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Just a few months ago, I recall many skeptics on HN claiming that full driverless technology was 10-20 years away. Do those people still think that it's going to take 10-20 years for this tech to reach say, New York, now that it's live in Phoenix?
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Waymo was started in 2009, they have existed for half of Google's existence. The amount of research and money that has gone into it is not comparable to things like Google Reader. Also, they seem to have the lead over most and the market opportunity is huge.
I'd argue Tesla has the lead. Perhaps their approach has technical limitations that make full self-driving impossible so it's moot but they have the lead.
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Would it be too cynical to assume this whole thing is going to get shutdown after a few years due to failing to gain enough traction (due to people being wary of Google's track record of doing so with their in-google properties)?
Waymo was started in 2009, they have existed for half of Google's existence. The amount of research and money that has gone into it is not comparable to things like Google Reader. Also, they seem to have the lead over most and the market opportunity is huge.
I'm also wary because ride sharing is a customer service intensive industry, an area Alphabet isn't exactly strong at.
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I would assume cheaper and more reliable service. With Uber/Lyft, you never know who you're going to get and what the experience will be like, and as someone that easily took 200-300 Uber rides per year pre-covid, I've seen some shit.
For example, we were taking an Uber through a part of a nearby city I'd never been in before, and approaching a confusing bit of roundabout, the driver leaned over to me and asked me which way to go :-(
Let's place skepticism aside for a second and assume that full driverless tech will be fully operating in major metros soon. What does that mean for the rideshare business? Are Uber/Lyft basically dead if they are years behind Waymo?
So the self-driving argument has always been winner take all. Does this mean competitors now have an existential threat unless they catch up immediately? I’m thinking Uber, Lyft, Cruise, etc.
I know everyone loves the idea of self-driving cars but the reality of self-driving cars is really ugly. We need repetitions driving vehicles in order to operate them effectively. If you don't have enough repetitions driving a vehicle when something goes wrong you're not going to be able to operate the vehicle at all. Furthermore, I'm skeptical that driverless vehicles can factor in all the ways in which someone migh…
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I'd argue Tesla has the lead. Perhaps their approach has technical limitations that make full self-driving impossible so it's moot but they have the lead.
...so in what way do they have the lead?
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Would it be too cynical to assume this whole thing is going to get shutdown after a few years due to failing to gain enough traction (due to people being wary of Google's track record of doing so with their in-google properties)?
Do you really care about the longevity of the taxi company whose cars you are riding in? Half the time, I don't even know which company that is. Or the longevity of the particular farm from which your grocery's tomatoes have been sourced from? This isn't e-mail. The cost and hassle of switching to a competing service is nearly zero.
Not that particular company no, but the longevity of taxi service in general, yes. Although, it depends on why I'm riding in a taxi. If it's an occasional ride, it's not a big deal if taxi service disappears, I can pay for long term parking at the airport, or call a friend, or something. If it's an everyday ride, loss of service means a big change.
The danger of using a Google service is two-fold. The obvious part is, you might get used to it, only for it to be dropped. But also, they may run competitors out of business before dropping it, leaving you without any options.
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Would it be too cynical to assume this whole thing is going to get shutdown after a few years due to failing to gain enough traction (due to people being wary of Google's track record of doing so with their in-google properties)?
Every Google related thread is infested with comments like this. We get it. Google shuts down products. How many times we have to have this discussion? Can we now discuss something new?
Serious now, no, Google does not get a break because they wish so. They have the right to shutter products and we have the right to bitch. Freedom at its best.