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The Cat-and-Mouse Game of the Modern Penalty Kick

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Re: The Cat-and-Mouse Game of the Modern Penalty Kick

#21

Post by JacobAldridge »

s3krit wrote: post #19
jonplackett wrote: post #10

It’s funny how this has become such a weird art form. There are plenty of players (mostly strikers) who don’t do anything fancy but score 99% of the time by just picking top left or top right corner and hitting it so fast it’s impossible to save. Harry Kane is a good modern example, but Alan Shearer also never really missed penalties with the same idea.

Jamie Vardy, also mentioned in the article, just hoofs it in most of the time. In fact, I'm pretty sure that's how he scored the 2 pens against man city in the article.

To me, with a limited data set, Vardy does seem to have got smarter over the past few years. Still pace and power, but a little more skill even if it slows the ball down (perhaps as he gets older, or just wiser?).

Re: The Cat-and-Mouse Game of the Modern Penalty Kick

#22

Post by mav3rick »

ksec wrote: post #18
jonplackett wrote: post #10

It’s funny how this has become such a weird art form. There are plenty of players (mostly strikers) who don’t do anything fancy but score 99% of the time by just picking top left or top right corner and hitting it so fast it’s impossible to save. Harry Kane is a good modern example, but Alan Shearer also never really missed penalties with the same idea.

Reminds me of Ruud Van Nistelrooy. Low and Fast.

If it's low it needs to be at the very edge of the corner. Otherwise GK can reach it. Going high has the risk of overhitting it

Re: The Cat-and-Mouse Game of the Modern Penalty Kick

#23

Post by smcl »

jonplackett wrote: post #10

It’s funny how this has become such a weird art form. There are plenty of players (mostly strikers) who don’t do anything fancy but score 99% of the time by just picking top left or top right corner and hitting it so fast it’s impossible to save. Harry Kane is a good modern example, but Alan Shearer also never really missed penalties with the same idea.

Trying to hit it in the top left or right corner is so risky though - for a high-profile example of what can go wrong take a look at Baggio's penalty miss in the 1994 World Cup final or when Beckham skied his against Portugal in 2004. In a high pressure situation like a penalty it's so easy to get under it and send it soaring over the bar.

I think it's more about going with what you are confident with, and having the resolve to not change your mind just before you hit the ball. I had a pretty solid right footed drive, so I'd just crack it low and hard into the bottom left. That way I didn't have to be particularly accurate to get a good chance of converting it (it didn't have to be tucked JUST inside the post) but the keeper had to:

1. guess the right side

2. know I was going low

3. dive very quickly

4. dive quite far

I know that any time I missed I doubted myself or changed my mind at the last minute and tried something different or fancy. I was not a famous footballer facing an opponent who had studied my stats though - so I doubt this is a strategy that works outside Sunday League :-)

edit: I went back to check Beckham's penalty against Portugal to check my memory wasn't misleading me ... man that was some shootout: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlEUdZgH0gc

- David Beckham kicks his penalty over the crossbar, out of the stadium and into orbit

- Rui Costa kicks his penalty over too, not quite as high

- Nuno Gomes (I think?) does a Panenka

- Ricardo saves a penalty for Portugal without his gloves, then proceeds to take penalty himself ... and scores, winning the game

Re: The Cat-and-Mouse Game of the Modern Penalty Kick

#24

Post by kyrers »

From what I've read, I seem to have a unpopular opinion as it regards Jorginho and Bruno Fernandes technique (the little skip before shooting).

Skipping before shooting is really dangerous in my eyes. First off, you lose shot power (much more notable in Jorginho's case). Second, the goalkeepers get familiar with it, and start waiting for the skip (Bruno Fernandes changed his technique recently in the Europa League due to this, the goalkeeper almost saved it, only he couldn't due to shot power. If BF skipped, the power would not have been enough).

It could be argued that the panenka is the same thing - if the goalkeeper waits, he saves. However, the panenka does not require the run to be changed, adding to the surprise factor.

All that being said, powerful shot to the side netting is still my go to.

Re: The Cat-and-Mouse Game of the Modern Penalty Kick

#25

Post by jonplackett »

smcl wrote: post #23
jonplackett wrote: post #10

It’s funny how this has become such a weird art form. There are plenty of players (mostly strikers) who don’t do anything fancy but score 99% of the time by just picking top left or top right corner and hitting it so fast it’s impossible to save. Harry Kane is a good modern example, but Alan Shearer also never really missed penalties with the same idea.

Trying to hit it in the top left or right corner is so risky though - for a high-profile example of what can go wrong take a look at Baggio's penalty miss in the 1994 World Cup final or when Beckham skied his against Portugal in 2004. In a high pressure situation like a penalty it's so easy to get under it and send it soaring over the bar. I think it's more about going with what you are confident with, and having the…

I still remember the pain of this (and many other england) shoot outs.

Apparently it was team policy back then not to practice penalties. No wonder we always lost.

It wasn't until Gareth Southgate took over as england manager (who infamously had his terrible semi final penalty saved in Euro 96) that we started practicing - and guess what, we won the next penalty shoot out. Who'd have thought?

Re: The Cat-and-Mouse Game of the Modern Penalty Kick

#26

Post by raverbashing »

tasuki wrote: post #12
L_Rahman wrote: post #3

Reading this after having watched an incredible NBA finals game makes me sad for football fans. What a sluggish, broken sport they have the misfortune of following.

And I'm sad for people who watch NBA. What a misfortune to sit and watch sports instead of partaking in them.

Who says NBA fans don't or can't play basketball?

Re: The Cat-and-Mouse Game of the Modern Penalty Kick

#27

Post by smcl »

jonplackett wrote: post #25
smcl wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trying to hit it in the top left or right corner is so risky though - for a high-profile example of what can go wrong take a look at Baggio's penalty miss in the 1994 World Cup final or when Beckham skied his against Portugal in 2004. In a high pressure situation like a penalty it's so easy to get under it and send it soaring over the bar. I think it's more about going with what you are confident with, and having the…

I still remember the pain of this (and many other england) shoot outs. Apparently it was team policy back then not to practice penalties . No wonder we always lost. It wasn't until Gareth Southgate took over as england manager (who infamously had his terrible semi final penalty saved in Euro 96) that we started practicing - and guess what, we won the next penalty shoot out. Who'd have thought?

Good grief that is bonkers. I wonder if it was justified like - if you prepare for penalties the players will aim for that instead of trying to win in 90 minutes or in Extra Time. Like an old antiquated training strategy I read about where a team would train without a ball, so that they’d be more hungry for it during the game.

I cannot imagine what it feels like to be an England fan. With Scotland it’d be an achievement if we even reached a major finals, and we’re kinda prepared for disappointment in every game. But England are a genuinely good team who are capable of winning the Euros or the World Cup if they don’t bottle it.

Re: The Cat-and-Mouse Game of the Modern Penalty Kick

#28

Post by Someone »

kyrers wrote: post #24

From what I've read, I seem to have a unpopular opinion as it regards Jorginho and Bruno Fernandes technique (the little skip before shooting). Skipping before shooting is really dangerous in my eyes. First off, you lose shot power (much more notable in Jorginho's case) . Second, the goalkeepers get familiar with it, and start waiting for the skip (Bruno Fernandes changed his technique recently in the Europa League d…

Conventional thinking is (or was? I don’t follow this closely) that hard shots into the side netting either low to the ground or high up are unstoppable. The goalkeeper cannot reach the high corners, and will not fall fast enough to catch low shots, if the shot is fast enough.

Mid-high shots close to the side of the goal are catchable, if the goalkeeper guesses (possibly with over 50% chance, if he knows the player or can tell from his approach) the direction of the shot.

Problem of course, is maintaining accuracy while shooting hard under pressure. Many players seem to be able to do that nowadays (most of the time)

Re: The Cat-and-Mouse Game of the Modern Penalty Kick

#29

Post by kyrers »

Someone wrote: post #28
kyrers wrote: post #24

From what I've read, I seem to have a unpopular opinion as it regards Jorginho and Bruno Fernandes technique (the little skip before shooting). Skipping before shooting is really dangerous in my eyes. First off, you lose shot power (much more notable in Jorginho's case) . Second, the goalkeepers get familiar with it, and start waiting for the skip (Bruno Fernandes changed his technique recently in the Europa League d…

Conventional thinking is (or was? I don’t follow this closely) that hard shots into the side netting either low to the ground or high up are unstoppable. The goalkeeper cannot reach the high corners, and will not fall fast enough to catch low shots, if the shot is fast enough. Mid-high shots close to the side of the goal are catchable, if the goalkeeper guesses (possibly with over 50% chance, if he knows the player o…

> Conventional thinking is (or was? I don’t follow this closely) that hard shots into the side netting either low to the ground or high up are unstoppable. The goalkeeper cannot reach the high corners, and will not fall fast enough to catch low shots, if the shot is fast enough.

It still is.

When I said that I have an unpopular opinion, it was just referring to the skipping technique.

Re: The Cat-and-Mouse Game of the Modern Penalty Kick

#30

Post by alexpotato »

The book Soccernomics [0], has a whole chapter dedicated to both the psychology and game theory of penalty kicks.

Long story short:

- Let's simplify to the options being: you kick either left or right

- The goalie has to pick which side BEFORE you kick b/c by the time you kick, it's too late for the goalie to react

- Your basic strategies are: always left, always right, alternate left/right or try to be as random as possible (which is assumed to be hard for humans)

The most fascinating part of their analysis was that elite level soccer players are, essentially, random. I believe they also mention that it's one of the few times in human studies where humans have been this close, statistically, to be able to generate random outcomes.

They also go on to wonder if being able to generate random outcomes leads to you being an elite penalty kick specialist or if, over time, you develop that skill as part of the basket of abilities needed to compete at that level

0 - https://amzn.to/3jKr4RK

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