Waymo is opening its driverless service to more people in Phoenix • Hacker News Board

Re: Waymo is opening its driverless service to more people in Phoenix

#181

Post by ma2rten » Fri, Oct 09, 2020, 5:58 AM UTC

flokie wrote: post #28

I know the community is generally very negative/skeptic on this (at least based on the 21 comments so far below), but this is an amazing technical & business accomplishment. Congratulations! The blog post is relatively clear that ramp up will take a few weeks - "we’ll start with those who are already a part of Waymo One and, over the next several weeks, welcome more people directly into the service through our app" b…

* this is an amazing technical & business accomplishment*

No, it's not. Waymo has been doing amazing work, but the problem is that they PR department is a little bit too good at it's job.

Waymo has these kinds of announcements very couple of months (sometimes more often) and if you don't pay close attention all of them sound like Waymo finally had a breakthrough. But if you look closer each of them is only small incremental progress from their last announcement. In this case, Waymo was already doing driverless rides and they also didn't open them up to everyone. So even though I think that Waymo is making great progress towards a self-driving future, I understand that people get Waymo announcement fatigue.

Re: Waymo is opening its driverless service to more people in Phoenix

#182

Post by mEATsack » Fri, Oct 09, 2020, 6:06 AM UTC

pb7 wrote: post #60

fullshark wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd argue Tesla has the lead. Perhaps their approach has technical limitations that make full self-driving impossible so it's moot but they have the lead.

Tesla has the lead in marketing only, which may be why you think they have the lead, because marketing works.

Works so well you don't need a PR Department! https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-pr-media-relations/

Re: Waymo is opening its driverless service to more people in Phoenix

#183

Post by gundmc » Fri, Oct 09, 2020, 6:50 AM UTC

twmahna wrote: post #57

yowlingcat wrote: post #39

Who foots the bill when a pedestrian inevitably gets run over?

Based on the precedent set by Uber, Waymo will be held financially responsible, but won't face criminal charges. I'd be interested in reading more about the liability insurance coverage Waymo has for its self-driving program, but can't find info anywhere. Source: https://usa.streetsblog.org/2019/03/08/uber-got-off-the-hook...

For what it's worth, the backup driver in the Uber case was charged with negligent homicide just a few weeks ago.

https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/16/21439354/uber-backup-driv...

Re: Waymo is opening its driverless service to more people in Phoenix

#184

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Oct 09, 2020, 7:20 AM UTC

jliptzin wrote: post #172

nmstoker wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're spot on here. Whilst I suspect they've a long way to go, it seems likely to mirror the situation Google had with early search growth where the more they had people use it the better it got, quickly feeding a cycle the competitors could not compete with.

Tesla?

[deleted]

Re: Waymo is opening its driverless service to more people in Phoenix

#185

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Oct 09, 2020, 7:42 AM UTC

Judgmentality wrote: post #2

https://blog.waymo.com/2020/10/waymo-is-opening-its-fully-dr... > We’ll start with those who are already a part of Waymo One and, over the next several weeks, welcome more people directly into the service through our app So...this is just an extension of what they currently do where it's not really open to the public? Waymo One is something you have to apply for and almost nobody gets in. It's not clear to me what "w…

[deleted]

Re: Waymo is opening its driverless service to more people in Phoenix

#186

Post by KKKKkkkk1 » Fri, Oct 09, 2020, 7:46 AM UTC

Waymo's raison d'etre within Alphabet is that they solved self driving. They need to show Alphabet that they can deploy self driving at scale. Unfortunately, they only solved the problem when the car is supervised by a remote driver. Which is more expensive than hiring a human to drive a stock car. So they keep saying they're expanding the service without actually deploying at scale in the hope of postponing the inevitable moment at which Alphabet's board will realize that it's been taken for a ride.

Re: Waymo is opening its driverless service to more people in Phoenix

#187

Post by dragonwriter » Fri, Oct 09, 2020, 7:54 AM UTC

jfoster wrote: post #130

scotth wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...so in what way do they have the lead?

I would argue that the most significant way in which Tesla have the lead is simple but a bit unintuitive. It's that their customers pay for the cars. Think about how much capital will be required to put a million Waymo vehicles on the road. How many zeros are there on that number? Who is going to be paying that bill? Given this, even if Waymo are first to driving 100% perfectly, I expect that Tesla will eventually le…

> I would argue that the most significant way in which Tesla have the lead is simple but a bit unintuitive. It's that their customers pay for the cars.

Yes, they definitely have the lead in outsourcing costs.

> Think about how much capital will be required to put a million Waymo vehicles on the road.

Actual deployment, not counting developing the technology, maybe, what, $100 billion or so at the outside, given a generous guess at the unit cost of the cars and a generous multiplier to cover other deployment capital costs.

> How many zeros are there on that number?

8

> Who is going to be paying that bill?

Well, I mean, if they couldn't convince outside investors, Alphabet could do it with cash on hand and still have money left over, but if they can demonstrate the technology, investors will be falling all over themselves to jump on board.

Re: Waymo is opening its driverless service to more people in Phoenix

#188

Post by dragonwriter » Fri, Oct 09, 2020, 7:59 AM UTC

jfoster wrote: post #176

sidibe wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo is part of a company that is sitting on $100B+, if they thought rolling out their own cars everywhere was worth it they could afford it easier than Tesla, but also they don't need to do it in a capital intensive way, they can partner with car manufacturers or ride hailing businesses and just be responsible for the driver.

They have $100B+, but do they want to spend it all in one go like that? Sure, there's also ways to split or reduce the cost, but those also require things to be done. How long do you think it takes Waymo to get their stuff ready for a new vehicle model? Last I heard, it was between 6 and 12 months. The beauty of the Tesla model is that they've already made tonnes of the cars that should eventually be able to do this.…

> The beauty of the Tesla model is that they've already made tonnes of the cars that should eventually be able to do this.

The problem with Tesla is that while they've sold cars with that as marketing claim, there is very little reason to believe that its true.

And cars don't have an infinite shelf life; sure, they've sold lots of vehicles with that claim, but even if it were true, a whole bunch of those are already 1/4 of the way through an average US vehicle lifespan, and Tesla may end up with lower lifespan given its rock-bottom initial quality.

Re: Waymo is opening its driverless service to more people in Phoenix

#189

Post by altacc » Fri, Oct 09, 2020, 8:26 AM UTC

nickik wrote: post #90

almost_usual wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The question is not, who has the first taxi on any public road anywhere, but who first can launch 10000 of autonomous taxis and make money. Probably Waymo > Waymo so far is just a gigantic money fire, and even if you assume their autonomy works, many people have made arguments that the businesses case is really not very solid at all. Waymo has incredibly few ours driven on public roads outside of a limited area. an…

> Probably Waymo Waymo has spend 10+ years and they can now barley driven in possibly the easiest location in the world, a location where they have logged millions of miles. Waymo focuses on the easiest thing first. The technology on their car is incredibly expensive both now and to scale it to 10k, 100k, 1M vehicles is a huge challenge, both capital and manufacturing. They are like a rocket company who says, we have…

> Waymo has burned money for 10+ years

I don't think you can disparage Waymo and cheerlead Tesla on the basis that you think Waymo a money fire whilst ignoring that Tesla is massively in debt and has yet to post a positive annual net income. Tesla has burnt money for 17 years and it's recent profitable quarters are only the beginning of a turnaround that is not yet anywhere near sufficient to recoup it's losses.

In the meantime legacy car manufacturers are catching up with Tesla's offering and providing ever stronger competition. The coronavirus has disrupted production & made sales numbers confusing, but Tesla has lost its top spot in markets it led until recently. Tesla has been great PR for EVs and an important early market innovator, but it is by no means guaranteed long term success in either self-driving or car production.

Re: Waymo is opening its driverless service to more people in Phoenix

#190

Post by sergeykish » Fri, Oct 09, 2020, 8:32 AM UTC

advisedwang wrote: post #23

What is the actual advantage to consumers over an Uber? Novelty will wear off, and so to survive Waymo will actually need to be better in some way. Can anyone in Phoenix answer if Waymo is cheaper? Is Waymo hoping people will choose Waymo for safety?

Entire driver space can be scrapped.

Cars with different seat configuration — I would love to sit with my family, friends, not on separate rows.

Smaller cars for one-two passengers, brand it Eco friendly, I would certainly select Firefly over usual car.

https://www.google.com/search?q=driverless+car+interior&tbm=...