Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response
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Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response
#2So, according to this paper 34.2-47.5% of US citizens need immunity before the pandemic can be declared over? So best case scenario we can achieve herd immunity with roughly 100M infections/recovered. USA is currently at ~8M infections/recovered, so that means we are roughly 8% of the way to herd immunity (best case).
At the current rate of +50K infections per day, that's 20 days per 1M infections, so we need 20 days * 92 = 5 years before we achieve herd immunity (best case, assuming no vaccines)? That doesn't seem right.
Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response
#3I really struggle reading academic studies still...
"Heterogeneity in contact structure and individual variation in infectivity, susceptibility, and resistance are key factors that reduce the disease-induced herd immunity levels to 34.2-47.5% in our models."
I THINK that means, in addition to how infectious COVID is, and how susceptible and resistant people are in general, one of the other things that impact herd immunity is "contact structure" and it tends to be sort of limited. There seems to be plenty of "Heterogeneity in contact structure" studies done on many other things out there, so it looks like this is something that's already understood. If I understand it correctly, it means that most people have limited contacts, and while we all might be "6 degrees" from everyone else, we're not directly contacting all those people, and so that could help with herd immunity. So that maybe reduces the number from 74% to this 34-47% number, which better.
Does that mean "Heterogeneity in contact structure" is different for people based on things like how often we go out, where we go, how we travel and where we live? e.g. a subway/bus trip in Manhattan, NY is different than driving alone in Manhattan, KS.
Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response
#4So, according to this paper 34.2-47.5% of US citizens need immunity before the pandemic can be declared over? So best case scenario we can achieve herd immunity with roughly 100M infections/recovered. USA is currently at ~8M infections/recovered, so that means we are roughly 8% of the way to herd immunity (best case). At the current rate of +50K infections per day, that's 20 days per 1M infections, so we need 20 days…
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Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response
#5So, according to this paper 34.2-47.5% of US citizens need immunity before the pandemic can be declared over? So best case scenario we can achieve herd immunity with roughly 100M infections/recovered. USA is currently at ~8M infections/recovered, so that means we are roughly 8% of the way to herd immunity (best case). At the current rate of +50K infections per day, that's 20 days per 1M infections, so we need 20 days…
Actual infection count is probably far higher than 8M, isn't it? That's just number of positive tests.
Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response
#6So, according to this paper 34.2-47.5% of US citizens need immunity before the pandemic can be declared over? So best case scenario we can achieve herd immunity with roughly 100M infections/recovered. USA is currently at ~8M infections/recovered, so that means we are roughly 8% of the way to herd immunity (best case). At the current rate of +50K infections per day, that's 20 days per 1M infections, so we need 20 days…
> USA is currently at ~8M infections/recovered
CONFIRMED cases. The total number of cases is probably 5-10x that.
I live in the Deep South, and honestly I suspect that our curves have fallen simply due to a "limited" herd immunity effect (i.e. the groups of people most likely to catch COVID have already done so in large enough numbers). I certainly haven't observed any significant change in behaviors since the July peak, yet the numbers are falling like a rock regardless.
Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response
#7So, according to this paper 34.2-47.5% of US citizens need immunity before the pandemic can be declared over? So best case scenario we can achieve herd immunity with roughly 100M infections/recovered. USA is currently at ~8M infections/recovered, so that means we are roughly 8% of the way to herd immunity (best case). At the current rate of +50K infections per day, that's 20 days per 1M infections, so we need 20 days…
Actual infection count is probably far higher than 8M, isn't it? That's just number of positive tests.
I thought I remembered reading early on that icelandic testing was showing that 50% of all people infected there showed no symptoms. Then add on how many people show symptoms but its not severe enough to get tested.
Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response
#8I really struggle reading academic studies still... "Heterogeneity in contact structure and individual variation in infectivity, susceptibility, and resistance are key factors that reduce the disease-induced herd immunity levels to 34.2-47.5% in our models." I THINK that means, in addition to how infectious COVID is, and how susceptible and resistant people are in general, one of the other things that impact herd imm…
Yeah, that's what it's referring to. People with more points of contact are both more likely to catch the virus and have a larger impact on herd immunity once they're immune.
Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response
#9So, according to this paper 34.2-47.5% of US citizens need immunity before the pandemic can be declared over? So best case scenario we can achieve herd immunity with roughly 100M infections/recovered. USA is currently at ~8M infections/recovered, so that means we are roughly 8% of the way to herd immunity (best case). At the current rate of +50K infections per day, that's 20 days per 1M infections, so we need 20 days…
> infections/recovered
This is a false binary state space.
The implication here is that having "tested positive" is equivalent to having an "infection". An infection, by definition, is an alteration of the biological state of the entity with observable side-effects (symptoms). It is patently false to assert that "testing positive" for this virus is 100% indicative of an "infection".
Further, "100M infections/recovered" implies that this infection can lead to "recovered" implying that the other alternative to recovere is a terminal/chronic condition. I guess this makes sense if we agree that many millions of "infected" immediately "recover" after testing positive, given that a substantial subset of those who "test positive" are "asymptomatic", reasonably understood as not-ill, not-sick, not-infected. Thus insta "recovery".
My overall point here is that the permitted vocabulary of speaking and reasoning about this phenomena is inexplicably illiterate. Whether this permitted simplistic vocabulary of discourse is by design or a symptomatic of the state of humanity, the inevitable consequence is a degradation of analysis and sub-optimal solutions.
Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response
#10So, according to this paper 34.2-47.5% of US citizens need immunity before the pandemic can be declared over? So best case scenario we can achieve herd immunity with roughly 100M infections/recovered. USA is currently at ~8M infections/recovered, so that means we are roughly 8% of the way to herd immunity (best case). At the current rate of +50K infections per day, that's 20 days per 1M infections, so we need 20 days…
> USA is currently at ~8M infections/recovered CONFIRMED cases. The total number of cases is probably 5-10x that. I live in the Deep South, and honestly I suspect that our curves have fallen simply due to a "limited" herd immunity effect (i.e. the groups of people most likely to catch COVID have already done so in large enough numbers). I certainly haven't observed any significant change in behaviors since the July p…
We know that coronaplague spreads through superspreading events, person-to-person transmission is wildly variable, most people don't infect anyone, but some give it to a dozen.
You'd like to know if people are wearing masks at church or if family get-togethers are now outdoors.