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Ultra Safe Nuclear

usnc.com

421–430 of 536 posts

Re: Ultra Safe Nuclear

#421
post #237

Two interesting things to see here, of many. They are really planning the sites to be temporary compared to the solar/wind/ and other industrial power plants that have little or no plan for returning their sites to the original virgin soil. And two, they seem to use a molten salt loop like in concentrated solar to meet variable demand without changing the power level of the reactor, which you can't really do because…

And unlike a natural gas plant, it costs 3-10x what the equivalent generating capacity in renewables would cost. I come to post this Same Thing every time this discussion comes up. It's not about safety. Everyone serious understand nuclear, even current technologies, is "safe enough" to be useful to build out. Nuclear is outrageously expensive , though. And new reactor designs don't seem to be making much progress on…

The growth numbers currently show that for every extra watt of renewable energy consumed globally, 10 more watts of fossil fuels get consumed. (https://ourworldindata.org/energy#energy-consumption-by-sour...)

Looking at the multiple data sources at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source, there is several patterns that should be fairly clear. Gas and oil is very cheap to build, and the market price they can get out per generated MWh is higher.

> Look, I think nuclear is fine. But as a numerate and earnest environmentalist, I don't see where the case for it lies

Lets put this is in numerical estimated numbers.

An investor builds a wind farm. On average they produce a MWh that costed $35. For the period which the energy was produced they managed to sell it for $85 netting them a profit of $50.

An other investor builds a natural gas power plant. On average they produce a MWh that costed $45. Since they can choose when to produce it they managed to get an average price of $150, netting them a profit of $105.

As a balance sheet, $35 is a cheaper price than $45 when producing 1 MWh. $50 is however much less than $105, making the more expensive energy source the more profitable choice of investment.

Cost is just half the picture in any commercial venture. The daily energy price for 1 MWh varies heavily based on demand and supply. $50 per MWh one day could be $500 a few days later when supply is low and demands is high.

I would also describe myself as numerate and earnest environmentalist, and my view is similar to your but with a clear distinction. Right now we must stop burning fossil fuels. If it cost $45 to produce and they can earn $150, investors who only care about money will continue to invest in fossil fuels. That must stop. The climate will have won a partial victory when the investment into fossil fueled power plants are a proven poor investment, and then we can move on to the transport sector.

Re: Ultra Safe Nuclear

#422
post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And unlike a natural gas plant, it costs 3-10x what the equivalent generating capacity in renewables would cost. I come to post this Same Thing every time this discussion comes up. It's not about safety. Everyone serious understand nuclear, even current technologies, is "safe enough" to be useful to build out. Nuclear is outrageously expensive , though. And new reactor designs don't seem to be making much progress on…

>it costs 3-10x what the equivalent generating capacity in renewables would cost Except renewables can't actually replace fossil fuels. They need baseload provided by fossil fuels to be viable. They are also defuse energy sources, and so require huge surface area and lots of materials for collectors - not great for a growing world, both in population and per capita energy needs. Oh, they are variable across days, sea…

Baseload is the last thing renewables need. Baseload displaces renewables because you cannot regulate baseload fast enough. Just take a look at Germany and their coal fueled baseload. It has slowed down the Energiewende and made electricity expensive because consumers have to pay for curtailed renewables via the EEG surcharge. Imagine building a renewable energy infrastructure and then throwing out the electricity it generates because coal buddies get priority treatment. If anything Germany needs to get rid of any legacy baseload plants and take advantage of more flexible power plants like natural gas plants.

> Oh, they are variable across days, seasons and inter-year periods, but there is no battery technology coming that is able to store even enough power to a moderately sized city for a few minutes, much less the weeks it would need.

There is no need for "battery technology". This strawman keeps getting repeated just like crappy quadrocopters being used as killer weapons. It's because docile consumers can't see past their own little bubble and imagine that industrial giants also buy all their stuff at the supermarket.

No, you use an entire mix of different technologies and strategies to solve this problem. I don't want to repeat myself but seasonal differences are usually solved by curtailment. If winter needs more power you build enough plants for winter and then curtail the excess energy in summer. Medium term storage needs are trivially met with power to gas (both hydrogen and methane), short term storage needs can be solved via batteries, compressed air or thermal storage. All of these technologies have been available for a long time. The reality is that renewables can easily reach 80% generation without any storage investments at all so practically no country on earth has bothered to invest into additional storage, not because technologies are missing. It's just not a practical concern for the next 20 years.

Re: Ultra Safe Nuclear

#423
post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Serious question: what happens when you take one of these fuel pellets and blow it up and disperse it in the atmosphere / water supply, either accidentally or on purpose? Hmm, nothing? There are already billions of tons of uranium dissolved in seawater (there are actually efforts to try to "mine" uranium from seawater), why would a few grams more matter? As for fission products, humanity has made hundreds of atmosp…

Chernobyl caused the near permanent evacuation of a nearby city, and nearly poisoned the water supply for millions. Not a good example if you’re trying to argue a release of fission products is no big deal. I would like to understand exactly if/how this reactor design gets around the risks inherent to explosions of radioactive fuel. If it’s not a problem then why does the marketing take pains to say it will never lea…

The question of you asked and which I answered was what if we take one fuel pellet and disperse it.

I never said Chernobyl wasn't bad (heck, I called it a disaster for a reason!). But that was tons of spent fuel (rather than the few grams being contained in one fuel pellet) being blown out of the reactor building due to the steam explosion, or going up in smoke during the subsequent fires, and even that was far from the end of the world.

In this case, I guess marketing takes pains, because one of the main ideas of this fuel type is to make them even safer, even during severe accident scenarios. Is it absolutely fool proof? Of course not; you shouldn't grind up the spent fuel and inhale the dust, for instance.

Re: Ultra Safe Nuclear

#424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Except renewables can't actually replace fossil fuels. They need baseload provided by fossil fuels to be viable. False. Renewables could get to 100% of the grid. A key is using hydrogen for the last 10% or so. This is not currently competitive with fossil fuel, but then neither is nuclear.

I'm not an expert in this, but isn't this just a really extra lossy type of battery? Hydrogen takes energy to create, so if you're creating hydrogen from renewable energy sources during peak load, you have to go energy -> hydrogen -> energy with efficiency losses both ways. I remain unimpressed by hydrogen, as it seems to only be practical if you don't any other options for existing stores of energy. For instance a l…

The benefit of power to gas is that most countries already have an existing system that can both store and burn it. The efficiency is low but the necessary infrastructure investments are also incredibly low compared to building battery based energy storage. It is also an unavoidable step if you want to invest into carbon capture in the future. Excess methane can be exported. Suddenly even a resource poor nation like Germany could become an energy exporter.

When you consider that renewable share in % per day in Germany follows a normal distribution then you realize that there are only a few days that actually need to utilize hydrogen or methane to generate power.

Re: Ultra Safe Nuclear

#425
post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And unlike a natural gas plant, it costs 3-10x what the equivalent generating capacity in renewables would cost. I come to post this Same Thing every time this discussion comes up. It's not about safety. Everyone serious understand nuclear, even current technologies, is "safe enough" to be useful to build out. Nuclear is outrageously expensive , though. And new reactor designs don't seem to be making much progress on…

And renewables are cheap because peaker plants exist, which allows the price of storage to be externalized to the peaker plants.

Well, you also have to consider that many gas plants emit less CO2 than coal plats. You're going to need them either way because it's the fastest way to reduce the CO2 footprint of your nation's electricity mix.

Re: Ultra Safe Nuclear

#426
post #306
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have to weigh the waste disposal and storage costs against the external costs of other fuel sources. What is the "cleanup cost" of carbon emissions from fossil fuels? Even wind power has a waste disposal cost; the blades are often made of toxic material and must be buried when they wear out. The scary radioactivity of long lived isotopes can be dealt with via geological storage. There is plenty of rock underneath…

Do you have a source for blades often being made of toxic material? The Bloomberg article a poster linked above makes it seem like it's completely safe to store the blades in landfill: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-02-05/wind-turb...

They are usually made of fibreglass or carbon fibre. Somewhat nasty and almost impossible to recycle, but also fairly inert.

Of all the environmental challenges humanity faces, landfilling old wind turbine blades is quite a long way down the list.

Re: Ultra Safe Nuclear

#427
post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, exactly. Even though it is costly to deal with, per kilogram, there is very little of it when compared to amount of energy produced. An atomic plant might use couple dozen tonnes of fuel which is peanuts compared to the amount of waste from coal power plant. There are no technical problems with storage that we can't solve. The biggest problem is that nobody wants it around.

There is no problem at all. Even a nuclear disaster is less harmful than the pollution we currently releasing in the atmosphere.

Nuclear disasters reduce the available budget to build more nuclear power plants. Even with the assumption of a $30 billion dollar nuclear plant Japan could have enough money to build dozens of those if it didn't have to clean up Fukushima.

Re: Ultra Safe Nuclear

#428

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it's not a problem. There's actually very little of it. It occupies a volume the footprint of a football field and 10 yards high [1]. Storing it is pretty foolproof: bury it in an area with no aquifer. The main risk of contamination is getting into the groundwater. If there's no groundwater the risk of contamination is eliminated even if the containers decay over time. And lastly, it doesn't make sense to bur…

I wouldnt necessarily agree. It needs to be stored for a time that is longer than any single civilization has survived. Its pretty arrogant to assume we will still be around for that amount of time. This source pretty heavily influenced my change of opinion on nuclears efficacy https://www.pbs.org/video/independent-lens-containment/

I'm really confused. If our civilization is gone why would we care about nuclear waste? Animals have existed for hundreds of millions of years and they do fine even in Chernobyl. There is enough time left in the universe for this stuff to decay. What we have to make sure is that it doesn't hurt us while we are still alive.

Re: Ultra Safe Nuclear

#429
post #418

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well. We also have the capacity to destroy all life on earth many times over. When the carrying capacity of earth does collapse it will likely be sudden. Food insecurity will do it quick. We are only like 6 meals away from total chaos at the best of times.

Many times over? I doubt it, if you are talking about nuclear weapons. There's no way we could punch through all the ice at the poles to get any microscopic life that might live under there, and in a standard nuclear war nothing would touch them anyway. Nuclear winter (if that's still thought to happen in a likely scenario) might not even get all the surface life.

There are also people on this planet that are actively preparing against such a scenario. If anything is going to kill life (as we know it) on the planet it would be humans who just shrug and turn up their AC after a +4°C global temperature change and try their best to go to something ridiculous like +9°C as if destroying the planet was some sort of sport.

I'm pretty optimistic that we can avoid such a scenario but you never know...

Re: Ultra Safe Nuclear

#430
post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is absolutely no "physics" that goes into those postings. It's just some gut feelings. I've come across this at least a dozen times, with people just sure that "physics" says something, but there is no physical principle that requires we decrease energy use to power the entire world with renewables and storage and possibly hydrogen or other synthetic carbon fuels. We can power all of the developing world at Wes…

I can't help you if you don't even understand the scale of renewability of resources such as oil and gas, the ratio of energy extracted to energy put into the various kinds of machines that produce what we need to keep our energy consumption up, the limits to energy extraction for solar power, the lack of predictability and controllability of energy sources other than gas-oil-coal-nuclear, and the CO2-related effects…

"Intermittency angst" is a classic pro nuclear, anti renewable propaganda strategy which is overused to the point it becomes boring. At some point the only reasonable answer is to just roll your eyes. Ok, so lets say renewables was the worst bet all along because storage is impossible. Renewables will only generate 80% of all electricity then. We'll have to use some gas to cover the rest. Would you consider this to be a failure, even if it's cheaper than nuclear? Your fridge isn't going to stop working continuously. It's a strawman. It was never on the negotiation table in the first place.
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