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Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

cliffmass.blogspot.com

101–110 of 332 posts

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#101
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coal smoke in that case, not wood smoke. Coal is a terrible pollutant. If you survive the wood smoke, the literature suggests you'll be back to normal in a couple weeks.

Source? What makes combustion particulates from coal substantially worse than combustion particulates from wood?

> Source?

This one is easy to research. I'm not trying to convince you of anything, just being helpful.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#102
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coal smoke in that case, not wood smoke. Coal is a terrible pollutant. If you survive the wood smoke, the literature suggests you'll be back to normal in a couple weeks.

Today in HackerNews: Don't worry about that pesky wood smoke, it'll all be fine, folks!

No, that's not the takeaway. I wear my N95 outside, run my air filter inside, and avoid strenuous activity. However, there's no need to panic if you get a cough from the smoke.

Don't exaggerate my statement.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#103
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I worry about the consequences of prolonged exposure. There is historical precedent that shows we should be concerned. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Smog_of_London

Coal smoke in that case, not wood smoke. Coal is a terrible pollutant. If you survive the wood smoke, the literature suggests you'll be back to normal in a couple weeks.

It's not the wood I'm worried about, it's all the non-organic material in the smoke. Plastic, household chemicals, paint, etc... In some years we'll see a massive spike in cancer and respiratory issues from these fires.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#104
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that this is technically true, since icebergs are made from fresh water and they melt in the salt water of the ocean. Fresh water is less dense, so it will take up a larger volume than that of salt water.

Where does the additional density come from that wasn't there already when the iceberg was floating?

The amount of salt water displaced by the fresh water ice is equal to its weight, but the melted fresh water will take up a slightly larger volume than the displaced salt water. It is small, but calculable.

From what I remember reading, if all of the floating sea ice on the globe were to melt right now, sea levels would rise by about 5 centimeters.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/201...

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#105
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Weren't these fires caused by a party?

There are hundreds of fires across thousands of miles. So no. Many were caused by dry lightning and other natural phenomena.

Thank you that makes sense

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that he went off the deep end with that post. Let there’s be no mistake about that; I live on cap hill in Seattle and his analogy falls flat on its face for many reasons. But, I think we should allow ourselves the nuanced perspective of continuing to enjoy his weather posts even if we disagree with his politics. I think that we owe it to ourselves to be able to pick and choose information from a person rather…

Could you help me understand the reasons? When you are living history, you don’t know that ww2 is around the corner. I think the observations of the similarities between the brown shirts and violent protesters is correct. I don’t know if a better historical parallel. Look what happened to Aaron Danielson. Brown shirts engaged in antagonism and murder towards people they perceived as evil in the same way these Antifa…

At least from my perspective this has been an ongoing problem for many years now and I would refer you to Godwin's law.

There is this weird sort of mystique about Hitler and the Nazi Party that keep people entranced that it was "pure evil" rather than a decade-plus political process taking place in a very unique time of history with many other actors in play. You can't use any sort of "slippery slope" argument because of course those don't exist. The fact that you can trace elements of both WW-I and WW-II to at least the mid-1800s in terms of holistic world upheaval doesn't even get mentioned. There doesn't seem to be many students of history these days.

Instead what we get is almost fantasy horror and when you try to make serious political arguments they are just dismissed. I mean, it can't happen here because unicorns don't exist either. I also find it troubling that many people have no appreciation for Marx, Lenin, Stalin, and Mao in light of the millions lives that were destroyed after WW-II. Some very horrific acts occurred in the 20th century and debating rather than dismissing these issues seems like not only a good idea, but probably essential if peace and humanity are truly desired.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#107
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Willamette Valley here, and I feel you. Was really investing a lot of my optimism in the rain that was talked about for today, for over a week now — which doesn’t look like it’s gonna happen. This has been a long, long week.

When I stepped out of my house last night and saw clouds and a little bit of blue I was ridiculously happy. None of the predicted wind or rain has shown up so far, I wonder if the fires are blocking the normal wind from the ocean.

Dark Sky has been promising a very good chance of light rain on Friday, it’s all that’s keeping me going...

I’m trying to forget that it says 0.01”.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#108
post #91

I'm in southeastern Canada years ago smoke from Quebec forest fires made the sky red. The soil where I am from is also red. It was like living on Mars. The fun ends quickly when your throat gets scratchy and there is no where you can go to escape it the air in your house has to come from outside too. I'm not looking forward to any smoke now my dad has COPD, IPF, is on oxygen, and he's elderly. If we get any amount of…

>I'm not looking forward to any smoke now my dad has COPD, IPF, is on oxygen, and he's elderly. If we get any amount of smoke here it will be the end of him. It's hard enough trying to keep him from contracting SARS-Cov-2 and developing covid-19 Seriously, get a HEPA rated air filter. Speaking as someone who has some serious lung issues, it's literally life changing/saving. Honeywell sells a number of models, cost is…

This. My sleep has greatly improved since putting a HEPA filter in my bedroom and I rather enjoy the white noise of the fan. Good units like the Sharp Plasmacluster I use have a large, slow moving blower (not a higher speed fan with fewer, larger blades) so the noise is very subtle.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#109
post #29

This blog post went up on Saturday, September 12. It says: >> MUCH cleaner air will push in by 4 PM Sunday over the coastal zone and will just reach Seattle late in the afternoon >> By 1 AM Monday, air quality will be hugely better in western Washington As of now (Tuesday) there is no sign of clearing. Here in Seattle we are still in the "very unhealthy" range for AQI.

He posted updates yesterday and today explaining why the models were wrong, it’s a very interesting insight into some of the complexities of the problem and how many variables are involved:

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/09/much-more-pessimistic... https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/09/why-smoke-situation-i...

Basically, no good news till at least tomorrow:

>> So I am not optimistic for improvement either today or Wednesday. With smoke production (at a lower level) by the continuing fires, a "stuck" weather pattern, and smoke trapped in a relatively stable lower atmosphere, things just can't improve rapidly.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#110
post #91

I'm in southeastern Canada years ago smoke from Quebec forest fires made the sky red. The soil where I am from is also red. It was like living on Mars. The fun ends quickly when your throat gets scratchy and there is no where you can go to escape it the air in your house has to come from outside too. I'm not looking forward to any smoke now my dad has COPD, IPF, is on oxygen, and he's elderly. If we get any amount of…

>I'm not looking forward to any smoke now my dad has COPD, IPF, is on oxygen, and he's elderly. If we get any amount of smoke here it will be the end of him. It's hard enough trying to keep him from contracting SARS-Cov-2 and developing covid-19 Seriously, get a HEPA rated air filter. Speaking as someone who has some serious lung issues, it's literally life changing/saving. Honeywell sells a number of models, cost is…

Or in a pinch, a HEPA vacuum cleaner. Double points if you rig it to take in outside air and vent it inside to create a positive pressure of filtered air.

This should work.

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