construction and fabrication of the plant. I'm also not sure why you think building a nuclear warhead translates into running a nuclear plant. A nuclear weapons designer wants a very violent runaway nuclear reaction. This is what a nuclear plant designer wants to avoid.

Nuclear power and nuclear weapons don't use the same fuel. That's not quite true with recent plants: a few of the newer nuclear plants can mix in some weapons-grade plutonium - but the mix is still mostly uranium. This more about dismantling plutonium, as it's the only way we know how to get ride of weapons-grade fissile material - well, besides detonating the nuclear weapon.

> Investments are made on expected payoff. The expectation that renewables will do well is high. The off chance that they do not, oh well! Nuclear could be a backup in that case. There is no need to pump trillions into nuclear now to restore your putative golden age.

You continue to miss the point. With renewables and storage, we're talking in terms of hypothetical costs. What we think it will cost. Projected costs are cheap, because by definition they exclude the costs of unforeseen issues. Historical costs do include the costs of unforeseen issues that emerged in implementation.

Nuclear costs are historical costs. We know what nuclear costs, because we've built it before. And we've built it at scale.

The cost of proposed storage technologies are hypothetical costs. Nobody has built a 1TWh storage facility, let alone a 10 TWh storage facility. We can make educated guesses at what this will cost, but they're still guesses. We'll only know the real cost after it's been built. And projected costs are almost always optimistic.

Comparing historical costs to projected costs is comparing apples to oranges.

> (I'd actually put carbon capture over nuclear as the backup plan. Nuclear would be the backup to the backup.)

You seem to be particularly determined to avoid the one solution that is actually proven to work.

1. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/03/01/12-hours-energy-stora....

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