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Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

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Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#121

Post by toomuchtodo »

xivzgrev wrote: post #97
zachware wrote: post #92

This will all depend what % of employers stay with their current remote structure. It’ll be somewhere between 1% of 80/90%. The point is that we’re making long-term decisions based on short-term problems. Specifically this week JP Morgan asked its traders to return to the office. You can counter this with examples like Facebook opening an office in Austin some years ago because that’s where the talent had moved. Simi…

exactly this. i'm pretty surprised at the number of people buying homes in far out locations, like this "new normal" is going to be the "new normal" ongoing. I don't buy it (yet). There are a few companies that have bought in, and if you work there then at least you're set for a bit. But people only stay at a tech job for a few years typically - what happens when you want to switch companies?

You only interview at companies that support remote (or with hiring managers who will support you being remote in an org that isn’t fully committed to remote) and you keep a large emergency fund to give you substantial runway between jobs (~1 year expenses). Very easy to do on a tech salary and you moved to a low cost of living area with cheap housing (<$1k/month mortgage, reasonable property taxes).

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#122

Post by mjayhn »

jpindar wrote: post #42
mjayhn wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They almost never have decent internet if you're someone trying to wfh. Most of them are POTS lines only. The ones that have muni fiber would be a possible option but you're making definite trade offs elsewhere. Pubtrans, bike lanes, food options, travel optins, etc.

That's not true. Except for rural areas, most of the US has broadband internet, typically from their cable company.

You're not wrong, I forget the Gov calls 100Mbps broadband (thankfully up from 10Mbps). I wasn't specific enough. I personally, and I do move every few years to new States/Cities (and recently trying to move to smaller mountain/woodsy towns) and wfh and have to actually have 100Mbps+ internet or I think I'll melt. Most of the towns I looked were vdsl/DSL only except for a few who had gone the muni route or had an executive from Xfinity living there.

300mb+ is still pretty hard to get outside of cities.

I've actually spent ~$20k before to get Spectrum to cable an old house in the middle of a huge city.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#123

Post by vmception »

refurb wrote: post #31
nordsieck wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I wonder whether this trend will reverse in the next 1-3 years or this is the new permanent dynamic of the SF rental market. IMO, that's completely dependent on how much SF tech companies embrace remote work.

What confuses me is the home buying far outside urban areas. I understand that people will be working from home for 12 months, but buying a home an expensive transaction. If forced to go back to the office, these folks are looking at very long commute. I assume they: 1) know for sure they can wfh permanently, 2) are betting they will be able to wfh permanently or 3) are willing to quit when asked to come back to the…

protip: many SF residents can completely afford homes far outside urban areas.

They simply moved money from their brokerage account into the home.

The mortgage, if any, was small to them and is completely serviceable as they were saving for a mere downpayment on a SF or peninsula home, minimum downpayments are often 20% of the home value which would be close to $400,000 of $2,000,000. You typically want to reduce interest payments by putting larger percentages down.

They can sell the houses whenever they want and not lose anything or much. Its a store of value that also puts a roof over their head without having to pay someone else every month.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#124

Post by mjayhn »

ghaff wrote: post #44
mjayhn wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They almost never have decent internet if you're someone trying to wfh. Most of them are POTS lines only. The ones that have muni fiber would be a possible option but you're making definite trade offs elsewhere. Pubtrans, bike lanes, food options, travel optins, etc.

Rural broadband is certainly an issue generally. But a lot of people seem to be under the impression that as soon as you leave the city limits of a major city, you're in the wilds of Wyoming. Somewhere like Massachusetts, there are a ton of towns and smaller cities not called Boston that have broadband.

I didn't know it was a big thing in MA. But thanks for letting me know, I'll check it out. I hope to go back to the NE/E in the next few years (Maine/VT/MA).

I tried to move to a small town this year, one that was woodsy and if possible in the mountains, AK, CO, WA, OR. My requirement was 100mb+ internet that didn't require me paying Spectrum $25k to cable another road. Honestly I would've been fine with DSL at a bunch of these places but they were almost all satellite only. I looked for about 3 months before I eventually just went to the city. But the market is insane right now, I did find some that were gone quickly.

There are 3 "towns" in CO that you can possibly get fiber at but without MLS/Trulia having that as a filter I spent a bunch of time checking zip codes for service and being let down.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#125

Post by cactus2093 »

xivzgrev wrote: post #97
zachware wrote: post #92

This will all depend what % of employers stay with their current remote structure. It’ll be somewhere between 1% of 80/90%. The point is that we’re making long-term decisions based on short-term problems. Specifically this week JP Morgan asked its traders to return to the office. You can counter this with examples like Facebook opening an office in Austin some years ago because that’s where the talent had moved. Simi…

exactly this. i'm pretty surprised at the number of people buying homes in far out locations, like this "new normal" is going to be the "new normal" ongoing. I don't buy it (yet). There are a few companies that have bought in, and if you work there then at least you're set for a bit. But people only stay at a tech job for a few years typically - what happens when you want to switch companies?

It's certainly possible that people have taken a liking to remote work and decided it's the right move for themselves. Whether in 5 years remote work is much more prevalent than it was in Feb 2020 or about the same doesn't necessarily affect your own individual decision making.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#126

Post by shajznnckfke »

cactus2093 wrote: post #125
xivzgrev wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

exactly this. i'm pretty surprised at the number of people buying homes in far out locations, like this "new normal" is going to be the "new normal" ongoing. I don't buy it (yet). There are a few companies that have bought in, and if you work there then at least you're set for a bit. But people only stay at a tech job for a few years typically - what happens when you want to switch companies?

It's certainly possible that people have taken a liking to remote work and decided it's the right move for themselves. Whether in 5 years remote work is much more prevalent than it was in Feb 2020 or about the same doesn't necessarily affect your own individual decision making.

If you’re used to receiving BigCo pay and bought a mansion in a remote vacation hotspot, you could be in for a rude awakening if you find other remote jobs pay half as much and your employer knows that and stops giving you refreshes.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#127

Post by cam0 »

chrisseaton wrote: post #36
ssequeira wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are some examples of Bay Area towns? It seems like everyone in my friend circle in tech lives in San Francisco and puts up (or used to) with the long commute.

Half Moon Bay for example looks like a nice little place? I had dinner there once passing through. Wasn't an Applebees. https://www.visithalfmoonbay.org/ Go much further north of the Bay and you can live in Yountville and I think you'll have a 3-star restaurant in your town, which is a level of culture you can't even get in most US megacities. Again not Applebees. https://yountville.com/

Yountville is nice and it's also dripping in wealth - if you aren't driving a Porsche and carrying a black AmEx you'll feel out of place.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#128

Post by shajznnckfke »

randycupertino wrote: post #60
dontremeber wrote: post #38

> Many Americans — especially 30-somethings who remain employed — are ditching their tiny rental apartments in hip districts of expensive cities and moving to buy houses in more affordable cities or the burbs... I suppose I fall into this category but even houses in the burbs seem more expensive than they should be. I’m specifically looking at up and coming towns, not any random burb but buying a house that’s literal…

I was thinking that the high-end vacation towns of the affluent would be a pretty good investment bet, because even when remote work isn't popular there still is high end demand for vacationers. Think places like Jackson Hole, Aspen, Maui, Nantucket, Newport RI, Hilton Head, Scottsdale, etc... could see places like that retaining their value no matter what happens.

Some of those places you listed crashed hard after 2008 and others didn’t. I think there are trends in vacation destinations that can cause speculation. Also, many of the the buyers are leveraging wealth from equities that is more variable than the salaries the average homeowner uses. If there’s a prolonged stock market drop during a recession, many may be forced to liquidate when buyers are fewer and poorer (you’d prefer not to sell anything in a downturn, but the vacation home might be the first to go). I saw people take huge losses on vacation properties after 2008.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#129

Post by katzgrau »

rconti wrote: post #50
katzgrau wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, BWW had the best tap lineup in my area for a long time, which has no shortage of trendy bars.

The first time I walked into a BWW (maybe 10 or 15 years ago) my eyes opened wide when I saw all the taps. My excitement wore off when I realized that it was literally all budweiser products and most of them had the exact same thing.

Ah yea. Good beers took a while to come to my area (maybe 5-10 years ago). I'm guessing other parts of the country might have been a little different, especially as Big Beer tried to catch the craft wave and smaller breweries didn't have any distribution yet. Maybe it's different now in most areas (hopefully)

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#130

Post by swimfar »

refurb wrote: post #114
renewiltord wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No way, man. You have to pay like $1.5 mil for a home in Palo Alto and Mountain View. You do all that and you get a glorified suburb. No way. The city is like 400x as city life for like 1.1x the price.

I would be shocked if one could find a liveable single family home in Palo Alto or Mountain View for $1.5M. Last I looked empty lots went for that much.

By home, do you mean house? Sub-million dollar homes show up all the time in Mountain View, even before Covid. Thinking anything less than a house is unlivable for a family is not the norm in most other parts of the world.
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