Live data from Hacker News

This electrical transmission tower has a problem

twitter.com

311–320 of 479 posts

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#311
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe whoever setup the dominoes behind the first one shares the blame as well... There was a famous story here a couple years ago here where a mountain biker lit some toilet paper on fire and caused half a hillside to go up in flames. Negligence, sure. Stupidity, no doubt. But it's also dry here in the summer, and that hasn't changed year after year. So sure, I guess, let it be the weather's fault or global warmin…

No. I think the point is can we change our forestry practices. Ignoring the root causes and blaming the first dominoe isn’t helpful because there will always be some dumb thing to set off a massive fire. We have been assigning blame - is that effective at stopping the fires? We do blameless post-martens as a best practice in engineering so that when we don’t have constant outages of critical internet infrastructure a…

It's hard to have a "blameless postmortem" when 86 people are dead.

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#312
post #60

This is definitely a failure on PG&E's part, but I'm still not sure how much sense it makes to assign them blame for this fire. The environment they're operating in is somewhat ridiculous - the forest is so dry and overgrown that pretty much any flame source will start a fire large enough to burn a huge area; this specific tower failure is basically just the thing that revealed a much larger issue. With proper engine…

Yes, they have blame. Yes, they diverted profits from maintenance. Yes, they could have made less money and done more maintenance and (slightly?) reduced the likelihood of a fire. The issue is that the incentives are not aligned.

They are also regulated and have to ask for permission to raise rates. This is the double sided coin of regulated utilities. There should be mandatory annual rate hikes and those should be mandated for maintenance and safety. It is verified and if not done, the utility pays a fine of 2x the rate hike. These systems are clearly aging and that needs to be built into the legislation. What happens if PG&E just goes bankrupt? People still need power. The infrastructure is still in shambles. The legislation must have a path to sustainability. This feels very similar to how the legislature has crippled the Post Office.

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> PG&E does ultimately have some responsibility […] Don't stop there; remember they're regulated: > California’s public utilities commission prioritized rates, green power; wildfires exposed shortcomings * https://www.wsj.com/articles/pg-e-caused-over-400-fires-in-2... * https://archive.is/czAB3 (paywall) > A state lawmaker on Wednesday demanded an extensive review of the California Public Utilities Commission to det…

So what you're saying is we need more regulations to cover these kinds of cases? Aren't you "regulations" people usually against regulations? Like, normally wouldn't I be arguing against someone screaming about how the free market can take care of these things and that the free market knows better than the government? Or, once again, is it just an amazing coincidence that people have suddenly completely flipped their…

> So what you're saying is we need more regulations to cover these kinds of cases?

Please quote back to me where in my post I say "more regulation".

> Aren't you "regulations" people usually against regulations?

??? Who is the "you" that is being referenced?

Perhaps you are projecting onto me positions that I have not stated and may not actually hold. I have not stated whether more free market is good/better or bad/worse, or whether more regulations would be better or worse.

I'm simply pointing out that, in addition to PG&E, there may be other parties that may share responsibility in the chain of events that led to the situation at hand.

PG&E operates in a regulatory context: is it worth examining if that context contributed to the current situation that California is in? Are the regulations a problem? Or how they are interpreted or applied? Are more needed, or less? Perhaps they need to be streamlined (proscriptive versus descriptive)? I have no answers to these questions.

See also: the FAA and Boeing (737 MAX).

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#314
post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So your saying we should introduce chaos monkeys into power grids to improve robustness?

Actually yes, since they have a huge incentive to Run to Failure. Chaos monkeys would provide a consistent source of failures to make them do their maintenance. Similar to red teams in security.

While I appreciate the merits of chaos engineering, this comment lacks an understanding of the impact of these incidents, particularly in rural areas with a history of forest mismanagement.

People die [like my neighbors here in Sonoma, CA] - it's not an EC2 instance that gets replaced.

Further, one does not just 'restore' the power grid after an outage:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_outage#Restoring_power_a...

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#315
post #60

This is definitely a failure on PG&E's part, but I'm still not sure how much sense it makes to assign them blame for this fire. The environment they're operating in is somewhat ridiculous - the forest is so dry and overgrown that pretty much any flame source will start a fire large enough to burn a huge area; this specific tower failure is basically just the thing that revealed a much larger issue. With proper engine…

Here in Sonoma County [Tubbs fire, kincade fire, LNU Lightning fires] PG&E has had 2-3 contracted helicopters out pretty much every day doing line maintenance/checking.

I watch flightaware pretty constantly, so it's easy to see their contracted helicopters up in the area.

Point being, they are trying -- I think people also fail to understand just how huge and rural Northern CA is.

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#316
post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. I think the point is can we change our forestry practices. Ignoring the root causes and blaming the first dominoe isn’t helpful because there will always be some dumb thing to set off a massive fire. We have been assigning blame - is that effective at stopping the fires? We do blameless post-martens as a best practice in engineering so that when we don’t have constant outages of critical internet infrastructure a…

It's hard to have a "blameless postmortem" when 86 people are dead.

The NTSB doesn’t seem to have much trouble with it.

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#317
Not sure if someone covered this already, but figured I would give my two cents since I worked in the industry. Usually the hardest part of electrical work is taking a circuit off-line long enough to fix an issue like this. The toughest projects were upgrading lines where customers are fed radially (one circuit). In more densely populated areas customers are fed by two or more lines, allowing the utility to schedule an outage and do repairs or upgrades. Utilities are judged on metrics that track outage time (I believe its called SAIDI), and they will do everything they can to use those lines until the end.

Anytime a utility decides to upgrade their system they have to think about a couple things. First they need money and that requires them to secure funding from their regulatory body, which will determine if they can raise the cost of electricity for the customers. Next they have to put proposals for work out for contractors. Normally utilities are not staffed to handle major projects so they might hire a 3rd party firm to manage the work. The utility must schedule outages, which requires planners to balance the needs for maintenance with the need for long-term upgrades. If they are going to replace lines, they might as well upgrade to a higher voltage, which may require the replacement of equipment in substations, which can take years depending on the size of the sub. Time of year must be taken into consideration because electrical usage in the summer is higher, and taking one circuit out add load to other circuits and could cause failures.

You might work through all these scenarios and find yourself at the mercy of nature due to endangered animals. Birds will nest on powerlines, and prevent any maintenance to go on for months. Even if you want to do hot-work via helicopter, you are prevented from encroaching the bird by a buffer to prevent disturbing the bird. I don't know how big PG&E's system is, or how much they are willing to spend/are spending now on maintenance but this is an industry-wide problem that some utilities are handling better than others. Maybe wireless electrical transmission will solve this?

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#318

Not sure if someone covered this already, but figured I would give my two cents since I worked in the industry. Usually the hardest part of electrical work is taking a circuit off-line long enough to fix an issue like this. The toughest projects were upgrading lines where customers are fed radially (one circuit). In more densely populated areas customers are fed by two or more lines, allowing the utility to schedule…

> First they need money and that requires them to secure funding from their regulatory body, which will determine if they can raise the cost of electricity for the customers.

... long pause ...

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> I think for a utility the risk should be very very close to zero They can lower the risk by a lot, but are you ready to pay 65 cents (or whatever) a KW ? PG&E, with all its faults, has been put in an impossible position: one fire (that is bound to happen no matter what because wires fail) can bankrupt them since it can burn hundreds of thousand of acres, thousands of homes, untold deaths and other property destruc…

If 65 cents is the actual cost then it should be the price. You can't be charging people 20 cents or whatever, but then they also have to pay to have their homes rebuilt every few decades, pay for insurance, and pay for firefighters.

Don't forget, at the current rate we're all subsidizing the rural power users. They should absolutely pay more if it costs more.

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#320

I've got a bit of a problem with articles like this one. I'll try and illustrate it with an analogy: Imagine some asshole puts an incendiary in an orphanage, and rigs it to go off when a nearby speed trap detects someone going more than 10mph over. Eventually, someone does, and the orphanage catches fire. Further, the group responsible for constructing and maintaining the orphanage hasn't looked at the place for 50 y…

Driving too fast is not analogous to mismanaging a 115 kV conductor.

You're right - driving too fast is an active choice, while lack of maintenance is an accident.
Post reply on HN