Live data from Hacker News

Japan’s lost generation is still jobless and living with their parents

bloomberg.com

41–50 of 354 posts

Re: Japan’s lost generation is still jobless and living with their parents

#41
post #3
post #2

The things that stand out to me about Japan: * 3rd largest economy. * 11th largest population (top 10 until recently, they basically tie with Mexico). * If you look at a table of countries by area, they are there. Even in the top half, thanks to places like Tuvalu. I think there is a very strong on-the-face-of-it argument that they just have too many people and not enough for them to do, economically speaking. If the…

That's not how economy works. There is no such thing in general as "too many people for the economy". "The economy" is the sum of goods and services produced and consumed. Everyone who lives consumes, and could easily consume more. The economy is generally limited by the ability to produce, and is generally limited by the number of working-age people to do the producing. Unemployment can be result of production being…

Like others having lived there for a short period of time, I agree with this observation. The cultural premium on risk, that may merely inconvenience someone, is unreasonably high (by my standard, anyway). Ever have to pay a bribe to a landlord to rent an apartment as a matter of accepted business protocol? Look up "reikin". Then you'll realize why some think it's totally reasonable to live out of an internet cafe.

Re: Japan’s lost generation is still jobless and living with their parents

#42
post #3
post #2

The things that stand out to me about Japan: * 3rd largest economy. * 11th largest population (top 10 until recently, they basically tie with Mexico). * If you look at a table of countries by area, they are there. Even in the top half, thanks to places like Tuvalu. I think there is a very strong on-the-face-of-it argument that they just have too many people and not enough for them to do, economically speaking. If the…

That's not how economy works. There is no such thing in general as "too many people for the economy". "The economy" is the sum of goods and services produced and consumed. Everyone who lives consumes, and could easily consume more. The economy is generally limited by the ability to produce, and is generally limited by the number of working-age people to do the producing. Unemployment can be result of production being…

On HN when people discuss CS/privacy/programming the conversation is very thorough and interesting.

When the discussion is about economics (the topic I have studied at uni) most comments are just plain wrong and show a complete ignorance about the topic.

If one wants a counter argument to "too many people for the economy" one can start here : https://www.jstor.org/stable/2523702?seq=1

"Using data from the Current Population Survey, this paper describes the effect of the Mariel Boatlift of 1980 on the Miami labor market. The Mariel immigrants increased the Miami labor force by 7%, and the percentage increase in labor supply to less-skilled occupations and industries was even greater because most of the immigrants were relatively unskilled. Nevertheless, the Mariel influx appears to have had virtually no effect on the wages or unemployment rates of less-skilled workers, even among Cubans who had immigrated earlier. The author suggests that the ability of Miami's labor market to rapidly absorb the Mariel immigrants was largely owing to its adjustment to other large waves of immigrants in the two decades before the Mariel Boatlift."

There are many causes explaining unemployment some due to macroeconomic factors such as the monetary policy, others due to regulations of the labor market, others due to the lack of innovation, ..... They have been studied in depth. But "too many people for the economy" is not one of them.

Re: Japan’s lost generation is still jobless and living with their parents

#43
post #22
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So Malthus was in a sense right, as the “too many people” issue has showed up constantly since he wrote his stuff. And before anyone comes and tells me that “he was wrong because the Earth can sustain 8-9 billion humans, like it does right now”, I’ll say that there’s no way Earth’s actual ecosystem can sustain a major part of that population regularly eating beef, or regularly flying, or having scattered individual h…

Malthus’ argument fits your later points, but not why a sub-population is experiencing unemployment. Unlike food, jobs don’t grow on trees.

I'd say this is effectively the opposite of Malthus, since too much food (or rather too many products in general) kills jobs, and more fundamentally, kills the ability to earn rent from investments.

Re: Japan’s lost generation is still jobless and living with their parents

#44
post #13
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not how economy works. There is no such thing in general as "too many people for the economy". "The economy" is the sum of goods and services produced and consumed. Everyone who lives consumes, and could easily consume more. The economy is generally limited by the ability to produce, and is generally limited by the number of working-age people to do the producing. Unemployment can be result of production being…

> There is no such thing in general as "too many people for the economy". Sure there is. If nothing else, at some point you have more people than can be physically fed with the available land. Each additional person uses up a certain amount of resources. If the marginal resource gain of adding another worker is smaller than that; then economically there are too many people. There is no principle saying that cannot ha…

> If nothing else, at some point you have more people than can be physically fed with the available land.

The malthusian argument has been used since the old ages to argue for fewer people because of resource shortages (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism#Modern_Malthusia...). It has not eventuated.

The more people there are, the more minds there are at looking for solutions to problems, the more able the human race will be. But of course, these people need investment to obtain benefit - they can't just be empty mouths to feed.

Re: Japan’s lost generation is still jobless and living with their parents

#45
post #4

Japan has the problems now we, Western society will be facing in 20 years. This has been true since the 80s, so it's be nice to learn from it, and not follow it.

I don't understand why Western countries are not incentivising people to have children.

Most European countries give parents monthly stipends for children and even one-off payments for births, so that's.. a little incentive.

Re: Japan’s lost generation is still jobless and living with their parents

#46
post #4

Japan has the problems now we, Western society will be facing in 20 years. This has been true since the 80s, so it's be nice to learn from it, and not follow it.

I don't understand why Western countries are not incentivising people to have children.

It'd take a lot of propaganda to turn the ship around. Too many people are focused on short-term returns to collectively sign off on that.

Re: Japan’s lost generation is still jobless and living with their parents

#47
post #12

I've traveled a fair bit, and every part of Japan that I've been to feels like I've timed-traveled 20 years into a better future [compared to anywhere else I've been]. Yet there seems to be a fairly constant negative economic narrative about Japan (and this narrative seems to be decades old). What's the deal? Are my observations superficial, or are economists just annoyed that Japan doesn't fit their world-view (low…

> I've traveled a fair bit, and every part of Japan that I've been to feels like I've timed-traveled 20 years into a better future [compared to anywhere else I've been].

Have you been to Singapore?

Re: Japan’s lost generation is still jobless and living with their parents

#48
Presuming this will undermine birth rates (read: low or no population growth) Japan might be stuck in the cycle for years to come.

That said, many First World economies have leaded on immigration to back fill the gap of low birth-rates.

For examples:

In the USA, that's been a noticeable growth in Spanish-speaking residents.

In Germany and France, there's been growth in the Middle Eastern (mainly Muslim) residents. Needless to say, these shifts - economically necessary - have sociopolitical implications. It's possible these disconnects amplify as robotics and AI take over more and more jobs.

Japan? What would be Japan's source of new immigrants? How easily or not can they assimilate into that culture? Or is a relative lack of diversity a positive as the socio-political fabric in the West gets more and more frayed, and not just at the edges.

Re: Japan’s lost generation is still jobless and living with their parents

#50
The American obsession over living or not with parents sounds almost pathological to me. Being jobless is issue. Long term inability to find partner is issue. But, if you don't have partner, what exactly is the reason for moving to live alone and why is focus specifically on "omg someone lives with parents"?

I mean, multigenerational households were historical norm. It is not something super special that happened just now nor catastrophy. It does have disadvantages, especially when relationships are bad. But, if you get along then it is a good thing and pretty often makes living together rational decision.

Also, every time topic of loneliness comes out, hacker news is full of lonely people talking about how it sux. One way to be less lonely is to live with other people and keep close contact with family - assuming no one is narcissist or overly controlling or something like that.

Post reply on HN