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This electrical transmission tower has a problem

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Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#301
post #60

This is definitely a failure on PG&E's part, but I'm still not sure how much sense it makes to assign them blame for this fire. The environment they're operating in is somewhat ridiculous - the forest is so dry and overgrown that pretty much any flame source will start a fire large enough to burn a huge area; this specific tower failure is basically just the thing that revealed a much larger issue. With proper engine…

I suppose you think that nuclear power plants should be operated under the same "run to failure" maintenance policy?

No, but if the city nearby insisted on building too close than people suffering from radiation (I'm just inventing a story here) is not just my fault.

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#302

I guess my takeaway from this is if you're a government building some sort of asset you're going to transfer to the private sector, overengineer it. Nobody is ever going to do maintenance, so your thing essentially has to last forever. Imagine that they made the hooks so they only lasted for 10 years -- we'd have 10 times as many billion-dollar fires. But some engineer in 1918 said "you know, let's make it a little b…

>" your thing essentially has to last forever"

Wtf is the role of the private sector then? What are they contributing?

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#303
post #60

This is definitely a failure on PG&E's part, but I'm still not sure how much sense it makes to assign them blame for this fire. The environment they're operating in is somewhat ridiculous - the forest is so dry and overgrown that pretty much any flame source will start a fire large enough to burn a huge area; this specific tower failure is basically just the thing that revealed a much larger issue. With proper engine…

My thoughts exactly, PG&E are to blame and should be punished but it seems like someone forgot to ask the 5 why's- why did the fire spread so fast ? why didn't people got a warning in time ?

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nice, but no in-line images which are important in this case.

I can see the inline images. Perhaps it's blocked on your browser?

Didn't see them either. Firefox blocked the images (tracking)

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#305
post #255

The root problem is that an aboveground power distribution network was used when an underground one would have been the right solution. This is not cheap to fix and so lotteries with peoples lives and property are on the order of the day. The US power infrastructure is dated and super fragile, fixing it would be super costly and would take a long time. The profit oriented nature of these companies is what stops this…

We seem to be in the mood to burn trillions of dollars, so I'm not sure what expensive means anymore. Renovating US infrastructure seems more prescient than another trillion dollar funemployment program.

Besides having an actual return on that investment in terms of lower opex once it is realized.

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> With proper engineering and maintenance, PG&E could probably reduce the frequency of fires significantly, but there's always going to be a non-zero risk of fire, both from power lines and other sources, and it seems basically inevitable that one of them would have started another fire at some point. I don’t understand. You’re conceding that if PG&E were a competent and responsible company they could significantly r…

No the root of the problem is that there's too much forest that hasn't burned. Blaming PG&E is missing the actual problem. For instance the Beirut explosion was the fault from the welders causing the explosion. Yes, but the larger and more important issue is why are there so many explosives in the first place? California's mismanagement with it's forest is the same issue. These forests should be periodically burned t…

I don’t disagree with your point that there’s shared responsibility.

But a big reason the welders aren’t the focus of the blame is that they were the first ones to die in the explosion.

The consequences for PG&E were simply 4 millions here, which is a ridiculously small amount.

Also, you don’t treat individuals and companies the same way.

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#307

I've got a bit of a problem with articles like this one. I'll try and illustrate it with an analogy: Imagine some asshole puts an incendiary in an orphanage, and rigs it to go off when a nearby speed trap detects someone going more than 10mph over. Eventually, someone does, and the orphanage catches fire. Further, the group responsible for constructing and maintaining the orphanage hasn't looked at the place for 50 y…

Driving too fast is not analogous to mismanaging a 115 kV conductor.

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It lacks context, but the idea itself is not ridiculous. That's pretty much how original Australians dealt with fuel buildup. Move and burn often. Given specific ecosystem, in a very literal sense, 1000 fires are better than 10 in the same area over the same time period.

I lived in Africa. The parks used to run controlled burns, every year or two, of the savanna grass. They tended to do this during the [very] wet season. But PG&E is still on the hook for taking better care of their infrastructure. It all comes down to dollars and [non]sense. Some actuary has determined that an occasional lawsuit and rotten press run is cheaper than maintaining the wires. Here in New York, many of the…

> There’s no plan to dig them up and replace them

Yes, but that’s disingenuous. The largest civil engineering project in America right now is the new water tunnel for NYC. It’s been in progress for fifty years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City_Water_Tunnel_No....

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#309
post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> California's mismanagement with its forest is the same issue. I agree that the forests should be managed differently, but if this being "California's mismanagement" is an actual thing as opposed to political disinformation, I'd love to see a couple links to back it up. Some quick googling suggests that it's mostly a Federal problem, which has very different implications especially right now. Am I wrong?

blame the feds, blame CA, blame the natural state of forests in CA... Any way too much blame is on PG&E.

What an odd sentiment...

Re: This electrical transmission tower has a problem

#310
What's the right policy solution to this? Genuinely asking.

The proximal problems pointed out here are: - CA power transmission infrastructure is under maintained. - CA has overgrown forests of which anything can be a catalyst for forest fires.

For whether the CA infrastructure was indeed under maintained, let's look at the costs and benefits:

The cost of maintaining the infrastructure more is that you'd have to inspect much more of the power infrastructure much more often. The twitter thread suggests that there were many orders of magnitude more quantity infrastructure like this, and this tower was under maintained by at least one order of magnitude. (To be honest, I'm not sure whether the tower lasting 100 years is evidence in favor of more preventative maintenance or less!)

Costs are made worse by the rising cost of infrastructure in the last many decades. Think about the cost of building a new subway in Manhattan and now think about replacing all the century-old high tension towers in CA.

The benefit of preventive maintenance is that you'd get fewer accidents, and perhaps less downtime caused by accidental failures. How much fewer fire accidents you'd get is uncertain -- the rest of the comments here do a good job of dissecting between the camp that says this could have permanently prevented all electrical-caused CA wildfires (maybe a few fires per decade?) and the camp that says this would have no long run impact on the number of disastrous fires because a lighting strike would have started the next fire.

Now it seems to me uncertain that the costs outweigh the benefits, but suppose it does, what's the best way to make PG&E do more maintenance?

Currently PG&E is profit-incentivized to not maintain infrastructure very much. The gov't could force them to establish a liability fund that they must contribute 50% of profits to until they have enough money in a trust fund to cover one bad wildfire. This policy would have direct cost effect on Californians -- after all PG&E is not a genie that you can legislate free money or performance from. PG&E would raise electricity rates by an amount equivalent to its current profit margin (not that much) and perform more fixing of infrastructure to meet the CA rule. This seems like probably a good route to take, as PG&E would then focus maintenance on liability reduction. The liability laws should be written carefully to incentivize PG&E to fix the right things. PG&E should only have a certain percentage liability per event, where the percentage correlates with "how many new wildfire did you cause / how fire-proof this region would have been if not for PG&E".

There are some other fixes too for the legislatively-minded. CA could just literally force PG&E to replace towers every 50 years, conduct 2x as many inspections etc. This would probably raise PG&E's costs which would get passed to CA utility payers. The disadvantage of this solution over the last paragraph is that the specific maintenance is by law, instead of at the discretion of PG&E's technicians. But if you think PG&E's management is poor to begin with, then that's not too bad.

But what if we just take more of it from executive's pay? Probably the executives will just leave and go elsewhere, in which case it becomes similar to the next solution: nationalizing PG&E. Now this could work. The engineers of HN in PG&E will have to tell me how much mismanagement is really going on inside PG&E compared to gov't owned utilities they've worked in in the past. The higher that ratio, the better the case for nationalization. The lower the ratio (e.g. if you feel the state of CA would run PG&E worse than today's management), then the less argument there is for nationalization.

Overall, the extra maintenance has to be funded by someone. Your pick of whether electricity prices go up, or whether fire-endangered towns need to make 2x property taxes, or whether CA residents have higher income tax rates.

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