Is Android responsible for Apple’s deep market discount? • Hacker News Board

Re: Is Android responsible for Apple’s deep market discount?

#11

Post by dailyrorschach » Thu, Apr 21, 2011, 3:52 PM UTC

recoiledsnake wrote: post #10

dailyrorschach wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ad hominem much? We can argue about his conclusions and methods, but to say that he's some armchair analyst to me implies that his track-record is poor and that he should not be considered trustworthy on analyzing Apple's financials. That's simply not the case at all: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/01/19/apples-blow-out-quart...

Predicting numbers is one thing(luck can play a very big role) and deep analysis without being clouded by one's biases is another. Asymco seems to fail in this regard in most of the posts(including this one) which come through as abject fanboyism not tempered by reality. How is it ad hominem? The poster clearly described why he thought so later on in the post. You can't take a line of someone's post to call ad homine…

I still think beginning your argument in that way is unhelpful to the discussion. He said nothing of value by calling him a navel-gazing armchair analyst. The comment would have been more valuable simply taking issue with the one line he quoted and then discussed. But now, I'm starting to be guilty of the same, so I'm going to stop.

Edit: That being said, certainly open to evidence that proves your points w/r/t his ability, and a later poster in the thread did just that.

Re: Is Android responsible for Apple’s deep market discount?

#12

Post by cooldeal » Thu, Apr 21, 2011, 3:57 PM UTC

nextparadigms wrote: post #9

trotsky wrote: post #3

I find asymco's analysis truly fascinating at times. First he casually, almost forgetfully offers the opinion that the US's second largest company in market cap should be trading at a 32 P/E. Then accepting this opinion as fact, he presents a "common argument" against it which I've never actually heard discussed before and proceeds to deconstruct it as not being significant enough to provide the downward pressure on…

I've seen many misleading charts from him that seemed very believable and indeed many people believed him. He's very good at twisting the data to show what he wants and "make sense". The most infamous one I remember is when he used LG, Samsung and a few other companies profit and revenue data to show that they are losing or not making much money from Android, when he never actually showed the profit and revenue data…

A cursory glance at his articles shows that he's a completely biased Apple fanboy. Not really going to expect any objectivity from him. All he does is praise Apple and poke fun at Android and other competitors. Like Gruber, he has cultivated an audience and tells them what they want to hear to drive page hits and revenue. It seems to be a highly successful business model, atleast for Gruber. That's the real reason they write what they write, regardless of what they actually think.

Re: Is Android responsible for Apple’s deep market discount?

#13

Post by jlv » Thu, Apr 21, 2011, 3:58 PM UTC

hnsmurf wrote: post #6

"Apple has not “lost sales” to Android as it has been selling all it can produce. " I'm not sure that's a useful way of looking at it. If Android were never born Apple may have doubled production capacity and still be selling out for lack of a viable competitor. And even if it's been benign so far, it won't be soon. It's hard to spot the effects of competition in a rapidly growing market like consumer smart phones or…

I'm not sure your analysis holds either, though. All signs point to Apple being pretty aggressive in securing its supply-chain both for current production and future potential (see: Brazil).

Re: Is Android responsible for Apple’s deep market discount?

#14

Post by Anechoic » Thu, Apr 21, 2011, 4:02 PM UTC

cooldeal wrote: post #8

hnsmurf wrote: post #6

"Apple has not “lost sales” to Android as it has been selling all it can produce. " I'm not sure that's a useful way of looking at it. If Android were never born Apple may have doubled production capacity and still be selling out for lack of a viable competitor. And even if it's been benign so far, it won't be soon. It's hard to spot the effects of competition in a rapidly growing market like consumer smart phones or…

>"Apple has not “lost sales” to Android as it has been selling all it can produce. " Is that really true of the iPhone? Thought the Verizon iPhone was not doing so well because of all the flagship Android phones that run on Verizon. Even if it were, it does not take into account the price pressure, if there were no competition, the prices, margin and hence profit could be much higher.

>Thought the Verizon iPhone was not doing so well because of all the flagship Android phones that run on Verizon.

The speculation I've seen (and it's just that since Apple/Verizon never released forecast numbers) was that sales are running below expectations but the reasoning for that isn't settled. It could be because of the Android flagship phones, or (as Marco has speculated) it could be because of contract cycles and folks are waiting for their contracts to expire before switching rather than breaking their contracts.

Re: Is Android responsible for Apple’s deep market discount?

#15

Post by cageface » Thu, Apr 21, 2011, 4:18 PM UTC

Capital markets are notoriously incompetent in spotting disruptions and often reward those who are failing right up until the bitter end.

I wish market evangelists would acknowledge this more often. The market is a useful mechanism but it's far from omniscient.

Re: Is Android responsible for Apple’s deep market discount?

#16

Post by bad_user » Thu, Apr 21, 2011, 4:33 PM UTC

    If Apple bought Google (it already has a third 
    of its value in cash) and it shut down Android, 
    it could create $300 billion in value

Can Apple really buy Google?

Even if it had all the cash needed, isn't the board of directors supposed to agree? Would shareholders themselves agree knowing that (a) Apple is buying Google to dismember it, (b) Apple is putting itself in serious debt without having a guaranteed ROI and (c) Google is still ridding the wave and its best days may have yet to come ?

Why do people feel the need to make such statements anyway?

Re: Is Android responsible for Apple’s deep market discount?

#17

Post by Duff » Thu, Apr 21, 2011, 4:43 PM UTC

I think the fear of Android eroding Apple's dominating market position, the mid-term fate of Steve Jobs and the dependence on consumer hardware sales makes some investors hesitant.

Apple carries this aura that is amazing, and the stock is way undervalued IMO.

Apple disrespects and makes it difficult for big companies to do business with them in a way they are accustomed to -- yet probably 30% of the "enterprise" salespeople I run into are carrying iPhones and about 20% are ditching laptops for iPads. That's market power nobody on the market has right now.