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Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

ons.gov.uk

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Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#11

Post by mrtksn »

MrBuddyCasino wrote: post #4

This chart from Sweden says its not worse than influenza: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ejd0IpdVcAASTqR?format=jpg&name=... Looking at the source data, the numbers seem roughly right: https://knoema.de/atlas/Schweden/Sterblichkeitsrate I don't know what to think anymore.

Are there instances of hospitals corridors turning into morgues in recent years due to Influenza?

If Covid-19 is not worse than the Influenza we should have similar impact due to influenza.

I was not able to confirm that Influenza creates similar strain to healthcare infrastructure as Covid-19 which makes me think that the Covid-19 situation in Sweden is more nuanced than the numbers say.

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#12

Post by MrsPeaches »

ryanjshaw wrote: post #6
bb123 wrote: post #2

This is pretty damming to anyone who claims "its just the flu": “More than three times as many deaths were recorded between January and August this year where COVID-19 was the underlying cause compared to influenza and pneumonia." “The mortality rate for COVID-19 is also significantly higher than influenza and pneumonia rates for both 2020 and the five-year average." “Since 1959, which is when ONS monthly death recor…

Surely it's much more complicated than this? Assuming the COVID-19 assigned deaths are accurately labelled, how many COVID-19 deaths would have been pneumonia/influenza deaths? How many pneumonia/influenza deaths from 2021, 2022, ... have been brought forward to 2020? How much has the lockdown contributed to poor immune systems? Which age groups are affected more, were they already at life expectancy? It's obviously…

From TFA:

"The analysis of COVID-19, influenza and pneumonia deaths in this bulletin focuses on deaths where these conditions were the underlying cause of death (deaths “due to”), rather than deaths where the conditions were either the underlying cause or mentioned as a contributing factor (deaths “involving”). Data for deaths where COVID-19, influenza and pneumonia were a contributing factor are available in the accompanying dataset."

They also point to this document for more details: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsde...

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#13

Post by tremon »

gridlockd wrote: post #5

Some things to consider from looking at the raw data: The 5-year average minimum of deaths from "Influenza and pneumonia" is about 50 cases per day. The average for 2020 is about half that. Adding up COVID fatalities and "Influeanza and pneumonia" after July comes to about 50 cases per day. In other words, there is no excess mortality from COVID-19 since July.

Thanks, I was already browsing the data set to look at the same thing. When, as a statistician, you already observe that "In 2020 deaths due to influenza and pneumonia were consistently lower than the five-year average in all months from January to August" you need to include the total figure for deaths of Influenza+Pneumonia+Covid19 to arrive at a meaningful comparison against previous years.

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#14

Post by the_mitsuhiko »

MrBuddyCasino wrote: post #4

This chart from Sweden says its not worse than influenza: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ejd0IpdVcAASTqR?format=jpg&name=... Looking at the source data, the numbers seem roughly right: https://knoema.de/atlas/Schweden/Sterblichkeitsrate I don't know what to think anymore.

Note that despite what you might think, Swedes do socially distance. So if they have what looks like a bad flu season despite all the changes to everyday life you can assume that it's at the very least worse than influenza for which no such restrictions are done.

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#15

Post by dustinmoris »

MrBuddyCasino wrote: post #4

This chart from Sweden says its not worse than influenza: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ejd0IpdVcAASTqR?format=jpg&name=... Looking at the source data, the numbers seem roughly right: https://knoema.de/atlas/Schweden/Sterblichkeitsrate I don't know what to think anymore.

Well the UK chart also shows that:

- Influenza and Pneumonia are counted as one, because the majority of Pneumonia deaths are due to Influenza

- Influenza and Pneumonia deaths have been SUBSTANTIALLY lower ever single month in 2020 than the five year average

- Of the deaths where both influenza and pneumonia, and COVID-19 were mentioned on the death certificate, the underlying cause of death was counted as COVID-19 in 95.8%

So basically this alone already highlights the gross overestimation of COVID-19 deaths. I feels plain wrong to attribute almost all deaths to COVID-19 when the person also had Influenza when it is evident that we've seen so many less Influenza deaths this year. Clearly we're not giving Influenza enough credit in being the cause of death which is wrong IMHO.

Also further below when you look at the age distribution, the vast majority of deaths happened in 80+ year olds, even more in 84+ year olds, which makes one really think. COVID-19 is not nearly as much of a threat to the vast majority of the population as we are made to believe. It seems the people who are dying from COVID-19 are those who have reached an age which is well beyond the average life expectancy of a first world country.

Not saying that COVID-19 isn't a threat, it is, but it's not like the Spanish flu which was killing predominantly young people or the plague which was wiping people of all age groups.

EDIT: Typos corrected.

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#16

Post by logicchains »

titzer wrote: post #9
bb123 wrote: post #2

This is pretty damming to anyone who claims "its just the flu": “More than three times as many deaths were recorded between January and August this year where COVID-19 was the underlying cause compared to influenza and pneumonia." “The mortality rate for COVID-19 is also significantly higher than influenza and pneumonia rates for both 2020 and the five-year average." “Since 1959, which is when ONS monthly death recor…

Just look at the daily and monthly numbers. April was absolutely horrific, with daily deaths spiking at 15x and April at more than 10x. Lockdowns flattened the curve, care improved, mask wearing improved, and overall better hygiene, particularly at nursing homes. The overall death rate is going down because the age demographic of infection has changed as well. Basically, it's hitting more younger people and older peo…

>Lockdowns flattened the curve, care improved, mask wearing improved, and overall better hygiene, particularly at nursing homes.

Comparing places with and without lockdowns there's actually little evidence that lockdowns led to a reduction in mortality: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/social-distancing-more-imp.... What was associated with a reduction in mortality was social distancing.

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#17

Post by evgen »

gridlockd wrote: post #7
MrBuddyCasino wrote: post #4

This chart from Sweden says its not worse than influenza: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ejd0IpdVcAASTqR?format=jpg&name=... Looking at the source data, the numbers seem roughly right: https://knoema.de/atlas/Schweden/Sterblichkeitsrate I don't know what to think anymore.

Doesn't seem right to me. Euromomo does show a bump for Sweden, though it is still smaller than some other countries that did lockdowns: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps Also, several countries show no excess mortality.

Compare Sweden to its immediate neighbors like Norway, Finland, and Denmark and the cost of Sweden's failed response becomes pretty obvious.

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#18

Post by fabian2k »

I think it is important to keep in mind that Covid-19 is still contained to some extent due to various measures. The influenza numbers are for the most part without any behaviour changes or rules (the influenza season ended roughly when Covid started to spread). The Covid-19 deaths would be higher if it were able to spread unhindered through the entire population.

And even in this somewhat unfair comparison Covid caused three times as many deaths.

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#20

Post by tremon »

born_a_skeptic wrote: post #3

I'm not a statistician or a scientist, but I don't it does any good to lump everything together over the past ~9 months and compare it to Influenza and Pneumonia. Just think about it. We barely knew anything about covid or how to treat it at the start of the year. Now, it seems like we have a better understanding and how to potentially treat it. Compare this to Influenza/Pneumonia, which I'm just guessing we've been…

I don't think you can lump everything together

Why not? Do you think the number of previously recorded deaths will suddenly decrease because we've found a better treatment? These people died, they should be included in the statistics.

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