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If pay had kept pace with productivity gains, minimum wage would be $24 an hour

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Re: If pay had kept pace with productivity gains, minimum wage would be $24 an hour

#91
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What value does technology provide other than increasing labor efficiency? If tech helps me build 10x the number of widgets, should all of that surplus value only be captured by the technology owners? What about the people who build and service the technology which allows these improvements to be implemented?

If you replace 1,000 workers with 50 and a very expensive machine, should you pay each worker who remains 20 times as much? Because that’s the assumption in the article. The people who build and service the technology are paid well. They’re techies who live in Silicon Valley, etc. But there are just very few of them compared to the 950 newly obsolete workers.

This makes me think of this passage by Bertrand Russell wrt. increases in efficiency and working hours:

"The War showed conclusively that by the scientific organization of production it is possible to keep modern populations in fair comfort on a small part of the working capacity of the modern world. If at the end of the War the scientific organization which had been created in order to liberate men for fighting and munition work had been preserved, and the hours of work had been cut down to four, all would have been well. Instead of that, the old chaos was restored, those whose work was demanded were made to work long hours, and the rest were left to starve as unemployed. Why? Because work is a duty, and a man should not receive wages in proportion to what he has produced, but in proportion to his virtue as exemplified by his industry.

This is the morality of the Slave State, applied in circumstances totally unlike those in which it arose. No wonder the result has been disastrous. Let us take an illustration. Suppose that at a given moment a certain number of people are engaged in the manufacture of pins. They make as many pins as the world needs, working (say) eight hours a day. Someone makes an invention by which the same number of men can make twice as many pins as before. But the world does not need twice as many pins: pins are already so cheap that hardly any more will be bought at a lower price. In a sensible world everybody concerned in the manufacture of pins would take to working four hours instead of eight, and everything else would go on as before. But in the actual world this would be thought demoralizing. The men still work eight hours, there are too many pins, some employers go bankrupt, and half the men previously concerned in making pins are thrown out of work. There is, in the end, just as much leisure as on the other plan, but half the men are totally idle while half are still overworked. In this way it is insured that the unavoidable leisure shall cause misery all round instead of being a universal source of happiness. Can anything more insane be imagined?"

https://harpers.org/archive/1932/10/in-praise-of-idleness/

Re: If pay had kept pace with productivity gains, minimum wage would be $24 an hour

#92

There's a lot of reasons for this but one of the largest is the near invisible (to me) structural shift from direct hire to contractors for jobs at the lower end of the wage/salary spectrum. There is a fantastic long form article that articulates this better than I can at: https://highline.huffingtonpost.com/articles/en/poor-millenn... The portion relevant to this discussion: "Thirty years ago, she says, you could wa…

A friend tells of a nearby rehabilitation hospital at which there are only two permanent employees: the director and a chaplain.

All the rest are contract. Desk clerks, cooks, nurses, doctors, therapists, janatorial....

Re: If pay had kept pace with productivity gains, minimum wage would be $24 an hour

#93
post #76

There's a lot of reasons for this but one of the largest is the near invisible (to me) structural shift from direct hire to contractors for jobs at the lower end of the wage/salary spectrum. There is a fantastic long form article that articulates this better than I can at: https://highline.huffingtonpost.com/articles/en/poor-millenn... The portion relevant to this discussion: "Thirty years ago, she says, you could wa…

The biggest reason is that there has been almost no productivity gain for cleaning a hotel in the last 20-30 years. It takes same amount of time and effort. So why would the wages go up if productivity is not up? The productivity gains went to either things that got automated (e.g. speciality equipment operator - wages are higher but there are less jobs) or knowledge workers (software engineering salaries have skyroc…

>So why would the wages go up if productivity is not up?

The wages in lots of sectors without productivity gains have gone up because they must compete against sectors where productivity has gone up. This is known as Baumol's Cost Disease.[0]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease

Re: If pay had kept pace with productivity gains, minimum wage would be $24 an hour

#94
post #84
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you replace 1,000 workers with 50 and a very expensive machine, should you pay each worker who remains 20 times as much? Because that’s the assumption in the article. The people who build and service the technology are paid well. They’re techies who live in Silicon Valley, etc. But there are just very few of them compared to the 950 newly obsolete workers.

If efficiency has gone up why hasnt rent gone down? Since rent has been pushed up by political means why not wages? Also, why are we assuming that technology brought down wages when offshoring has skyrocketed. What makes you think it wasn't competition from the third world labor rather than robots? There is a political position embedded in the assumption that robots are responsible for the missing jobs.

How about let's fix rent and not carry mistakes over to other domains.

Re: If pay had kept pace with productivity gains, minimum wage would be $24 an hour

#95
I think there's a bad assumption in here, which is that pay should keep pace with productivity gains in the first place.

I'd argue the whole point of productivity gains is that they do outpace pay. The idea is the same work generates more value. Some of that extra value can be passed back to the employee, but if all of it is passed back to the employee, then the goods produced don't actually get cheaper. If nothing gets cheaper, there's no incentive for a business to invest in tech that makes employees more productive.

The data in the piece has a lot of problems with it too, but I think the core assumption is fundamentally off-base.

Re: If pay had kept pace with productivity gains, minimum wage would be $24 an hour

#96
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What value does technology provide other than increasing labor efficiency? If tech helps me build 10x the number of widgets, should all of that surplus value only be captured by the technology owners? What about the people who build and service the technology which allows these improvements to be implemented?

If you replace 1,000 workers with 50 and a very expensive machine, should you pay each worker who remains 20 times as much? Because that’s the assumption in the article. The people who build and service the technology are paid well. They’re techies who live in Silicon Valley, etc. But there are just very few of them compared to the 950 newly obsolete workers.

From my experience building very expensive industrial machines, the gain is more like 2x-4x not 20x, and that assumes that the game of telephone in the engineering pipeline actually gets it right.

In a recent HN discussion, someone suggested that step one of emulating successful tech companies (Netflix was used as an example) was to fire half your workforce and pay the remaining half double. That logic meshes with my experiences; the machines made you more efficient, but you needed more intelligence to use them than the tools they replaced.

Re: If pay had kept pace with productivity gains, minimum wage would be $24 an hour

#97

There's a lot of reasons for this but one of the largest is the near invisible (to me) structural shift from direct hire to contractors for jobs at the lower end of the wage/salary spectrum. There is a fantastic long form article that articulates this better than I can at: https://highline.huffingtonpost.com/articles/en/poor-millenn... The portion relevant to this discussion: "Thirty years ago, she says, you could wa…

The question is why these services exist? I don't think it has to do with wages, I think it has to do with the difficulty of firing employees.

I think it has to do with wages. And also with the ability to abuse those employees without exposing the "brand" to public scrutiny and litigation. It also allows you to offer better benefits to your core employees without offering the same to employees that work for contractors (there are fringe benefits like childcare or use of company facilities like private gyms that generally must be offered to all employees in order to expense them).

Oh, you all weren't paid for your overtime? Sorry, you don't work for Hilton. You work for Rent-a-Janitor. And they just filed for bankruptcy and closed shop. Hilton had previously dropped their contract with them due to their unscrupulous practices. We have now contracted with a totally different company, Rent-a-Janitor 2.

(This is a made up example. I have no idea if Hilton does anything like this, but most all huge companies do it.)

Re: If pay had kept pace with productivity gains, minimum wage would be $24 an hour

#98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Essentially. Which is why unionization is such an important process---it binds the supply-demand curve so that employers are forced to allocate the resources more equitably. Supply suddenly dries up if nobody's willing to work for you because you won't pay a living wage (let alone a decent wage).

Except that's a temporary solution. Eventually the industry moves it to an area where people are willing to do it cheaper; hence why nearly all manufacturing is now done in poorer countries. Not saying this is correct, just commenting on reality.

It's much harder to move making hamburgers to a foreign country.

Those are going to be some terrible hamburgers by the time they're shipped back from Bangladesh to Kansas, and the wait time is going to really change the drive-thru experience. ;)

Re: If pay had kept pace with productivity gains, minimum wage would be $24 an hour

#99
I'm going to pose this question more in the context of their analysis and without consideration to anything else.

There have been a myriad of studies which try to link minimum wage to worker productivity and the default assumption is always that the worker should bear the fruit of all productivity gains. Why is this the case? Often, it is not the worker who was responsible for the capital investments that increased his/her productivity.

A couple crude examples to illustrate my opposition to this notion: - My employer pays me to create web applications. We agreed on a rate (could be 10 money units per hour OR 100 money units per application). My performance is assessed throughout my employment to see if my productivity is satisfactory for my rate. Maybe my employer refuses to invest in any tooling for me and I have to use vim to write all my code. If they then invest in an IntelliJ license for me (thanks employer!) and I am more productive, should I be paid more? Debatably, my job didn't get easier/harder. Now if I invest in the tooling myself, and am paid per application, I should get paid more; this often isn't the case.

- In 1956 if my laundromat employer paid me to wash clothes, I was probably doing it by hand and maybe getting 3-5 pounds of clothes done per hour. My wage (likely minimum) would be $1/hr. In 2020, we have laundry machines that can do 20 pounds of clothes every 30 minutes. $1/hr (of 1956 money) would be roughly $10/hr in 2020. No one would suggest that we pay someone upwards of $100/hr to run a laundry machine (unless the worker was paid per pound of laundry done and personally made the investment in the machine). It likely wouldn't even be a job if the minimum wage was $24/hr today.

It seems like these analysis of what the minimum wage should be should take into account that technology and capital investments have made a lot of jobs either lower skilled or less valuable. I'm not sure how to quantify the lack of job creation in sectors that would warrant $24/hr. Another option would be to pay workers directly for their output but this would have other consequences. Starbucks invests in making baristas efficient so they can handle the morning rush but pays them just the same for the afternoon lull.

Caveat that I am pretty ignorant to this so I may be wrong but I do not believe a low floor is what is driving wages down.

Re: If pay had kept pace with productivity gains, minimum wage would be $24 an hour

#100

I think there's a bad assumption in here, which is that pay should keep pace with productivity gains in the first place. I'd argue the whole point of productivity gains is that they do outpace pay. The idea is the same work generates more value. Some of that extra value can be passed back to the employee, but if all of it is passed back to the employee, then the goods produced don't actually get cheaper. If nothing g…

Presumably, it is possible for a product to also get better.
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