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TSMC to Mass Produce Breakthrough 2nm Mbcfet Transistors in 2024

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11–20 of 66 posts

Re: TSMC to Mass Produce Breakthrough 2nm Mbcfet Transistors in 2024

#11

Is TSMC the only who is close to doing this? What about Samsung or Intel? Or research labs that do smaller runs?

I think that Intel is one step behind. They'll likely produce 7nm in 2024 which should be comparable with TSMC 5nm. But TSMC 5nm already available for Apple.

Intel is more like 3 steps behind, one of their shoes is missing and the other is missing laces

Re: TSMC to Mass Produce Breakthrough 2nm Mbcfet Transistors in 2024

#12

Is TSMC the only who is close to doing this? What about Samsung or Intel? Or research labs that do smaller runs?

I think that Intel is one step behind. They'll likely produce 7nm in 2024 which should be comparable with TSMC 5nm. But TSMC 5nm already available for Apple.

And that is even a bit of a high risk guess, probably closer to 2025. But yeah, pretty much. Is Intel even looking into Mbcfet?

Re: TSMC to Mass Produce Breakthrough 2nm Mbcfet Transistors in 2024

#13
Can someone ELI5 how TSMC is able to produce sub-7nm chips? I know quantum tunneling and the like becomes an issue at this size. I don't have a great physics background so I'm struggling to find a simple enough explanation for how they are dealing with this. Is it not as big a deal as I may think?

Re: TSMC to Mass Produce Breakthrough 2nm Mbcfet Transistors in 2024

#14
post #3

So is it safe to assume that Apple will book 100% of the first production runs for this new process as well?

I think it depends on price. At some point chips will cost too much for consumer electronics. You wouldn't want to buy iPhone with $1000 CPU.

Chips don't really work like that. 99% of the cost is in R&D and factory development then the cost per chip is pretty low, you just have to average in the R&D cost right? Apple sells ~ 200M units every year and prior developments get rolled into low cost products. Each new process probably leads Apple to make at least 500M devices. At scale you can spend 10s of billions on R&D and be spending less than $15-25 per chip.

Re: TSMC to Mass Produce Breakthrough 2nm Mbcfet Transistors in 2024

#15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that Intel is one step behind. They'll likely produce 7nm in 2024 which should be comparable with TSMC 5nm. But TSMC 5nm already available for Apple.

And that is even a bit of a high risk guess, probably closer to 2025. But yeah, pretty much. Is Intel even looking into Mbcfet?

Given Intel has stated now they'll consider outsourced fabs, it'd be a pretty sound bet.

Re: TSMC to Mass Produce Breakthrough 2nm Mbcfet Transistors in 2024

#16
post #13

Can someone ELI5 how TSMC is able to produce sub-7nm chips? I know quantum tunneling and the like becomes an issue at this size. I don't have a great physics background so I'm struggling to find a simple enough explanation for how they are dealing with this. Is it not as big a deal as I may think?

It's easy. You take a very small number, add the letters 'nm' to it, and then start sending out press-releases to the major media outlets.

That number has nearly zero bearing on the actual physical sizes of the chip's components.

The only people who know about the exact dimensions are the firms placing manufacturing contracts with TSMC.

Re: TSMC to Mass Produce Breakthrough 2nm Mbcfet Transistors in 2024

#17
post #3

So is it safe to assume that Apple will book 100% of the first production runs for this new process as well?

I think it depends on price. At some point chips will cost too much for consumer electronics. You wouldn't want to buy iPhone with $1000 CPU.

Price depends on yields, and 90% is pretty damned good.

Re: TSMC to Mass Produce Breakthrough 2nm Mbcfet Transistors in 2024

#18

Is TSMC the only who is close to doing this? What about Samsung or Intel? Or research labs that do smaller runs?

FWIW I thought Samsung trademarked the name MBCFET. Not saying that is in fact worth much, just that I know for a fact Samsung has been concrete about when this is going to be a process customers can use.

On paper I don't think it's risky to say everyone is looking at GAAFETs and MBCFETs, they're the evolution of finFETs (okay, we have the fin, what about more than one fin? Okay, how about the channel is surrounded by the gate (Gate-All-Around)?) How far along is everyone to making them commercially available with good yields, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

I think the surprising thing to me was TSMC has thus far (as of like a month ago) been of the mind "nah, finFETs are fine". But keep in mind, that was for their 3nm node, which this isn't.

https://www.anandtech.com/show/16041/where-are-my-gaafets-ts...

Re: TSMC to Mass Produce Breakthrough 2nm Mbcfet Transistors in 2024

#19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that Intel is one step behind. They'll likely produce 7nm in 2024 which should be comparable with TSMC 5nm. But TSMC 5nm already available for Apple.

Intel is more like 3 steps behind, one of their shoes is missing and the other is missing laces

Having lived inside similar but much smaller dramas, it smells to me like Intel is titrating bad news.

There was a goal. The goal became PR. Someone in management began to believe the PR, and turned it into a promise, predicated on 'and then a miracle occurs' (the engineers figure out how to do some things that haven't been done before). The engineers keep trying to explain how nobody has done this before because you can't. To do so involves violating the laws of physics or Information Theory. Anyone who cracks this problem deserves a Nobel nomination, so that probably isn't us.

Middle management is stuck in the middle because someone has made promises we can't keep, and they either make it worse or help cover it up by playing for time.

You either solve a different problem that has similar behavior (or at least, until researchers discover Meltdown), or you slowly reset expectations until people are chronically grumpy but nobody is yelling.

Re: TSMC to Mass Produce Breakthrough 2nm Mbcfet Transistors in 2024

#20
post #13

Can someone ELI5 how TSMC is able to produce sub-7nm chips? I know quantum tunneling and the like becomes an issue at this size. I don't have a great physics background so I'm struggling to find a simple enough explanation for how they are dealing with this. Is it not as big a deal as I may think?

To make an analogy: I think a good way to think about it is that the 7nm node doesn't actually produce chips with 7nm features, it uses a "knife" (actually it's a lithography process) which is able to cut things as small as 7nm . That enables it to be more precise than a bigger "knife" so even though the size of the chip features is >7nm they are still able to be smaller than features cut with a 10nm "knife".

I don't actually know anything about chip production. But that's what I've picked up from HN.

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