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We Need a Nuclear New Deal, Not a Green New Deal

thebellows.org

71–80 of 397 posts

Re: We Need a Nuclear New Deal, Not a Green New Deal

#71

Green new deal is something we can have now, and something we needed ten years ago. Nuclear (on the scale needed for the climate disaster) takes decades to implement. We simply don’t have the time to omit a real and solution we can start now, for a more expensive dream solution.

... is what people have been saying about Nuclear literally since Chernobyl and Three Mile Island. Had we started back then we wouldn't be in this mess. I argue not pursuing any nuclear solutions in favor of solely investing in solar and wind, we may well find ourselves saying the same thing a few decades from now. Time to get going!

Re: We Need a Nuclear New Deal, Not a Green New Deal

#72
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for providing references - there's some subtlety in the analysis you link to (on ourworldindata.org) about the human impact of nuclear energy production. While it does state that nuclear and renewables are both comparatively much safer for humans than other forms of energy generation, it does contain two different harm rates for nuclear. You're quoting a little selectively by stating that nuclear is safer; tha…

Ah, you know, I actually didn't catch that until after I posted. I used to use an older source that didn't make that distinction ([1]) but I had trouble finding it and dropped in the newer one after a cursory read-through. I appreciate you adding the clarifying analysis! I think the newer one provides a more balanced take. I will say it seems disingenuous to include the death toll of the tsunami towards nuclear energ…

No probs, thanks for the clarification!

I tend to be in the camp of "nuclear power generation risks are extremely low when well-operated and maintained by responsible and effective governance".

Meanwhile I'm also in the camp of "governance and maintenance tend to degrade once systems are widespread enough that people begin to be less accountable and become more complacent", which means I'm skeptical about whether scaling nuclear energy generation is a good idea.

Re: We Need a Nuclear New Deal, Not a Green New Deal

#73

I agree, but why set up a false dichotomy? Nuclear energy should be part of a "Green New Deal", which shouldn't just be about energy, but pragmatic environmentalism in all fields.

False dichotomies generate controversy and get more clicks!

They're pretty good for getting votes at the ballot box too.

It's been my observation that the tenets of many political ideologies are predicated on false dichotomies. Or even out and out falsehoods.

Re: We Need a Nuclear New Deal, Not a Green New Deal

#74
post #65
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Partly. It's also just very expensive to build a nuclear plant. It's also worth noting that cleanup costs in the case of a nuclear accident are capped by law at $200 million. Any costs above that are shouldered by the taxpayer. Cleanup costs for Fukushima are about ~$500 billion.

Do you have a source for those $500 billions cleanup costs? I'm interested in what is included in order to reach this figure.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/clearing-the-radi...

Re: We Need a Nuclear New Deal, Not a Green New Deal

#75

OMG has the uranium lobby woken up again? Follow my reasoning and ask yourself: 1. How long should we stock nuclear wastes securely? >> Basically forever 2. What will happen if we start using more nuclear energy? >> Wastes production will increase 3. Given an increasingly production rate of nuclear wastes, and given the fact that they have to be stocked securely forever, is this going to be economically substainable…

How long should we keep burning dirty fuels? Forever? It’s already been 50 years.

Re: We Need a Nuclear New Deal, Not a Green New Deal

#76
This article fails to present a fair view and it's too shallow to be taken seriously.

I have had the opportunity to be involved with a big player in the mid-C power market and it quickly showed me that the real challenges are different than what Reddit armchair experts identify.

tl;dr: just head over to [MIT's EN-Road Climate Simulator](https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/en-roads/), move the Nuclear dial to maximum adoption, and see what changes. You have gone from 4.1 degrees of temperature change to 3.9C. The 0.2C that is almost negligible compared to other solutions like reducing methane emissions.

The US's Green New Deal is a comprehensive document not only about climate protection but also about social injustice. The US does need something like this Deal and making a case for a "Nuclear New Deal" does not address the same issues. The internet appears to think of nuclear energy as this misunderstood miracle that the interest groups and politicians have killed.

I do think nuclear has an important role in lowering electrification costs when the carbon pricing goes up and we do need to start looking at SMRs and nuclear fusion much more seriously; below I will try to balance some of the article's points.

Before I start, I'd like to highlight that to my understanding, the biggest sustainable energy challenges come from the demand side not the supply.

> when wildfires broke out the following month, a blanket of ash blotted out the sun in some places, cutting the state’s solar energy output by one-third.

Under the wildfire circumstances many of the energy generation plants, including nuclear, may need to adjust. Solar is 20% of california's generation, so the roughly 7% cut is significant but [was not the culprit as someone pointed out](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/08/why-renew...).

Solar has an important advantage over nuclear in a disaster: it is decentralized. Independent communities can rely on their own solar power while they connect to the bigger grid as well. This creates resilience in case one of them is cut.

> Energy in California is incredibly expensive for ratepayers

Some reasons for this are environmental restrictions that stops California from buying relatively cheaper hydro power, inefficiencies in PG&E, and just generally not enough ratepayer anger.

> Reactors from civilian plants don’t blow up like atomic bombs and nuclear waste isn’t a glowing toxic ooze.

The reactors work under extreme safety considerations. Prior to Chernobyl the scientists [did not hold the concern](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3d3rzFTrLg) that a reactor is capable of making such disaster. The problem is that like most engineering we need to see what happens to fix it, and the sensitivity around nuclear increases the cost of that. The waste does glow, just not in the visible spectrum.

> elements such as uranium and plutonium have such long half-lives, the radiation they emit is low enough to safely hold in your hand.

You probably do not want to do that for a prolonged period. Also, the big issue is not only with the direct radiation but with the particles getting into the body.

The article mentioned half-lives, it is long enough that [we can't quite comprehend what to do about it](https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/ten-thousand-years/). That is true even for Thorium, though relatively much better.

The idea behind our green movement is not leaving a problem for the next generations. The nuclear energy at the advancement level of today does not guarantee that.

Re: We Need a Nuclear New Deal, Not a Green New Deal

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>So according to the guy from MIT who gave the talk, ITER is already obsolete technology. >It's amazing in theory but we have yet to achieve a fusion reaction that is energy positive and the path to that is still fraught. He also said that fusion has a funding issue, not a science or engineering issue. Also- being able to make them smaller mostly solves the funding issue.

Yes, it removes ONE funding obstacle because as the OP I replied to says cost increased with the 4th power of the size, but that just means you move to the next limiting factor: the neutron blanket, designing to be able to swap out the shielding, etc. We are still VERY far away from practical fusion. The fact that we know what the current limiting factors are doesn't mean that once we overcome those hurdles that we'l…

I wonder if that General Fusion design has any benefit here? It’s basically a swirling sphere of molten lead that is injected with a bubble of hydrogen plasma and then a bunch of pistons pump the volume down to collapse the bubble to create fusion conditions.

It seems that that the lead might provide neutron shielding and is also the carrier fluid for the excess heat. Who knows if it actually works but the simplicity of the design seems pretty elegant.

Re: We Need a Nuclear New Deal, Not a Green New Deal

#78

First off, you can have both. Green new deal doesn't ban reactors or anything. Second, I'm on the fence over whether I support more reactors and not because nuclear==bad. I trust the technology, but my concern is whether we can maintain a stable political environment for the decades/hundred years required to responsibly take care of nuclear. Buying into a fission reactor means you pay billions up front, but you also…

Define short term; I think by the time a reactor you start today comes online, we are already pretty screwed

I don't know. The science and engineering has quietly moved quite a bit over the last 40 years.

These [0] SMRs can, for example - there are several other approaches - can be assembled on a standard assembly line, shipped in a couple of C-Containers, and stood up on a concrete pad (well, not exactly, but close enough that I don't feel like complicating the point.

[0]: https://www.nuscalepower.com/

Re: We Need a Nuclear New Deal, Not a Green New Deal

#79
post #53
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the UK Hinkley point C got a strike price of £92.50 per megawatt hour guaranteed for (i think) 35 years. By contrast wind got about £39-£41 for two years. Future years will likely be even lower.

A "guarantee" from the state is worth a lot less than face value as it can simply legislate away that guarantee.

Stable governments don’t do this because it calls into question all the other agreements they have made.

Re: We Need a Nuclear New Deal, Not a Green New Deal

#80
post #5

Tax carbon at $200 per ton and magically the financing for nuclear will appear.

World Nuclear Industry Status Report - Nuclear energy too slow, too expensive to save climate: report - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-nuclearpower-idUSK... The economics don't make sense and probably never will. Taxing carbon isn't going to make renewables more expensive.

Either way, tax carbon.
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