Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response • Hacker News Board

Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response

#21

Post by oopsiforgot7 » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 3:13 PM UTC

jupp0r wrote: post #15

Keep in mind that "herd immunity" isn't really immunity, it's the point at which Rt (the average number of people each infected person passes the infection on to) drops below 1.0 and the spread shrinks instead of growing. Rt is dependent on how people behave. When behavior changes, Rt can change as well. Each herd immunity level is thus dependent on health measures, which is why "reaching" herd immunity and then loos…

When non experts talk about herd immunity they mean herd immunity given no to minimal precautions. This is a well defined concept.

Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response

#22

Post by streptomycin » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 3:14 PM UTC

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v... was a similar study a couple months ago that estimated 10-20%, rather than the 34.2-47.5% in this paper. The bigger question is how long immunity lasts, which is still not known.

Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response

#23

Post by hammock » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 3:14 PM UTC

hammock wrote: post #18

umvi wrote: post #2

So, according to this paper 34.2-47.5% of US citizens need immunity before the pandemic can be declared over? So best case scenario we can achieve herd immunity with roughly 100M infections/recovered. USA is currently at ~8M infections/recovered, so that means we are roughly 8% of the way to herd immunity (best case). At the current rate of +50K infections per day, that's 20 days per 1M infections, so we need 20 days…

Well, we could get to 2MM faster if we opened everything up for the less-vulnerable populations (i.e. everyone under 50 without obesity or heart conditions) for whom the survival rate is above 99.99%. You might then be looking at 500k a day rather than 50k.

Why the massive downvotes?

Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response

#24

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 3:14 PM UTC

hammock wrote: post #18

umvi wrote: post #2

So, according to this paper 34.2-47.5% of US citizens need immunity before the pandemic can be declared over? So best case scenario we can achieve herd immunity with roughly 100M infections/recovered. USA is currently at ~8M infections/recovered, so that means we are roughly 8% of the way to herd immunity (best case). At the current rate of +50K infections per day, that's 20 days per 1M infections, so we need 20 days…

Well, we could get to 2MM faster if we opened everything up for the less-vulnerable populations (i.e. everyone under 50 without obesity or heart conditions) for whom the survival rate is above 99.99%. You might then be looking at 500k a day rather than 50k.

[deleted]

Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response

#25

Post by ryder9 » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 3:15 PM UTC

hammock wrote: post #18

umvi wrote: post #2

So, according to this paper 34.2-47.5% of US citizens need immunity before the pandemic can be declared over? So best case scenario we can achieve herd immunity with roughly 100M infections/recovered. USA is currently at ~8M infections/recovered, so that means we are roughly 8% of the way to herd immunity (best case). At the current rate of +50K infections per day, that's 20 days per 1M infections, so we need 20 days…

Well, we could get to 2MM faster if we opened everything up for the less-vulnerable populations (i.e. everyone under 50 without obesity or heart conditions) for whom the survival rate is above 99.99%. You might then be looking at 500k a day rather than 50k.

[dead]

Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response

#26

Post by COVardsStayHome » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 3:15 PM UTC

ardy42 wrote: post #19

umvi wrote: post #2

So, according to this paper 34.2-47.5% of US citizens need immunity before the pandemic can be declared over? So best case scenario we can achieve herd immunity with roughly 100M infections/recovered. USA is currently at ~8M infections/recovered, so that means we are roughly 8% of the way to herd immunity (best case). At the current rate of +50K infections per day, that's 20 days per 1M infections, so we need 20 days…

> At the current rate of +50K infections per day, that's 20 days per 1M infections, so we need 20 days * 92 = 5 years before we achieve herd immunity (best case, assuming no vaccines)? That doesn't seem right. I can't remember exactly where I heard it, but I believe robust herd immunity in human populations has never been achieved for a virus like this without the widespread use of a vaccine. Which makes sense, becau…

So how did the Spanish Flu disappear?

Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response

#27

Post by just-juan-post » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 3:15 PM UTC

jupp0r wrote: post #15

Keep in mind that "herd immunity" isn't really immunity, it's the point at which Rt (the average number of people each infected person passes the infection on to) drops below 1.0 and the spread shrinks instead of growing. Rt is dependent on how people behave. When behavior changes, Rt can change as well. Each herd immunity level is thus dependent on health measures, which is why "reaching" herd immunity and then loos…

> Each herd immunity level is thus dependent on health measures

This seems like something you made up. Can you cite your source?

How exactly does your rule apply to non-humans? What "health measures" do packs of wild horses take when disease comes to the herd?

Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response

#28

Post by HarryHirsch » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 3:17 PM UTC

StevePerkins wrote: post #16

HarryHirsch wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We know that coronaplague spreads through superspreading events, person-to-person transmission is wildly variable, most people don't infect anyone, but some give it to a dozen. You'd like to know if people are wearing masks at church or if family get-togethers are now outdoors.

I think the common perception on HN, Reddit, etc is that COVID spread in the U.S. is primary a matter of conservative people flouting its seriousness. I understand the satisfying appeal of that picture. However, I'm looking at my local health department's ZIP-code-by-ZIP-code infection map of the metro area. And it seems almost entirely correlated with poverty, not privilege. Infection spread seems mostly due to "ess…

Yes, you'd say that the Red areas are on aggregate older, poorer and less likely to work from home.

That said, at my regional college in the Deep South, case numbers have dropped noticeably since the beginning of term - instead of 30 cases every day we have now ten, and there have been remarkably few outbreaks at frathouses, all that despite no organized testing.

Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response

#29

Post by COVardsStayHome » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 3:18 PM UTC

hammock wrote: post #23

hammock wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, we could get to 2MM faster if we opened everything up for the less-vulnerable populations (i.e. everyone under 50 without obesity or heart conditions) for whom the survival rate is above 99.99%. You might then be looking at 500k a day rather than 50k.

Why the massive downvotes?

Because the people here are pro lockdown as they can work from home, their companies are making crazy money and last but not least - they are antisocial losers that cannot find their way home without a GPS.

Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response

#30

Post by jackpeterfletch » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 3:19 PM UTC

umvi wrote: post #2

So, according to this paper 34.2-47.5% of US citizens need immunity before the pandemic can be declared over? So best case scenario we can achieve herd immunity with roughly 100M infections/recovered. USA is currently at ~8M infections/recovered, so that means we are roughly 8% of the way to herd immunity (best case). At the current rate of +50K infections per day, that's 20 days per 1M infections, so we need 20 days…

This is fag packet math, so I'll spare any exact figures.

But if the second wave data for the UK is anything to go by, confirmed cases vs actual cases was at _least_ 5x for the first wave.

There obivously are other factors, but with increased testing that multiplier only climbs, bringing herd immunity numbers actually within reasonable grasp.

I strongly suspect there have been similar effects in the US.