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Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

cliffmass.blogspot.com

291–300 of 332 posts

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#291

Yup. It's been a fun weekend. Everyone in the family is feeling the cabin fever, but outside (Bellevue, WA) smells like inside of a fireplace. We put a few boxed fans with HEPA filters around the house and they are now black. In hindsight, should've bought more filters, but all the stores and Amazon are sold out for the near future. Speaking about the future, this puts planning in perspective. With the climate changi…

For air filters, try McMaster-Carr. They generally sell to businesses but ship to home addresses as well.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Be sure to have a bypass on your rain system to flush the smoke precipitates off your roof before they get into the tank. My parents water used to taste of tar over winter when they were lighting their fire.

Good to note! One thing I definitely want to do when I have the means is built a cabin/house with the latest and greatest efficiencies. Not in a hippy-earth-loving way, but more in a curious engineer way. Did you know there are these things called Earthships in New Mexico? It's a bit too hippy for me, but on the right track.

I sense some hippie shame (maybe I'm wrong)! IMO a lot of that feeling stems from the government and ruling class pushing back against counter-culture. They were more right about the environment (among other issues) than they even realized at the time.

Earthships are unconventional in appearance and implementation, but are great examples of the type of thinking we're going to need to overcome imminent climate issues. If we started doing more of that in the 60s and 70s we'd be in a better position today.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I use these guys to have them shipped. Comes in a few days, but this is going to last a while https://www.secondnature.com/

I realize that air filters are the perfect candidate for a subscription service... but it's just insane the that every product in existence has a business prepared to ship some of it to you monthly.

It's not super easy to be in the filters subscription business. People have odd size filters (I'm one of them, it's 1" shorter than the standard size), so it's a bit labor intensive. This is the sort of thing you should really be able to subscribe to when you get your furnace.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#294
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, the weather forecasts for air quality have been quite inaccurate. Since Friday, the projections for Oakland CA have constantly been, “it’ll clear up in the next 24 hours.” Only now, Tuesday morning, has the AQI dropped below 100. It seems like it’s just a harder problem than regular weather forecasting. Nobody has much experience with giant smoke clouds like this one. So I can forgive the weather service some i…

I've found the HRRR experimental smoke models to be quite good. It's a bit cumbersome to use, but good enough for 18H forecasts https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/

In my experience these have been completely wrong recently for my neck of the woods (PDX) even at 6-12 hours. Cliff explains in one of his posts that this is because of not modeling the inversion. I’m having better luck with the Copernicus CAMS forecast in Windy

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#295

Yup. It's been a fun weekend. Everyone in the family is feeling the cabin fever, but outside (Bellevue, WA) smells like inside of a fireplace. We put a few boxed fans with HEPA filters around the house and they are now black. In hindsight, should've bought more filters, but all the stores and Amazon are sold out for the near future. Speaking about the future, this puts planning in perspective. With the climate changi…

Portland burbs here. It's been a crazy week for us. When those howling east winds started a week ago Monday (9/7) we got some smoke initially that evening as fires started flaming up immediately with that dry wind. Then we awoke on Tuesday to the pleasant surprise of blue skies as I guess the winds shifted just a bit so that the smoke missed us here, but down valley we were seeing some very apocalyptic pics. And we could look to the south and see the smoke plume. The good air stayed around till Thursday afternoon. We've had AQI up into the 400s on occasion since. Yesterday it went down a bit into the mid 300s. Today it's down to about 250 and we're just elated that it's gone from hazardous to very unhealthy. The house has been closed up since last Thursday, we're fortunate to have a HEPA filter that move to whatever room we're in at the time - but it's definitely still noticeable - scratchy throat, tight chest, headache, eyes stinging by evening. We've gone through one of the HEPA filter cartridges already.

I hadn't been out of the house from last Thursday until this afternoon when I ventured out with an N95 mask to water the garden and make a quick trip to the store - my eyes are still smarting a couple hours later. On the weekend we were told things would get better with some showers on Monday, but they never materialized. Now they're telling us it'll be Thursday or Friday before we get some significant (but not complete) clearing. I hope they're right this time - a lot of people are starting to lose hope.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#296
post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I refuse to believe that all air filtering fans on Amazon are sold out, especially considering their extreme popularity in countries all over Asia. And even if we assume that’s the case for the sake of argument, you can still buy N95 particle masks of many different brands which will protect you well from particles in the air. They also mostly protect you from viruses. There was a pretty massive supply shortage of th…

Looking at the current Amazon search results for “air purifier”: first one doesn’t ship to California, second is out of stock, third one is ridiculously expensive ($800!) and been shown to have a questionable effectiveness, fourth one can only cover a small room (and won’t arrive until next week), fifth and sixth ones are out of stock. Also most people don’t enjoy wearing an N95 mask for a long time. Imagine wearing…

Is that true that the smoke will get in after a few hours? Over the last few days, as soon as I step outside, I can smell the smoke out there really bad. I thought for sure that if it was smokey in the house, my nose would be used to the smell. I mean, I can see some particles getting into the house, but it has to be far better indoors doesn't it?

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems like whataboutism to me. What bearing does that have on the correctness of Cliff Mass's comparison of the subset of BLM protesters that engage in criminal activities and brownshirts?

It goes to show that Cliff Mass has completely lost his framework of reference in his comparison (and so have you). As a German let me assure you that comparing riots among BLM protesters to the Kristallnacht is utterly unappropriate. Don't get me wrong - the rioters should be held accountable for their crimes. You compare a local, loosely organised group of somewhat indiscriminate rioters to a nation-wide, highly hi…

My feeling is that you are getting overly specific about requiring every detail to be an exact match for a similarity to hold. I don't think that is reasonable. Both the criminal subsets of BLM and the brownshirts created an atmosphere of fear. In Seattle, people are afraid to voice their political opinions freely, whether online or in social circles or at work or in political action or protests, because of the threat of these groups and their aggressive tactics. That is what makes this comparison valid, ultimately, since these actions constitute terrorism.

Some other responses to specific things you mentioned:

> loosely organised group

BLM is a nationwide (and global) organization with chapters in numerous cities across America. Protesters in different cities share tactics, chants, demands, etc with each other. Many cities even share the same exact participants. For example, some people from Seattle were arrested in Kenosha recently, as they were using their food truck "Riot Kitchen" as a cover for planned criminal activity (https://thepostmillennial.com/portlands-riot-kitchen-arreste...). Just because these groups have some degree of decentralization doesn't mean they are "local" or just "loosely organized", and it does not reduce the chilling effect they are having on political discourse.

> somewhat indiscriminate rioters

The various incidents I quoted in my earlier comment were highly-targeted, which is the opposite of indiscriminate.

> para-military organisation that targets one specific ethnicity and went on to commit mass murder of said ethnicity on an unprecedented, industrial scale

There is no mass murder from BLM. However, this was not the primary purpose of the brownshirts either. The regime that the brownshirts enabled was responsible for significant mass murder, but the brownshirts themselves are described in Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturmabteilung) as follows:

"Its primary purposes were providing protection for Nazi rallies and assemblies; disrupting the meetings of opposing parties; fighting against the paramilitary units of the opposing parties [...]; and intimidating Romani, trade unionists, and especially Jews such as during the 1933 Nazi boycott of Jewish businesses"

The parallels I am noting are things like providing protection for riots/criminal activity, disrupting opposing parties, and intimidation (of politicians, of private citizens, of businesses). My evidence is the long list of incidents I mentioned in my earlier comment. One of those incidents was even explicitly targeting an ethnicity. Another incident specifically carried misogynist tones. All of these incidents targeted people based on political views and created a sense of fear, so that those who harbor a different opinion are afraid to speak out. That is happening on an unprecedented, industrial scale, across virtually every city in the country.

> let me assure you that comparing riots among BLM protesters to the Kristallnacht is utterly unappropriate

Let's take a look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kristallnacht. It characterizes the event as involving "Pogrom, looting, arson, mass arrests". The definition of pogrom is noted in its own Wikipedia article as "A pogrom is a violent riot aimed at the massacre or expulsion of an ethnic or religious group, particularly one aimed at Jews". I mentioned there have been incidents of mobs showing up at the homes of white citizens and demanding they leave - so that checks the "expulsion of an ethnic group" part. We obviously have also had violent riots, looting, and arson as well - there are tons of videos showing that. To my knowledge, city leadership did nothing to stop many of these incidents, by the way.

Seattle did not have the scale of Kristallnacht, nor the mass arrests/incarceration, nor the murder. I don't think Cliff Mass was claiming that, and I don't think readers interpreted his comparison that way either. But since Seattle has had many of the other elements, I felt the comparison was valid-enough to draw.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#298
post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not my job to help you find N95 masks, they’re available from most hardware stores and definitely from Amazon. I just looked and there’s at least one type available on Amazon that’s not 3M in addition to full respirator masks and everything in between, and it’s easy to find other stores through Google that sell 3M disposable masks if that happens to be the only one you trust. In addition to that, loose particle…

> they’re available from most hardware stores Home Depot, Lowes etc. have been sold out of or have been donating their N95's since this all started. So you're wrong there. Try searching again, like I did. > definitely from Amazon I said genuine . Many of these have been found to be counterfeit. They may not be, but neither you nor I really know. Essential workers have been given priority everywhere in the US for 3M o…

If you have a furnace, you have a filter. Take the filter out of it and stick it on your box fan. Even if it's a little dirty, it's better than nothing.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#299
post #112
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I'm not looking forward to any smoke now my dad has COPD, IPF, is on oxygen, and he's elderly. If we get any amount of smoke here it will be the end of him. It's hard enough trying to keep him from contracting SARS-Cov-2 and developing covid-19 Seriously, get a HEPA rated air filter. Speaking as someone who has some serious lung issues, it's literally life changing/saving. Honeywell sells a number of models, cost is…

The University of Michigan made an instructional video showing how you can easily make an air purifier out of a box fan and a HEPA-rated furnace filter for $25: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kH5APw_SLUU It won't be as good as a purpose-built machine, but it will be far better than nothing at all. TheWirecutter found it reduced particulate matter in a room by 87%, if you do it right. They also make clear important c…

Portland burbs here: box fans and filters of all types sold out days ago. A lot of people here doing the box fan filter.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#300
post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have COPD or other serious lung issues, don't get just one HEPA filter. These machines are rated to filter the air in an area that's certain number of square feet, based on how many CFM of air they move. Get at least enough of them that your whole living space is covered, and deploy them throughout the entire dwelling. You may want more individual machines so you can run them on a lower fan setting, which prod…

The area covered is somewhat useless — actual coverage depends hugely on how leaky the building is and how windy it is. The goal is to get enough air through filters that the incoming smoky air is diluted enough by filtered air to achieve a good average particle count. A handheld particle counter helps a lot.

Any recs on handheld devices? Looking to buy and would love to get some suggestions!
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