Almost 90 percent of NYC bars and restaurants couldn’t pay August rent • Hacker News Board

Re: Almost 90 percent of NYC bars and restaurants couldn’t pay August rent

#321

Post by aogaili » Thu, Sep 24, 2020, 3:24 AM UTC

RhysU wrote: post #319

aogaili wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is an interesting perspective. But my understanding that that human society were mostly hunter gatherers, with little resources to speak of and there is no concept of capital ownership and accumulation since there is nothing material to accumulate, it is only after the agricultural revolution (ownership of land and slaves) and industrial revolution (ownership of machines and oil) and information revolution (owne…

Kings and pharaohs accumulated capital even if they didn't use the word. We're something like 10,000 years into amassing resources at scale in the hands of the few. This growth coincides with states, incidentally, and is the subject of the very cool book https://www.amazon.com/Against-Grain-History-Earliest-States... . That book combined with https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/022647822X (as a state, like a dog, must com…

I agree, I also don't see fairly short reversal either, but I do see a future possibility.

I think I get your point now, you're saying that the current inequality existed since humans started accumulating resources (age of kings and pharaohs) and the strive for more economically equal societies is a very recent goal.

Where I think we differ though, and correct me if I'm wrong, that you seem to implicitly imply that the current inequality is the natural order of things, given it's prevalence in modern human history. However I think it is the opposite, in that it is a recent trend, yes, 10k years is recent relative to 300K+ years of humanity, and there is nothing really natural about it, it is a byproduct of an aging human created socioeconomic systems, and not some physical law of nature, and it could and should be improved, that I think is the critical task of modern economists (and I'd love to read some books on that topic if any).

I'll start reading the suggested books, I enjoyed the argument you presented because it puts the current inequality in the larger historical context.

Re: Almost 90 percent of NYC bars and restaurants couldn’t pay August rent

#322

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Sep 24, 2020, 1:45 PM UTC

just-juan-post wrote: post #162

dehrmann wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder how much people changed their behavior in sunbelt states in July when cases were on the rise. I don't remember lots of new restrictions or lockdowns. New cases just kinda peaked. I'm cautiously optimistic that the past week in the US is a blip from Labor day. Both peaks and troughs are improved from two weeks ago, but up from the week before.

There were supposed to be spikes after spring break, Memorial Day, 4th of July, Labor Day, back to school, the Sturgis bike rally. There were a blip...if that. Rather than biting our nails at daily numbers it's time to allow for individual choice and remove the government restrictions. It's clear that the virus is not nearly as potent as people think and we're prolonging this due to fear and politics - not science or…

[deleted]

Re: Almost 90 percent of NYC bars and restaurants couldn’t pay August rent

#323

Post by disgruntledphd2 » Thu, Sep 24, 2020, 3:37 PM UTC

Terretta wrote: post #320

disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, the US is in kindof a weird position with respect to Covid 19. It's a perfect storm of 1) good testing (at least better than the developing world) and 2) inconsistent and ineffective responses to Covid. I don't dispute that the US has performed poorly here, but the 25%/5% stat needs to be contextualised by the fact that other countries who have done really poorly (e.g. Brazil), have much less testing than…

Deaths have nothing to do with testing. "We can observe trends from the number of deaths reported each year, on a weekly basis. When we see large deviations in the numbers for a time period, we call that excess deaths. Looking at 2020 since March, the raw number of excess deaths is 200,000 more people than a normal year. When we try to understand that, COVID-19 is the most rational and likely explanation. If you don'…

Excess mortality has nothing to do with testing, you are entirely correct there.

However, most Covid deaths are counted as deaths post a positive test. Therefore, the tests provide the denominator for potential deaths.

The US has lots of testing (though probably not enough) and an overall poor response to the pandemic, causing the 25%/5% statistic, and hence my point.

Re: Almost 90 percent of NYC bars and restaurants couldn’t pay August rent

#324

Post by harambae » Thu, Sep 24, 2020, 7:54 PM UTC

jacobolus wrote: post #195

serial_dev wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we can all see that some governments responded well and others did not. Can we, though? We are not even half time yet (most likely). How are we going to judge a government in the beginning of a pandemic as if the pandemic was already over? Maybe what looks like a poor strategy now will turn out to be the best later. Same true for the economic bailouts, some countries went harder than others, and it's not yet clear…

What is the anomaly? Sweden has done substantially worse than all of its neighbors in both lives/health and economic impact. Which was exactly what many people predicted.

It's not clear Sweden has done substantially worse than its neighbors [0] and regardless we're not through this and different countries and counting a number of things differently.

5 years from now when we look at the death certificates from nations with reliable death certificate records, we might have a better idea.

[0] https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-09-21/sweden...

Re: Almost 90 percent of NYC bars and restaurants couldn’t pay August rent

#325

Post by RhysU » Fri, Sep 25, 2020, 12:55 AM UTC

aogaili wrote: post #321

RhysU wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kings and pharaohs accumulated capital even if they didn't use the word. We're something like 10,000 years into amassing resources at scale in the hands of the few. This growth coincides with states, incidentally, and is the subject of the very cool book https://www.amazon.com/Against-Grain-History-Earliest-States... . That book combined with https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/022647822X (as a state, like a dog, must com…

I agree, I also don't see fairly short reversal either, but I do see a future possibility. I think I get your point now, you're saying that the current inequality existed since humans started accumulating resources (age of kings and pharaohs) and the strive for more economically equal societies is a very recent goal. Where I think we differ though, and correct me if I'm wrong, that you seem to implicitly imply that t…

You are spot on in where we differ.

I take only the 10,000 year historical view because I see the rise of states as a massive regime shift in human society. I don't think humans will go pre-state ever again. I can see us defeating death well before we defeat taxes. Taxes imply some power concentration which is equivalent to wealth concentration and therefore the existence of material power/wealth inequality.

I don't have any books to suggest on modern economics. I would gladly take any recommendations that you have.

Re: Almost 90 percent of NYC bars and restaurants couldn’t pay August rent

#326

Post by aogaili » Fri, Sep 25, 2020, 7:22 AM UTC

RhysU wrote: post #325

aogaili wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, I also don't see fairly short reversal either, but I do see a future possibility. I think I get your point now, you're saying that the current inequality existed since humans started accumulating resources (age of kings and pharaohs) and the strive for more economically equal societies is a very recent goal. Where I think we differ though, and correct me if I'm wrong, that you seem to implicitly imply that t…

You are spot on in where we differ. I take only the 10,000 year historical view because I see the rise of states as a massive regime shift in human society. I don't think humans will go pre-state ever again. I can see us defeating death well before we defeat taxes. Taxes imply some power concentration which is equivalent to wealth concentration and therefore the existence of material power/wealth inequality. I don't…

That is a very good point as well, I'm now onboard with your perspective, I think it useful way to look at the current inequality trend. Let me try to rephrase your points (and correct me if I'm wrong):

1. The establishment of the state, in its most primitive form around 10k years ago, mark a significant evolution in humanity history and could be considered the starting point of the concentration of power and by extension economical resources, thus the birth of the capitalist. (This was a good takeaway for me).

2. Given the long history of this economical structure and inequality; the concentration of resources in the hands of few, one could conclude: a) the current trend toward equality is recent and modern attempts (I'm onboard with this as well now) b) the reversal of the inequality will not be easy in the short-term, it is built-in with the state which is here to stay. (I agree with this statement as well)

However, what I'm thinking now, is why some modern societies/states (like in europe) seem to be way more economically balanced than others (say the US)? doesn't that weaken point 2.b? are they developing better economical systems? What do you think?

Re: Almost 90 percent of NYC bars and restaurants couldn’t pay August rent

#327

Post by RhysU » Fri, Sep 25, 2020, 10:33 AM UTC

aogaili wrote: post #326

RhysU wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are spot on in where we differ. I take only the 10,000 year historical view because I see the rise of states as a massive regime shift in human society. I don't think humans will go pre-state ever again. I can see us defeating death well before we defeat taxes. Taxes imply some power concentration which is equivalent to wealth concentration and therefore the existence of material power/wealth inequality. I don't…

That is a very good point as well, I'm now onboard with your perspective, I think it useful way to look at the current inequality trend. Let me try to rephrase your points (and correct me if I'm wrong): 1. The establishment of the state, in its most primitive form around 10k years ago, mark a significant evolution in humanity history and could be considered the starting point of the concentration of power and by exte…

That's a nice summary and better said than I did it. I don't claim the state is an evolution, just different and impossible to undo once the concept is brought into existence. Think nuclear technology. Nuclear can't be undone either, at least in the knowledge sense and someone striving for weaponry. (No claims on nuclear as good or bad.)

European examples do not weaken 2.b. There are still large wealth disparities to be found.

For example, don't mix up income equality for wealth equality when considering Sweden: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_inequality_in_Sweden

I don't know enough to make claims about European economic setups.

Re: Almost 90 percent of NYC bars and restaurants couldn’t pay August rent

#328

Post by aogaili » Fri, Sep 25, 2020, 1:06 PM UTC

RhysU wrote: post #327

aogaili wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a very good point as well, I'm now onboard with your perspective, I think it useful way to look at the current inequality trend. Let me try to rephrase your points (and correct me if I'm wrong): 1. The establishment of the state, in its most primitive form around 10k years ago, mark a significant evolution in humanity history and could be considered the starting point of the concentration of power and by exte…

That's a nice summary and better said than I did it. I don't claim the state is an evolution, just different and impossible to undo once the concept is brought into existence. Think nuclear technology. Nuclear can't be undone either, at least in the knowledge sense and someone striving for weaponry. (No claims on nuclear as good or bad.) European examples do not weaken 2.b. There are still large wealth disparities to…

"For example, don't mix up income equality for wealth equality when considering Sweden: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_inequality_in_Sweden"

Another good point. I think this is sufficient for me to adopt your view point. Thanks for this discussion, I learnt something new about economic inequality.