Earlier quoted context omitted.
Modern societies run on heat engines, and nuclear power is still a heat engine just with a carbon free source of heat. It's possible to run a carbon free modern society without drastic change in energy use, through using nuclear energy - France has done so successfully for decades. By comparison proposals to use renewables almost invariably involve immense amounts of energy storage which is nowhere near deliverable w…
I want to add to this because I think it is also something the gp is missing. Decarbonizing the country/world is about much more than cars and electricity. Currently it is only 60% of the problem[0]. That, and we have NO zero carbon power source, if you include lifetime emissions . None. Zip. Nada. So part of the answer is to get some of the other 40% to be included in electricity. That's things like electric stoves,…
Ultra Safe Nuclear
431–440 of 536 posts
Re: Ultra Safe Nuclear
#432Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't know, and I have been wondering whether much of the evident pro-nuclear lobbying recently (it seems apparent on many threads here related to energy generation) might be due to the nuclear industry being in serious threat of becoming obsolete. I've harped on about this many times before, but the levelized cost of energy[1] for renewables like solar and wind power is substantially cheaper than nuclear power now…
I'm a little disappointed that the Levelized cost of energy link does not include, you know, the levelized cost of various energy sources. Also, it doesn't include the number of hours needed to find and debate a place where you can actually put down renewables. Places using the most power (those most densely populated, like the Netherlands where I come from) have enough space for nuclear reactors to keep the country…
* https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.... (US Energy Information Administration; see Table 1b & Table 2 on page 7 & 8)
* https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... (UK Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy; see Table 6 on page 29)
I hear you regarding regional and national concerns, but if anything I think that reinforces another argument for renewables: they are relatively easy to construct and decommission over shorter timescales if political and local pressure demands it, compared to nuclear power plants which could become long-term causes of disgruntlement if misplaced.
My hope would be that groups of countries see energy provision as a shared problem that they can co-operate on (in the true sense of a shared grid), so that potential reliance on energy import if needed in the Netherlands wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. I'd imagine (and would be interested to know if) the Netherlands is relatively advanced in terms of home and business energy efficiency and would have plenty to offer there in return.
Re: Ultra Safe Nuclear
#433You have a 30 bar helium pressure vessel and heat exchangers etc. I wonder how much it's going to leak.
Not saying it's bad, just interested in these questions. Some other designs have these issues in focus.
Re: Ultra Safe Nuclear
#434Earlier quoted context omitted.
>it costs 3-10x what the equivalent generating capacity in renewables would cost Except renewables can't actually replace fossil fuels. They need baseload provided by fossil fuels to be viable. They are also defuse energy sources, and so require huge surface area and lots of materials for collectors - not great for a growing world, both in population and per capita energy needs. Oh, they are variable across days, sea…
> Except renewables can't actually replace fossil fuels. They need baseload provided by fossil fuels to be viable. False. Renewables could get to 100% of the grid. A key is using hydrogen for the last 10% or so. This is not currently competitive with fossil fuel, but then neither is nuclear.
Where is this 10% coming from? Solar doesn't work at all between sundown and sunrise. Similarly wind also doesn't align with energy demand either.
Hydrogen isn't the answer either. It is incredibly inefficient to produce via electrolysis, meaning you would have to massively over-provison your collectors.
>This is not currently competitive with fossil fuel, but then neither is nuclear.
Why are you focusing on price? Renewables don't work. They could be free and you'd still be building natural gas plants. This why no nation is actually powered by renewables. When an article claims a nation has reached 100% renewable energy it's always geothermal or hydro - which require the right geography.
Re: Ultra Safe Nuclear
#435Earlier quoted context omitted.
So, what? Just use hydrogen like a gigantic grid sized battery? Also, nuclear is only not competitive due to strangling regulation, not fundamentals.
Burn the hydrogen in combustion turbines, just like natural gas. You repeat an excuse, but nuclear builds have failed, and continue to fail, not because of regulation, but because of the high unforgiving complexity of nuclear power plants. The post mortems at huge cost overruns point to management failures, not new regulations sprung out of nowhere.
That simple? Anyone in the world actually using hydrogen in this way?
You can dissmis nuclear all you want, but doesn't change the fact that renewables (outside of hydro/geothermal for which you need special geography) do not work. There is no nation on this planet that is powered by renewables. There is no nation on this planet that is planning to be powered by renewables. Germany believes in renewables so much they are signing multi-decade contracts to ship gas from Russia and building new pipelines!
Re: Ultra Safe Nuclear
#436Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't know, and I have been wondering whether much of the evident pro-nuclear lobbying recently (it seems apparent on many threads here related to energy generation) might be due to the nuclear industry being in serious threat of becoming obsolete. I've harped on about this many times before, but the levelized cost of energy[1] for renewables like solar and wind power is substantially cheaper than nuclear power now…
> have been wondering whether much of the evident pro-nuclear lobbying recently (it seems apparent on many threads here related to energy generation) I think you are misunderstanding the selection bias. We're on HN, the selection bias here is that people tend to be more tech savvy and more informed. We have nuclear scientists here. You typically see acidburnNSA commenting in all these posts. I myself did radiation sh…
Simultaneously - and partly thanks to that skew - I think this is an influential forum and the likelihood for discussions and radical ideas that are shared here to shape real-world policy is outsized.
I also agree that experts will understand the safety properties of their field better than anyone else.
The risk is the skip-level that HN introduces. Rather than those experts informing policy decision-making directly, we have an easy, accessible, open (all beneficial properties in themselves) forum where decision-makers-and-influers could cherry-pick technology tangents they like the sound of, and likely find rational-sounding support for them.
As someone who is risk-averse (which includes optimism that society can collectively steer away from the worst effects of climate change, and also avoid future populations being left to deal with the problems of long-term nuclear waste under world conditions that we can't yet predict), and someone who believes that cost, simplicity and reduction of negative externalities are positive indicators, renewables seem like the way to go, and so I think it's worth keeping that line of argument present.
You're correct that I shouldn't assume that any of the discussion is industry-led; an assumption that it's genuine technology interest is fair. It can be hard to determine where (and if) the distinction exists when the stakes are high.
Re: Ultra Safe Nuclear
#437Earlier quoted context omitted.
>it costs 3-10x what the equivalent generating capacity in renewables would cost Except renewables can't actually replace fossil fuels. They need baseload provided by fossil fuels to be viable. They are also defuse energy sources, and so require huge surface area and lots of materials for collectors - not great for a growing world, both in population and per capita energy needs. Oh, they are variable across days, sea…
Baseload is the last thing renewables need. Baseload displaces renewables because you cannot regulate baseload fast enough. Just take a look at Germany and their coal fueled baseload. It has slowed down the Energiewende and made electricity expensive because consumers have to pay for curtailed renewables via the EEG surcharge. Imagine building a renewable energy infrastructure and then throwing out the electricity it…
Like what? What's the mix?
And why is nobody doing it?
>It's just not a practical concern for the next 20 years.
Because they use coal, natural gas, nuclear, hydro or geothermal ... You know power sources that can actually power a modern economy.
>Medium term storage needs are trivially met with power to gas (both hydrogen and methane), short term storage needs can be solved via batteries, compressed air or thermal storage.
You keep using words like 'trivial' when no nation is actually building this kind of infrastructure. No nation even has plans to build this infrastructure.
>All of these technologies have been available for a long
Yes. Therefore it should make you question why they aren't being used. Perhaps they aren't because they don't work at grid-scale?
Re: Ultra Safe Nuclear
#438Earlier quoted context omitted.
>it costs 3-10x what the equivalent generating capacity in renewables would cost Except renewables can't actually replace fossil fuels. They need baseload provided by fossil fuels to be viable. They are also defuse energy sources, and so require huge surface area and lots of materials for collectors - not great for a growing world, both in population and per capita energy needs. Oh, they are variable across days, sea…
There are quite some MWh batteries coming online in California. Storage is progressing
If you scale that up by several orders of magnitude, you may just provide enough to power a small city for a few hours.
Re: Ultra Safe Nuclear
#439Earlier quoted context omitted.
I can't help you if you don't even understand the scale of renewability of resources such as oil and gas, the ratio of energy extracted to energy put into the various kinds of machines that produce what we need to keep our energy consumption up, the limits to energy extraction for solar power, the lack of predictability and controllability of energy sources other than gas-oil-coal-nuclear, and the CO2-related effects…
"Intermittency angst" is a classic pro nuclear, anti renewable propaganda strategy which is overused to the point it becomes boring. At some point the only reasonable answer is to just roll your eyes. Ok, so lets say renewables was the worst bet all along because storage is impossible. Renewables will only generate 80% of all electricity then. We'll have to use some gas to cover the rest. Would you consider this to b…
Again this is absolutely bonkers that people would start thinking that being pragmatically for nuclear is being against renewables, because I AM NOT. I am entirely for the investment into research and development around renewables, I am entirely for the replacement of as much of the coal used by renewables, I entirely for a world where we would benefit greatly from renewables. But stop mistaking nuclear for oil on your self-inflicted side of things, because nuclear CAN carry this transition without continuing to wreck the environment, and oil-gas-coal could do that while entirely messing it up, but renewables alone absolutely cannot.
And by the way I have no problem with intermittency of access to power, I am actually open to the idea. But why try to sell that idea to everyone when they don't actually have to compromise on their consumption if nuclear carries the production? Instead of calling it a day by saying that it's an "intermittency angst", have empathy for those who would indeed be worried about it and find SOLID arguments to explain why you seem to know that it's either not a problem or that it is a problem worth living with (or in the case of energy availability, without).
For what it's worth, here's the combined 17-countries European output of wind power at a resolution of about a day on the scale of about a year in 2017[0]. Tell me how that fits nicely with the high constant consumption of any given country, and how you'll install enough of these in places where you get a relative 10-100x more power (i.e. offshore) without having to fight people, and tell me how you'd do that without tremendous energy and material consumption in the making. And then tell me how sea currents aren't likely to change due to climate change and make your efforts moot at an unpredictable rate[1][2] for not just wind but solar too.
AGAIN, as in EVERY response I made, I am pro-renewables. I'm also pragmatic about their role in addressing the immediate issues with CO2 emissions and what physics will pragmatically allow us to reliably extract from them at the level of the world. Local initiatives to develop something around an area that steadily produces renewable energy and is robust against unpredictable weather pattern changes AND doesn't cost an arm and a leg (without the emotional investments of VCs lowering the $$$ needed) AND does not create substantial CO2 emissions during the lifetime of the product, I'm 1000% for that.
For the maintainable, long-term, high-output power, it's called nuclear and it has led to an order of magnitude less deaths of ecosystems and people in the world, even when including the headlines-making Fukushima and Chernobyl, than just about one or two dams failing in Europe the same century. For a power output that is significant enough that it can offset the gigantic energy density that oil and gas offered the world for its development during the last ~200 years, without creating more CO2 after its construction and without having to move every time the wind changes yet again.
[0] https://i.imgur.com/HsJJ1NE.jpg
[1] https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2950/arctic-ice-melt-is-changi...
[2] https://insideclimatenews.org/news/07052018/atlantic-ocean-c...
Re: Ultra Safe Nuclear
#440Earlier quoted context omitted.
Everyone is building heavily subsidized windmill. And nobody is building reactors[1] mostly because it's really unpopular (which it pretty much deserves IMHO after decades of shady practices) but it's not a matter of technical merit (and it's never the case). [1] except those who do, China leading the pack.
I'd suggest looking through Lazard's levelized cost of energy slide decks. The unsubsidized price of renewables is indeed substantially less than nuclear. Next look at the time scales for building new nuclear. Then look at the trend lines in the cost of storage, particularly utility scale lithium batteries. You don't have to be a genius to realize this makes new nuclear a bad bet purely on the finances. Even if you w…
You are off by more than one order of magnitude! For non-hydro renewable to be self sufficient, you need between 200h and 600h of storage[1]. So to replace a 1300MW reactor, you need 3000MW of renewable power (assuming 33% load factor, which is a good one for renewable) AND at least 200GWh of storage! The storage cost just dwarfs the cost of everything else (and because it won't last 40 years, you'd need to pay for it at least twice!).
Solar and wind power are financially interesting because: the grid handles the load variations, subsidies, and the financial markets financing short-term projects easily compared to bigger one expected to run for 60 years.
Non-hydro renewable are nice when you want to reduce fossil fuel consumption in a grid where most electricity comes from fossil fuel (and ideally not too much coal), but on a purely technical standpoint, they are no match for nuclear. The thing are never purely technical though, and overall I'm sceptical about the future of nuclear.
[1]: https://bourrasque.info/articles/20180116-moulins-%C3%A0-ven... (in French)