Url changed from https://twitter.com/Waymo/status/1314235663248699393, which points to this.
Waymo is opening its driverless service to more people in Phoenix
121–130 of 216 posts
Re: Waymo is opening its driverless service to more people in Phoenix
#122Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, because this announcement is a lot like their previous announcements -- fudging the language to make it sound like it's more available than it is. It's not even generally available in Phoenix yet. I'm sure someone on HN lives in Phoenix, and has never used Waymo before. Tell us if you can get a driverless ride. It's got a long way to go before it's something like Uber in Phoenix. It's got even longer to go befor…
Will you cease to be a skeptic once Waymo One is open to anyone?
I will cease to be a skeptic when it can actually drive anywhere but one, small geofenced area. When we're doing it in places with rain, and other poor weather and where roads are not all flat and in a perfect grid... And when we have to interface between old and new infrastructure.
Re: Waymo is opening its driverless service to more people in Phoenix
#123Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do you really care about the longevity of the taxi company whose cars you are riding in? Half the time, I don't even know which company that is. Or the longevity of the particular farm from which your grocery's tomatoes have been sourced from? This isn't e-mail. The cost and hassle of switching to a competing service is nearly zero.
> Do you really care about the longevity of the taxi company whose cars you are riding in? I mean, look at McDonalds and Coca-Cola, for example. I'm skeptical about the idea that simply having the SDV technology somehow also translates to being in a leadership position in terms of regulation, customer support, branding/marketing/being-installed-on-peoples-phones, etc etc. Uber already had to fight uphill regarding re…
Yes. There are other important factors.
But at least for the next few years, technology is the barrier. So Google can partner with Lyft, for example, to get a good brand, app, customer service, regulation, etc.
But on top of that, the brand in this market is the promise "our cars are safe". Google is in a distinct place to own that, because of all the press they had, they press they will have, and by really leading technologically.
As for this being a commodity ? I believe we're really far from that.
Re: Waymo is opening its driverless service to more people in Phoenix
#124What is the actual advantage to consumers over an Uber? Novelty will wear off, and so to survive Waymo will actually need to be better in some way. Can anyone in Phoenix answer if Waymo is cheaper? Is Waymo hoping people will choose Waymo for safety?
* You don't need to pay drivers * You don't need an army of marketers/hr/legal/support staff for your drivers * You don't need to dodge ambiguous contractor vs. employee laws * You don't have any risk about individual drivers being bad actors or acting fraudulently * You can predict, with great accuracy, how many cars will be available at any given time, whether or not they'll want to do another drive after (they wil…
There is also a direct benefit from riders who don't want to interact with a driver. Or want to have conversations that they would be uncomfortable subjecting a driver to.
I mean sure, there is a camera. But that is hugely different than a person (both positive and negative)
Re: Waymo is opening its driverless service to more people in Phoenix
#125Fantastic. The reality is that good mapping and some level of lidar (which is getting cheaper faster for low res/angle sensors) is somewhat game changing in terms of self driving vehicle reliability. Tesla will miss out I think by not taking advantage of doing even the cheapest possible one sensor lidar to augment their existing system. $500 -> in the future $100 for the data lidar gives you is gold.
I imagine you're correct that lidar is a huge leg-up in the race to self-driving. However, I can see a scenario where, despite that, it is not the right choice for Tesla. It's important to remember that self-driving technology will be commodity at some point (like the lidar units themselves). Whoever offers the most affordable option meeting some baseline performance will dominate the market and licence to every self…
> Which brings me back to Tesla. My guess is their strategy is not just to develop self-driving - they'd lose on equal ground (due to not being first) - but to develop "2nd gen" self-driving which has a specific competitive advantage of not requiring lidar and thus having lower total cost per unit. This allows them to enter the market late but still have a significant edge in that market.
They'll be able to drive in the rain and snow.
Re: Waymo is opening its driverless service to more people in Phoenix
#126Earlier quoted context omitted.
Will you cease to be a skeptic once Waymo One is open to anyone?
Weird question :) My claim is that it won't be open to "anyone" in a useful way any time soon. And you need to define "anyone" -- that's precisely what's being fudged here (and what's been fudged in previous announcements). To be clear: I think Waymo will fold or be wound down before this happens. In a previous comment, I said that IF we get economically feasible self-driving cars in the next 10-20 years, then it wil…
Interesting take! Why does this perspective make you bullish on Uber/Lyft?
Isn't a large portion of their FCF tied to reducing labor costs by substituting drivers with self-driving tech?
AB5 and Democrats potentially gaining unified control of Washington don't bode well for their cost structure either.
Re: Waymo is opening its driverless service to more people in Phoenix
#127Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would assume cheaper and more reliable service. With Uber/Lyft, you never know who you're going to get and what the experience will be like, and as someone that easily took 200-300 Uber rides per year pre-covid, I've seen some shit.
In the case of Uber/Lyft the driver has another function besides being the driver: they are on the hook for the capital invested in the vehicle or their ability to lease one. That's a lot of money per vehicle and utilization is the responsibility (and risk) of the driver.
This is true, but note that for a self-driving vehicle, utilization is only bounded by demand and maintenance. An Uber driver can get tired or busy with other things, but a self-driving car can go 24 hours a day minus re-fueling/charging.
Re: Waymo is opening its driverless service to more people in Phoenix
#128Earlier quoted context omitted.
Would it be too cynical to assume this whole thing is going to get shutdown after a few years due to failing to gain enough traction (due to people being wary of Google's track record of doing so with their in-google properties)?
Every Google related thread is infested with comments like this. We get it. Google shuts down products. How many times we have to have this discussion? Can we now discuss something new?
Well we can discuss something new when google stops axing products or releasing competing products all the time
Re: Waymo is opening its driverless service to more people in Phoenix
#129What is the actual advantage to consumers over an Uber? Novelty will wear off, and so to survive Waymo will actually need to be better in some way. Can anyone in Phoenix answer if Waymo is cheaper? Is Waymo hoping people will choose Waymo for safety?
Let's see: you won't get raped by the driver, a professionally-maintained vehicle is likely to be more safe than a Prius with 500k miles and no windshield wipers, you won't be cyberstalked by "God View" gawkers at Uber HQ, ...
But will you be able to run over rioters when they attack your vehicle?
Re: Waymo is opening its driverless service to more people in Phoenix
#130Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'd argue Tesla has the lead. Perhaps their approach has technical limitations that make full self-driving impossible so it's moot but they have the lead.
...so in what way do they have the lead?
I would argue that the most significant way in which Tesla have the lead is simple but a bit unintuitive. It's that their customers pay for the cars.
Think about how much capital will be required to put a million Waymo vehicles on the road. How many zeros are there on that number? Who is going to be paying that bill?
Given this, even if Waymo are first to driving 100% perfectly, I expect that Tesla will eventually leapfrog them.