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Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

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Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#121

Post by yowlingcat »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #90
yowlingcat wrote: post #11

If you're like me and you wondered if the fires raging on the west coast could benefit from the controlled burn approach Australia has historically used to control bushfires, the answer seems to be a disappointing no [1]. Any folks who know this better than me who can comment? > He adds that a particular feature of the recent fires in Australia is that they have spread across the crown or top part of the forest - so…

Conservation of energy indicates that you can ‘flatten the curve’ of forest fires by doing more burns more frequently that are less intense.

That's what I was under the impression of as well. What the article seems to imply, though, is that exogenous increase in burn intensity (ostensibly through climate change) is making the mileage of that approach less practical than it used to be. Of course, I'm sure the two are not mutually exclusive.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#122

Post by jniedrauer »

DocG wrote: post #3

Genuine question, are these fires big enough to stop them from happening for a while? Or should we expect another one next year? Edit: My original question was more in mind with does this have same effect as controlled burning / prescribed burning. Thank you all for replies :)

We had fires like this in Washington in 2018. 2019 was a small respite. But I expect this to be at least a biennial thing from now on.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#123

Post by lacker »

gkop wrote: post #119
Scoundreller wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or in a pinch, a HEPA vacuum cleaner. Double points if you rig it to take in outside air and vent it inside to create a positive pressure of filtered air. This should work.

Would you say more about the double points idea? Our Coway is struggling to filter our small apartment just recirculating air. It would be amazing to be able to bring in filtered cool outside air, but I haven’t found any HEPA purifiers on the market with an intake hose or window mount (short of a permanent HVAC).

How exactly is your Coway struggling? Typically it is harder for a filter to clean the air in your apartment when you are bringing in extra outside air.

If you have a good filter but it is not managing to clean the air in your apartment, the most likely problems are that your apartment is too large for the filter's capacity, or that your apartment leaks air in from outside so that your filter can't counteract the effects of the leaking.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#124

Post by aaomidi »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #98
aaomidi wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can find furnace filters with higher ratings.

True, but they don’t keep the air clean nearly as fast as putting room air purifiers near people (closer to source) unless you have an HVAC that is so powerful you feel wind inside..

It's really not related to wind speed or hvac power. If you have a well insulated house then a normal hvac system can maintain positive pressure and keep the air inside clean. Assuming it's designed for that purpose.

Alternatively just having a bunch of box fans forcing air through filters is also good. That's essentially what a air purifier is.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#125

Post by jcranmer »

laurencerowe wrote: post #118
xapata wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coal smoke in that case, not wood smoke. Coal is a terrible pollutant. If you survive the wood smoke, the literature suggests you'll be back to normal in a couple weeks.

Doesn’t coal burn more cleanly than wood? Edit: I was probably thinking of smokeless coal which is processed to burn more cleanly.

It depends on the grade of coal. If you're burning anthracite, yes. If you're burning lignite... no.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#126

Post by mtalantikite »

I was in Delhi in January/February a couple years ago and the air quality index looked the same as the image from the article around Salem, OR every day I was there. Some nights I’d check the stats and it’d be around 600. The depressing thing is you end up getting sort of used to it, albeit with a bad cough.

The effects of our reckless destruction of the environment are sadly in your face every day in many parts of the world.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#127

Post by gkop »

lacker wrote: post #123
gkop wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you say more about the double points idea? Our Coway is struggling to filter our small apartment just recirculating air. It would be amazing to be able to bring in filtered cool outside air, but I haven’t found any HEPA purifiers on the market with an intake hose or window mount (short of a permanent HVAC).

How exactly is your Coway struggling? Typically it is harder for a filter to clean the air in your apartment when you are bringing in extra outside air. If you have a good filter but it is not managing to clean the air in your apartment, the most likely problems are that your apartment is too large for the filter's capacity, or that your apartment leaks air in from outside so that your filter can't counteract the eff…

Yes, apartment too large and poorly sealed.

> Typically it is harder for a filter to clean the air in your apartment when you are bringing in extra outside air

That was my point. Bringing in outside air would be a luxury.

Btw just ordered passive filters for the windows for super cheap- perhaps that will move the needle on how much outside air we can bring in while maintaining indoor AQI.

Still curious about the positive pressure idea. If it’s effective, I’d expect someone to productize it.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#128

Post by leftyted »

DaniloDias wrote: post #115
pravus wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least from my perspective this has been an ongoing problem for many years now and I would refer you to Godwin's law. There is this weird sort of mystique about Hitler and the Nazi Party that keep people entranced that it was "pure evil" rather than a decade-plus political process taking place in a very unique time of history with many other actors in play. You can't use any sort of "slippery slope" argument becaus…

Have you read the rise and Fall of the Third Reich? I appreciate your perspective on the incubation period of nazi Germany- but I think you are floating over some important events. These ‘brown shirts’ were citizen volunteer believers who evolved into a kind of political pressure group hitler could direct around. They would harass towns, intervene at businesses, assault and eventually murder people. They were not a p…

I wrote this in response to your previous post, which was flagged:

I don't think this rioting, violence, and general unrest should be compared to the Brown Shirts. Groups engaging in "antagonism and murder towards people they perceived as evil" are not uncommon in history. An analogy to the Nazis in the 30s seems out of place because, as you say, of everything that the Nazis did after the 30s.

If you want to talk to about ideologues, people for whom the ends justify the means, people who are willing to engage in violence and destruction for ideological goals, then you can make a comparison here. You can put the Brown Shirts in this category, you can put current rioters in this category, you can put a large number of historical groups in this category, and I think this categorization is fair. (Note that sometimes this violence may even be justified).

But why pick the Nazis in particular for your comparison? Comparing this group or that group to the Nazis is almost always rhetorical trick precisely because of the Holocaust. Why not pick some other group in history that used violence to pursue its ideological goals but didn't boil over into a genocide? The answer is that, if you picked another group, the rhetorical power of the comparison would be lost. But it would be a more honest comparison.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#129

Post by cmendel »

DaniloDias wrote: post #48
cmendel wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding, are you advocating for continuing to follow a blog that is known to give misinformation because you like the writing style? Because if that is the case I would highly recommend changing your mind, the Bayesian prior has changed and unfortunately it is permanent.

Rephrasing what someone wrote in an uncharitable way is a toxic form of communication that will limit your ability to experience diversity of perspective. It annoys everyone around you and will hurt you in the long run. Instead of slapping malignant narratives on people, try asking explorative questions that invite the OP to clarify or make an ass of themselves.

I don't have a dog in this fight. I don't follow the aforementioned blogger and don't live on the west coast. That said, your response is interesting, how is my query toxic? To be honest, I don't even think I'm being uncharitable; if a previously reliable information source starting being unreliable then I would expect folks to pay attention to notice that and cease to use it as a source.

Since you have an opinion on this, what sort of questions should I have asked the OP?

To be explicit; I'm not trolling, I'm genuinely curious.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#130

Post by pbuzbee »

DocG wrote: post #3

Genuine question, are these fires big enough to stop them from happening for a while? Or should we expect another one next year? Edit: My original question was more in mind with does this have same effect as controlled burning / prescribed burning. Thank you all for replies :)

Looking at maps of the fires can give a sense of what fraction has burned.

Here's the Cal Fire map for California: https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/

These fires are certainly large, but there's plenty more that can burn.

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